Well this is it, the final week of the regular season for most season long fantasy leagues! I mentioned it a couple of weeks ago but I want to reiterate, the fish are about to jump in the boat! Think about it, over half the teams in every league wont make the playoffs but those owners will still want to play somehow. This is when people turn to DFS more and more and for the first couple of weeks have no clue what they’re doing! Take advantage by jumping in contests on every slate!
Before we dive into our Week 13 DFS value plays lets hold ourselves accountable and see how we did in Week 12:
Ben Roethlisberger QB, Pittsburgh Steelers – 35.54 points
Ben stayed hot as he has traditionally done in years past. Don’t be surprised if he fades on the road at Cincinnati this week.
Jacoby Brissett QB, Indianapolis Colts – 8.44 points
Big let down in a choice match up. It just goes to show that talent does matter despite the match ups.
Alvin Kamara RB, New Orleans Saints – 39.80 points
Week 12 was a great week to take advantage of Kamara’s price so I hope you listened. He won’t be that cheap again for a long time.
Samaje Perine RB, Washington Redskins – 19.00 points
Sometimes all it takes is being the last man standing to be fantasy relevant. We’ll take the 4x return on our investment.
J.D. McKissic RB, Seattle Seahawks – 8.60 points
Still the most valuable Seattle RB… which isn’t saying much these days.
Devontae Booker RB, Denver Broncos – 5.30 points
Just when we thought it might be safe to play Booker… The Denver backfield is a fantasy wasteland at this point.
Jarvis Landry WR, Miami Dolphins – 15.00 points
Just like we thought, Jarvis still got his due and proper despite sub-par QB play.
T.Y. Hilton WR, Indianapolis Colts – 3.50 points
Very disappointing but this is what T.Y. Hilton does. Watch him go nuts this week!
Cooper Kupp WR, L.A. Rams – 22.60 points
Rishard Matthews WR, Tennessee Titans – 0.0 points
A late scratch killed this one but we were able to pivot to Corey Davis without disrupting our budget. Too bad the Tennessee @ Indianapolis game was a huge let down.
Evan Engram TE, New York Giants – 4.80 points
He dropped so many passes! Not sure what to say about this one. Everything was the right match up and talent wise, it all just went so wrong.
Vernon Davis TE, Washington Redskins – 0.0 points
I think the entire DFS world missed on this one. You know it’s not going to happen when you see 3 TE sets and Niles Paul is catching passes. Moving on…
On to Week 13!
Tyrod Taylor QB, Buffalo Bills (DraftKings $5,400/ FanDuel $7,300)
The Patriots are playing much better defense of late so this one might come back to bite me but I just can’t pass on such a good match up at this price. Even after playing solid defense the past 5 weeks, New England still ranks as the 5th most generous match up for opposing passers as they are still quite leaky on defense. Better defense for the Patriots just means they haven’t been ripped for 300+ passing yards and multiple touchdowns through the air since week 6. With New England favored 8.5 points in this game I expect plenty of passing from the Bills in this contest. Rather than try to guess which random receiver will benefit the most, it’s a safer bet to just start the quarterback. Tyrod hasn’t had great passing numbers since returning to action after being benched but he does have 406 total yards and three scores over the last two contests. The Bills will be playing to keep their playoff hopes alive and will pull out all the stops vs. this top-tier foe. Tyrod should be in line for a solid week.
Case Keenum QB, Minnesota Vikings (DraftKings $6,000/ FanDuel $7,600)
So there are a lot of big games this week and the Vikings @ Falcons tilt is no exception. Case Keenum has been red-hot lately, scoring no less than 17.2 points over the past 4 games including 10 total touchdowns over that span. Amazingly, his two most impressive outings over that time frame came on the road in big games at Washington and Detroit. That’s good because this game will be in the Georgia Dome where Matt Ryan traditionally plays his best football. The Falcons are hitting on all cylinders right now offensively and will benefit from the return of Devonta Freeman this week. The over/under on this game is 47 which is on the higher end this week so while the match up doesn’t make Keenum an auto-start on paper his recent play and the potential for a shootout certainly do!
Josh McCown QB, New York Jets (DraftKings $5,500, Fanduel $7,700)
I’m throwing McCown in here this week in case you need to save a couple bucks and aren’t really feeling Tyrod Taylor (completely understand). McCown has the Jets actually playing competitive football at the moment! The Chiefs have allowed the 11th most fantasy points to opposing Quarterbacks this year and McCown is playing his best football currently averaging 254 yards and 2 touchdowns per game over his past six contests. That’s roughly 18 fantasy points per game for McCown which should be his low water mark this week. This is a game the Jets can win and they know it. If that is going to happen it’ll have to be through the air since the Jets can’t seem to establish a respectable rushing attack – they currently rank 20th in total rushing yards on the year. If he hits his fantasy point average of 18 that will be a little over 3.2 times your investment in fantasy points — not a bad return.