Sunday - Jan 20, 2019

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DFS VALUE PLAYS: Week 2

Week one was covered in chalk. A good majority of the players we had ranked high going into week one produced, which drove the overall scoring way up. The top lineup in the $5M contest went to ironically a user named chalk. This lineup produced 301.18 Draftkings points. The majority of the players were very highly owned with the exception of the 3 player Tampa Bay stack he used which went very under owned. Last year’s contest week 1 Milly Maker scored 198.88. DK points. That would have been good for just 28,975th place this week.

The majority of my lineups scored over 150 points with my best team scoring 208.16 on a Saints stack with Drew Brees, Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara. In the lineup that featured 6 of the players I wrote up last week, I scored 168.88 even with a 0 from Marquise Goodwin.

Quarterbacks

In week one we had three quarterbacks score over 30 points. 2 of the 3 were the highest owned QBs in Drew Brees (12.63% owned) and Philip Rivers (10.36% owned) but Ryan Fitzpatrick lead all QBs with 45.28 DK points and was only 2.09% owned across tournaments. Most of the quarterbacks carried low ownership as they saw single digit ownership across the board. The best values after Fitzpatrick were Case Keenum, Tyrod Taylor and Joe Flacco scoring 21+ points for under $6,000. The worst values were Cam Newton, Jimmy Garoppolo and Dak Prescott who scored plus/minus of -8 or more. The biggest bust went to Deshaun Watson who scored 13.04 DK points for a plus/minus value of -12.56 and was 4th highest QB owned at 9.52%.

$DPP Value Plays

Ryan Tannehill (DK: $5,300/$331 DPP — FD: $6,200/$388 DPP)

Tannehill was OK in week one scoring just 15.6 DK points which didn’t kill you at his price. He’s priced the same this week on DK and I think he can put up better numbers than the Lions did against this Jets defense.  Despite week one’s win, the Jets defense struggled last season and lack of a pass rush which will allow Tannehill to make some throws. DeVante Parker remains limited so stick to a stack with Kenny Stills.                                                                                          

Alex Smith (DK: $6,000/$286 DPP — FD: $7,100/$338 DPP)            

Smith prices out as the best value in the DPP model. Last week he finished with 19.6 DK points which allowed him to reach value. He faces a Colts team that gave up two touchdowns to Andy Dalton in Week 1. The majority of the yards Smith had last week went to the RBs and TE which the Colts struggle to stop. If stacking I would pair him with Jordan Reed or Chris Thompson.

Running Backs

The chalk at this position hit just about everywhere. Melvin Gordon and Alvin Kamara were the top high priced options and James Conner did not disappoint as the best value option. Some of the other highly owned RBs did come up short as David Johnson and Christian McCaffrey failed to meet value. The running backs in the middle that went 10%-15% owned were the real lineup killers. Kareem Hunt, Leonard Fournette, Rex Burkhead and Alex Collins all failed to reach double digit points. The Redskin RBs were the highest scoring players that received the lowest ownership. Chris Thompson was just 0.81% owned across tournaments. Adrian Peterson came in at 1.72%. Each of them scored over 20 DK points.

$DPP Value Plays

Royce Freeman (DK: $4,300/$331 DPP — FD: $6,000/$500 DPP)

This week is going to be tougher as the obvious guys have been priced up so finding under $5K RBs for your flex is going to be tougher. Freeman had 15 carries for 71 yards for 7.1 DK points. Had he scored he would have had a good return considering his price. This week he faces the Raiders who could have given up twice the amount of rushing yards had the Rams fed Todd Gurley more. The team traded its best defensive player and now lost their best run stopper Justin Elis for the season. I expect Freeman to get more touches this week despite being in a committee situation.

Dion Lewis (DK: $5,000/$333 DPP — FD: $6,500/$500 DPP)

Lewis was a mid-round target in drafts in season long leagues but when it came to week one, everyone forgot about him. Lewis came in at just 1.58% owned in tournaments but had a big day putting up 22 DK points. This week he will likely go under owned again as James Conner’s salary has shot up to $6,700 on DK. If you look at the RBs around the same price as Lewis, there is no one really you would consider over him. The Texans gave up 107 rushing yards last week to the Patriot RBs and 5 rec for 43 yards with a TD.

About Walter Collazo

Writer for Fantasy Sharks since 2006. Member of FSTA. Winner of 2014 Fantasy Football Article of the Year Online, awarded by FTSA.