Week 15 looks to be a tough slate where value is once again tough to find and studs such as Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook are hard to consider a lock. For McCaffrey, we have seen him miss value two weeks in a row and his salary remains in the $10,000 range. Dalvin Cook is in a similar situation as he is priced just below $9,000 on DraftKings but has missed value in 3 straight games. Final value on Sunday will influence the amount of ownership they will get. I would rather go with McCaffrey if I had to choose between the two.
The ownership last week went to Lamar Jackson slightly above the rest of the quarterbacks at 9% but many did not spend too far down as the majority of ownership went to quarterbacks in the $6K range. Jackson posted just 20.8 DraftKings points, his lowest scoring since week 5. The highest scoring quarterback was Drew Brees with 43.06 DraftKings points. He was just 3% owned in tournaments. Jameis Winston hit 6X value scoring 40.74 DraftKings points. Drew Lock was the 2nd best value play behind Winston scoring 27.86 DraftKings points at $5,100. The biggest bust was Aaron Rodgers scoring just 12.4 DraftKings points at 5th highest ownership and 3rd highest salary on the slate.
$DPP Value Plays
Kyler Murray ARI (DK: $5,600/$350 DPP — FD: $7,600/$475 DPP)
Murray hasn’t played well the last few weeks leading to a depressed price point and non-existent ownership. In the 3 games prior he was averaging 26.8 DraftKings points with a price above $6K. He faces a tough match-up this week against the Browns but the game has the 3rd highest implied total on the slate at 49 points. That means Vegas is expecting a lot of points to be scored and in order for that to happen, Murray would need to put points on the board. Sneaky play here.
Eli Manning NYG (DK: $5,200/$347 DPP — FD: $6,800/$453 DPP)
Manning got the start last week and put up a very good first half against the Eagles. There was very little happening in the second half and the Giants gave away the game in overtime. This will likely be Manning’s last home game start as a Giant and he needs a win to get back to .500 win percentage for his career. He faces the Dolphins who are 23rd in pass defense allowing 256.6 passing yards per game with 31 touchdowns given up. Over the last 4 weeks they have allowed the second most DraftKings points to the position at 25.89 per game. Emotions will run high in this game.
David Blough DET (DK: $5,300/$294 DPP — FD: $7,300/$406 DPP)
Every week the match-up against the Buccaneers has been a good source for DFS scoring. Last week Jacoby Brissett put up 22.64 DraftKings points without a viable passing option. Blough in a touch match-up last week put up 205 yards and touchdown. He should do better in this match-up which has a decent implied total of 45.5 points. The Buccaneers rank 31st in passing defense allowing 278.8 yards per game with 29 touchdowns given up.
When value opens up on a slate where value is hard to come by, you can expect heavy ownership. When Le’Veon Bell was ruled out, Bilal Powell became a popular play at just $3,500. He finished with 10.8 DraftKings points at 31% ownership, the highest on the slate at the position. He was not the best value play option as DeAndre Washington at $3,000 scored 21.6 DraftKings points. The biggest bust was Alvin Kamara at 15% ownership scoring just 7.3 DraftKings points.
$DPP Value Plays
Boston Scott PHI (DK: $3,000/$1,500 DPP — FD: $4,700/$2,350 DPP)
Jordan Howard is ruled out this week and Miles Sanders will be the starter once again. However, his price has risen to $5,900. Last week we saw Scott emerge as the backup to Sanders scoring 24.8 DraftKings points. He received just 10 carries but saw 6 targets out of the backfield. Even if he sees a small amount of touches compared to last week, he is the minimum price on DraftKings. The Redskins are 27th in rushing defense allowing 134.8 yards per game.
Adrian Peterson WAS (DK: $4,400/$360 DPP — FD: $6,300/$525 DPP)
Peterson has been a decent value option the last two games averaging 14.75 DraftKings points. Derrius Guice is hurt once again and the Redskins are thin at the position. The Eagles have a tough run defense allowing just the 3rd least amount of rushing yards per game with 89.6 yards per game. The Eagles do allow a ton of passing yards which will allow the Redskins to drive down the field and then Peterson can punch it in.
DeAndre Washington OAK (DK: $4,700/$522 DPP — FD: $6,300/$788 DPP)
Washington stepped in for the injured Josh Jacobs last week and produced well. Jacobs will likely be a game time decision and if he were to miss, would make Washington a good value option. Last week Washington carried the ball 14 times and saw 7 targets. He has a good matchup this week against the Jaguars who are 30th in run defense allowing 141.1 yards per game with 19 touchdowns on the ground.