It is chalk week in the NFL and there will be a ton of guys that you would need to get some exposure to in order to win a GPP. Fading some of these guys could work because if they fail to produce it will take a large chunk of the field down in tournament. Injuries and suspensions are shaping up this slate so pay attention to which players are going to have heavy exposure to.
We finally have a slate where we can roster Chiefs and Rams players so expect heavy ownership on the key players. Pat Mahomes is the most expensive player but should still see 12% or more ownership. With the recent news of Kareem Hunt getting released, people will flock to Mahomes expecting the Chiefs to throw more.
$DPP Value Plays
Jameis Winston (DK: $6,000/$300 DPP — FD: $7,500/$375 DPP)
Winston will likely be the next highest owned quarterback on the slate as he faces the Panthers whose defense has faltered the last few weeks. Winston did not play in the first meeting against the Panthers but Ryan Fitzpatrick was able to rack up 4 touchdowns against them. The Panthers allow the 6th most fantasy points to the position and give up 10% more fantasy points to quarterbacks on the road then they do at home.
Lamar Jackson (DK: $5,900/$393 DPP — FD: $7,500/$500 DPP)
Jackson is making his 3rd start and he has played well since taking over for Joe Flacco. He finished with 22 DK points last week and has run for 70 or more yards in each game with one touchdown on the ground. The passing numbers are crap but it’s his rushing ability that makes him valuable. This will be his first game on the road but I feel he will have a high number of rushing attempts. The passing match-up is the best he will face as well. The Falcons are last in the league in passing yards allowed and 28th in passing touchdowns. They allow 22.7 fantasy points to the position and up to 59% more fantasy points at home to quarterbacks.
The bombshell news of the Chiefs releasing Kareem Hunt after video surfaced of his incident back in February will have many fantasy implications. Expect higher ownership than earlier in the week on the high-end Chief players and the highest chalk play at the position to be Spencer Ware.
$DPP Value Plays
Spencer Ware (DK: $4,000/$222 DPP — FD: $5,200/$306 DPP)
With Kareem Hunt out of the picture Ware is now the lead back in Kansas City. This season the Chiefs have given Hunt 15-20 carries on average with Ware getting 2-5 carries per game. The last time Ware had 20 carries in a game was against the Oakland Raiders who they face this week. The Raiders allow the 11th most fantasy points to the position with 26.8 per game. The Raiders are last in the league in rushing yards allowed with 151.4 yards per game and 10 rushing scores.
Phillip Lindsay (DK: $5,400/$318 DPP — FD: $7,000/$438 DPP)
Some people will look to roster the Jacksonville running backs this week but I’m avoiding that train wreck. Instead look to Lindsay who has a great matchup and has been playing well scoring 20+ DK points in 3 of his last 4 games. He faces the Bengals who are 31st in rushing yards allowed with 147.5 yards per game and 14 touchdowns which is tied for 3rd most in the league. The Bengals allow the 2nd most fantasy points to the position with 32.3.
This week expect heavy ownership on Mike Evans, D.J. Moore and Tyreek Hill. In addition, Julio Jones is way too cheap as he is $600 less in Week 13 and has scored 26+ DK points in his last 4 games with 3 touchdowns. The match-up is tough as the Ravens are 4th in the NFL in passing yards allowed but Jones is playing too well not to roster this week.
$DPP Value Plays
Chris Godwin (DK: $3,900/$325 DPP — FD: $5,400/$540 DPP)
DeSean Jackson has been ruled out for this week which will make Godwin the 2nd/3rd receiver behind Mike Evans. We are expecting a high scoring game and Godwin could be matched up with Dante Jackson who has been terrible this season. As I mentioned earlier, the Panthers had given up four touchdowns passing in the previous match-up and they are on a three game losing streak entering this game.
Robby Anderson (DK: $3,500/$350 DPP — FD: $5,000/$625 DPP)
Anderson is a game time decision but if he is able to go he will be a sneaky GPP punt this week. If Josh McCown is under center, we know that he has no problem throwing the ball to Anderson. Anderson is the type of $3K guy that can get you 20 points as we saw back in Week 5 when he scored 30.3 DK points. The Titans are 3rd in the league in fantasy points allowed to receivers with 41.0 points per game.
Keeping with the Chief’s theme this week, I think more people will spend up for Travis Kelce this week. Especially if you consider all the value plays that have opened on this slate. I expect people to play Eric Ebron more and also Rob Gronkowski who didn’t see a price increase.
$DPP Value Plays
Eric Ebron (DK: $4,200/$350 DPP — FD: $5,600/$560 DPP)
Expect Ebron to be one of the highest owned players on the slate but when he’s played with Jack Doyle out, he has produced very well. His price tag is ridiculous considering he has 11 touchdowns on the season. He gets to face the Jaguars who are a mess right now and he just faced a few weeks ago. In that game he was only targeted 3 times but he scored 28.1 DK points and had 3 catches for 69 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jacksonville gave up three tight end touchdowns in that game. Fade at your own risk.
Matt LaCosse (DK: $2,500/$357 DPP — FD: $4,700/$783 DPP)
This week every position is filled with cheap guys filling in for injured or suspended starters and the tight end position has a few. If you are looking to punt way down at the position, LaCosse takes over for Jeff Heuerman who was placed on IR. LaCosse saw his first real action last week and caught 3 passes for 34 yards and a touchdown. The Bengals are 2nd in fantasy points allowed to the position with 16.5 points per game and have given up 7 receiving touchdowns to tight ends this season.
Last week was a very low scoring week for defense as we had only one defense over 15 fantasy points and that was the Ravens. Six of the Top-7 owned defenses all scored similar single-digit points which put most of the field in the same boat. The Chiefs will likely be the most popular unit this week because they face a bad Oakland team that gave up 18 DK points to the Ravens last week.
$DPP Value Plays
Green Bay Packers (DK: $2,800/$280 DPP — FD: $4,400/$440 DPP)
The playoff chances are fading fast and they need this game to get right. While this unit has posted just three games over the season with double-digit points, they face a bad Cardinals team that allows 11.9 fantasy points to the position which is 2nd worst in the league. They allow 3.2 sacks per game which matches the number of sacks the Packers get per game this year. The Cardinals also rank last in the league in points-per-game. The Packers are a 14 point favorite at home.
Miami Dolphins (DK: $2,700/$338 DPP — FD: $4,100/$513 DPP)
Every week one of my setups for scouting the week is checking to see which defense the Bills face. The Dolphins get that matchup this week. The Bills allow the most fantasy point per game to opposing defenses with 12.5 per game including 3 games this season allowing 20+ fantasy points. They give up 3.1 sacks on the season and over one interception per game. Miami is also playing at home where they are a 3.5 point favorite.
Make sure to adjust your lineups accordingly to news and updates from the site. You can find the $DDP Report on the menu bar in the Projections tab.
Good luck in Week 13!