Thursday - Aug 22, 2019

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DFS VALUE PLAYS: Week 4

This week we see the first of the NFL bye weeks but we aren’t losing much in terms of key players. Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey are the only ones that really impact lineups. Injuries and priced up players have made this roster construction tricky for the Sunday main slate. Most notably in the $5,500 to $6,500 range for running backs where we have 5 running backs questionable and two running backs out. That means that the majority of people are either going to spend up for Alvin Kamara, Melvin Gordon or Saquon Barkley or they are going to pay down to value guys like Sony Michel and maybe Dion Lewis. That will affect the rest of the lineup construction as they will either have to pay down at quarterback and receiver to fit those running backs or if they are paying down, then they can afford the expensive combos such as Drew Brees and Michael Thomas against the Giants.

Quarterback

Last week Matt Ryan, Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes generated the highest ownership with Ryan scoring the highest among the three with 43.16 DK points. Drew Brees who was 8.3% owned, led all quarterbacks with 43.54 DK points. Jimmy Garappolo was 5% owned and had a decent outing before injuring his knee. He will be out for the season. The top 7 owned quarterbacks performed well scoring at least 22 DK points. The highest priced bust was Carson Wentz who only scored 13.2 DK points. The best value was Josh Allen who scored 27.74 DK points who was barely owned at .2% across tournaments.

$DPP Value Plays

Andy Dalton (DK: $5,400/$284 DPP — FD: $7,400/$389 DPP)

Dalton has played well in back-to-back weeks posting 21+ DK points in each game. A.J. Green was knocked out of last week’s game with a groin injury but his status is looking good for this week. Dalton has become comfortable with Tyler Boyd as well who I wrote up last week. Boyd has seen 16 targets over the last two weeks scoring 49.8 DK points over that span and looks to have another good match-up this week. The Falcons defense has been rocked by a number of injuries and the last two games it has shown. They have allowed 731 passing yards and 6 touchdowns in those games. Of course they were to Cam Newton and Drew Brees but we could still expect 275+ passing yards and two scores from Dalton.

Eli Manning (DK: $5,600/$350 DPP — FD: $7,100/$444 DPP)

I think we see the ownership for Manning go up as we get closer to Sunday. Manning has yet to score more than 20 DK points but in this match-up I think we can expect some good return for his salary. The last time these two teams played it was a similar situation with the Saints running a high powered offense with no defense to complement it and the Giants are in a similar situation. In that game we saw Eli post his best games ever where he threw for 350 yards and 6 touchdowns just to keep pace. The Saints this season have allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks with 32.3 per game. Even Engram is going to miss a few weeks so we should continue to see Sterling Shepard pick up those targets.

Running Backs

Running back was the downfall of most lineups last week. People were heavy into Corey Clement and Latavius Murray and both failed to produce. Kareem Hunt and Tevin Coleman were decent but not as good as Alvin Kamara who out produced all RBs with 37 DK points. Everyone priced $6,500 and up performed well. The biggest bust was Kenyan Drake who scored just 3 DK points on 9% ownership. Best value on the board was Adrian Peterson scoring 3rd highest points with 27 DK points and was only 1% owned. Chris Carson was also a good value scoring 23 DK points.

$DPP Value Plays

Carlos Hyde (DK: $5,500/$344 DPP — FD: $6,800/$486 DPP)

The loss of Khalil Mack has hurt the Raiders defense. Although they shut down Miami last week they allowed 110+ rushing yards to running backs with 26.4 fantasy points on average. Even though Cleveland is playing on the road, the Raiders will be focusing on Baker Mayfield which will allow Hyde to find running lanes. Last week he ran for almost 100 yards and scored two touchdowns. If he gets close to 100 yards and scores he will more than exceed value.

 James White (DK: $5,400/$386 DPP — FD: $6,100/$508 DPP)

Rex Burkhead has joined Jeremy Hill on IR helping clear up the running back situation in New England. The Patriots RBs last week had Sony Michel receive the carries while James White caught the passes. Now many people are going to gravitate to Michel because he was the preseason sleeper pick and has the cheaper price tag at $4,300 on DK. However, the Patriots have lost two straight and face division rival Dolphins at home. They have won the last 7 home games against them. The Dolphins have allowed two 100-yard runners this season and give up 28.6 fantasy points per game to running backs.

About Walter Collazo

Writer for Fantasy Sharks since 2006. Member of FSTA. Winner of 2014 Fantasy Football Article of the Year Online, awarded by FTSA.