Saturday - Jan 19, 2019

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DFS VALUE PLAYS: Week 11

For the next two weeks we won’t have the Los Angeles Rams or Kansas City on the main slate. In addition, Kansas City has two more games that are not on the main slate (Weeks 15 and 16). On the Rams’ side they will also have two games that are off the main slate (Weeks 14 and 15). That means for the remainder of the season, you are unable to play Kareem Hunt and Todd Gurley together on the main slate in Weeks 11, 12, 14, 15 and 16. We could also throw in Week 17 if we assume their prices will be expensive and they both will have playoff and seeding locked up. Patrick Mahomes will also be unavailable for these weeks so I expect quarterback pricing to be fairly favorable on the main slate for the rest of the season.

Quarterbacks

We finally got Patrick Mahomes on the main slate last week and he was the highest-priced quarterback. He was also the highest owned in tournaments at around 13 percent but he didn’t meet value as he scored 20.06 DraftKings (DK) points. The next two highest-owned quarterbacks were Philip Rivers and Ryan Fitzpatrick, who both failed to meet value. The top player on the slate was Mitchell Trubisky, who scored 39 DK points at 6.5 percent ownership. The best value was Blake Bortles scoring 24 DK points at $4,900 on DK with 1.8 percent ownership. The biggest bust was Tom Brady, who scored just 11.76 DK points. Brady has failed to score more than 17 DK points in his last three games.

Dollar Per Point (DPP) Value Plays

(NOTE — FD is FanDuel)

Lamar Jackson (DK: $4,700/$336 DPP — FD: $7,000/$500 DPP)

What we do know is that Joe Flacco is doubtful for this week. He hasn’t yet been ruled out but he hasn’t practice so we can assume he sits. If Flacco is ruled out, it would be between Lamar Jackson or Robert Griffin III who will get the start. They are both priced the same on DK and Griffin comes cheaper on FD. For fantasy purposes we want Jackson to start because of his mobility. Baltimore faces Cincinnati, who is just a mess right now and is on pace to give up the most yards per game of any team in history of the NFL. Cincinnati already allows the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks with 24.2 points per game. I would put together a few lineups and be ready to make the switch if Jackson is not named the starter.

Eli Manning (DK: $5,200/$306 DPP — FD: $6,700/$394 DPP)

Can the New York Giants build from their Monday night win over San Francisco? Manning has had three weeks over expected projections and averaging 20.27 DK points in those games. He faces Tampa Bay, who allows the third-most fantasy points to the position with 24.1 points per game. I expect Saquon Barkley to dominate the touches but he will also get 10-plus targets from Manning. This game has a 2.5-point spread in favor of the Giants and is the third-highest scoring game projected at 52.5 points.

Running Backs

The top owned running backs were Kareem Hunt (33 percent) and Dion Lewis (25 percent), who are killing a ton of lineups. They failed to reach value as Hunt scored just 11.6 DK points and Lewis scored 8.8 DK points. Melvin Gordon was the third-highest-owned running back and he finished with the 27.5 DK points, which was good for eighth-best on the day. The top running back on the slate was Nick Chubb, who scored 38.9 DK points. Chubb just edged out Aaron Jones for best value on the slate. Jones finished with 35.2 DK points. Other good value players were Mark Ingram who scored 28.2 DK points, and LeSean McCoy, who scored 28.2 DK points. Both RBs were priced at $4,500.

$DPP Value Plays

Dion Lewis (DK: $4,800/$383 DPP — FD: $5,900/$536 DPP)

Lewis was the chalk value play last week and burned a bunch of people. I know people will be hesitant to go back to him but you rostered Lewis because he was playing well the previous two weeks, scoring more than 20 DK points in each. This week he faces Indianapolis, who is allowing 27.2 fantasy points to the position and is fourth in the league in receiving yards allowed to running backs (averaging 63.4 receiving yards per game). Many are predicting a 20 percent ownership for Lewis but I think it comes well under that as people try to jam in the higher-priced running backs.

Mark Ingram (DK: $4,700/$362 DPP — FD: $7,100/$592 DPP)

Ingram has had three quiet weeks following his big Monday night comeback game. Last week he and Alvin Kamara torched the Cincinnati defense for 26-plus DK points each. Philadelphia overall this season has played the run well but over the last few weeks it has been gashed by Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott. The Philadelphia pass defense has not played well, which will open up running lanes for New Orleans. New Orleans is an 8.5-point favorite at home and could use Ingram a ton if they jump out to an early lead.

About Walter Collazo

Writer for Fantasy Sharks since 2006. Member of FSTA. Winner of 2014 Fantasy Football Article of the Year Online, awarded by FTSA.