Week 13 was filled with value plays who did well and also fell short of meeting expectations. We saw ten players come in with 20 percent or more ownership and another nine players who were at least 15-19 percent owned. That’s the highest we’ve seen this season, and if you hit on the right ones you were way ahead of the field. Of the 19 players in this group, five of them scored 31 or more DraftKings (DK) points. For all those who stuck with Christian McCaffrey, despite his 41 percent ownership, you were rewarded with 34.1 DK points. However for those who thought the loss of Kareem Hunt would generate a huge fantasy day for Spencer Ware and Tyreek Hill, you were met with disappointment as they scored 12 DK points and 6 DK points, respectively.
Week 14 will have similar values and high ownership plays that will likely force you to eat some of the chalk. Christian McCaffrey is now the highest-priced player, yet is projected to be the highest-owned player. The New Orleans trio of Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas are the next three projected to have very high ownership. The value guys will be just as popular as people will look towards Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh and San Francisco to help fit the high-priced studs.
We had three guys take most of the ownership last week as Patrick Mahomes, Cam Newton and Jared Goff were all in double-digit ownership with Mahomes just short of 20 percent owned. Mahomes was the second-highest scoring quarterback on the slate with 33 DK points. Newton scored 22.3 DK points while Goff disappointed with 10.3 DK points. The biggest bust was Goff, who was also the third-most expensive quarterback on the slate. The best value was Josh Allen, who scored 33.74 DK points he was less than 1 percent owned.
$DPP Value Plays
Lamar Jackson (DK: $5,700/$380 DPP — FD: $7,500/$500 DPP)
Jackson is making his fourth start this season. In his three starts he has averaged 19.87 DK points per game. The passing yards have not been there as he hasn’t thrown for more than 178 yards in a game but he has had 71-plus rushing yards in each of those starts. This week he faces Kansas City, who has allowed 21 fantasy points per game. Kansas city hasn’t faced any quarterbacks this season who are a threat to run but Kansas City does allow 5.15 yards per attempt. With the prices of quarterbacks this week, Jackson should be lowly owned.
Matt Ryan (DK: $5,600/$329 DPP — FD: $8,200/$482 DPP)
Ryan is coming off his worst game of the season scoring just 8.64 DK points. Atlanta is coming off its fourth loss in a row while Green Bay is coming off its fifth loss in their last six games. Green Bay also fired their head coach but somehow, both teams are still in the playoff picture for the Wild Card. I like Atlanta’s chances in this game. Green Bay allows 16.5 fantasy points to the position. Ryan makes for a nice value stack with Julio Jones who is priced at $7,900 on DK.
The running back position was heavily concentrated between six players. You had McCaffrey, Todd Gurley and Saquon Barkley who were the expensive players while Spencer Ware, Aaron Jones and Philip Lindsay were the value plays. McCaffrey, Gurley and Lindsay had 100 DK points combined but if you used Barkley, Jones and Ware you fell 52.5 points behind. The biggest bust was David Johnson, who scored just 8.2 DK points as the fifth-most expensive running back. The best value was Tarik Cohen, who scored the most running back points with 37.64 DK points.
$DPP Value Plays
Jeffery Wilson (DK: $3,800/$500 DPP — FD: $5,600/$500DPP)
Last week Wilson stepped in for an injured Matt Breida and did well. This week he will have the bulk of the carries for almost the minimum price. The matchup isn’t ideal but for the price you shouldn’t worry. Denver is allowing 24.4 fantasy points to the position. Wilson should make his value with receiving as he was targeted nine times last week, catching eight for 73 yards. If he gets into the end zone, you’re golden.
Jaylen Samuels (DK: $3,700/$231 DPP — FD: $4,600/$329 DPP)
I expect Samuels to be just as popular this week. He will take over for an injured James Conner. We can expect a more committee approach, however, as the team still has Stevan Ridley. The matchup is good against Oakland, who is allowing 26.2 fantasy points per game to running backs with eight touchdowns on the ground allowed this season. Let us hope that he will not have an average day like Spencer Ware did.