We are now into Week 15 where the DFS plays can get dicey. Injuries and teams no longer in the playoff hunt can make putting together a lineup this week a nightmare. Everyone is watching the reports to see if players such as James Conner, T.Y. Hilton, Matt Breida and Matthew Stafford will play as they all are questionable. Some players have already been ruled out such as Odell Beckham Jr., and DeSean Jackson.
This week I expect the running backs at the top to be very chalky as the pricing on quarterbacks are cheap with no one over $6,700 on DK. Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley are the most expensive players on the slate as they are both over $9,000 on DK. I expect the ownership for the high priced receivers to be lower as Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Adam Thielen and Julio Jones are all over $8K.
The quarterbacks were relatively cheap last week so the ownership was decently spread among the top options. Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees led the ownership with around 11% each. Rodgers was able to make value while Brees disappointed with 15.94 in a match-up he had put up over 30 early in the season. The biggest bust was Philip Rivers scoring 13.5 DK points. Dak Prescott was the top quarterback on the slate scoring 30.4 DK points. The best value was Nick Mullens scoring 22.28 DK points at $4,600 and was 1.5% owned.
$DPP Value Plays
Nick Foles (DK: $4,500/$237 DPP — FD: $6,000/$316 DPP)
Carson Wentz might be out for the rest of the season with a back injury so Foles will likely get the start this week and is super cheap. The match-up is not great but you don’t need a ton of points for Foles to make value. The last time Foles started he put up 20.16 DK points but the match-up was better. I think Foles can outperform his price because back when Foles started in Week 2, the Eagles were able to run the ball more as they rushed for two scores in that game. What is nice though is that playing Foles, allows you to pay up at running back.
Nick Mullens (DK: $4,800/$282 DPP — FD: $6,600/$388 DPP)
Mullens now has back-to-back weeks over 20 fantasy points but yet his price is still under $5K on Draftkings. These teams played two games ago and Mullens put up 414 passing yards and two touchdowns on the road. I am not saying he puts up 400+ yards but in the seven games since their bye week, the Seahawks have allowed 300+ passing yards in four of those games and two touchdowns in all but one of those games.
Last week we had Jeffery Wilson and Jaylen Samuels as the top value options on the slate. The majority of the field played Samuels at 33% ownership while Wilson came in at 28%. There were a lot of people that played them both together. Samuels had a decent day with 16.2 DK points while Wilson disappointed with just 10.6 DK points. The next highest owned running backs were at the top of the salaries as Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara were all 20% owned on average; Saquon Barkley was about 17% owned on average. The biggest bust was Justin Jackson scoring just 5.5 DK points at 12% ownership. The best value on the slate was Joe Mixon scoring 27.5 DK points.
$DPP Value Plays
Kenneth Dixon (DK: $3,500/$389 DPP — FD: $5,700/$713 DPP)
Last week against the Chiefs, Dixon received a 2-to-1 carry share with Gus Edwards. Coach Harbaugh indicated that Dixon will get more opportunity this week and Gus Edwards has been slowed by an ankle injury. If he is splitting the touches with Edwards, it makes Dixon the better play as he is $900 cheaper on DraftKings. He also finds himself in a good matchup against the Buccaneers who give up the 5th most fantasy points with 29.3 per game with 14 rushing scores.
Ito Smith (DK: $3,700/$617 DPP — FD: $5,300/$1,060 DPP)
Smith is a riskier play than Tevin Coleman but last week he carried the ball 11 times, one more than Coleman and with the playoff chances pretty slim for the Falcons, Smith could get additional touches. The matchup this week is good against the Cardinals who allow the 4th most fantasy points to the position with 30.4 per game with 16 touchdowns allowed. The Cardinals are also out of the playoff chase so we could see them play more inexperienced guys in this game.