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DFS VALUE PLAYS: Week 4

Well this week was a wild one, starting out with a Thursday night shootout that was supposed to be a low scoring affair. The over/under in the Rams @ 49ers game was 40… The final point total was twice that! Anyone who claims they saw that coming is a liar but this game is a perfect example of just how unpredictable fantasy football can be. Before we try to discern the best week 4 DFS value plays, lets take a look back at how we did in Week 3:

Kirk Cousins, QB, Washington Redskins – 29.80 points

Thanks in large part to Chris Thompson, we hit the nail on the head here. It is still concerning to see that none of Cousins’  touchdowns went to Terrelle Pryor or Jamison Crowder.

Andy Dalton, QB Cincinnati Bengals – 16.28 points

Just missed the 20 point mark on this one but Dalton still put up a good fight for his price. Better days are just around the corner.

Theo Riddick, RB Detroit Lions – 7.80 points

Ameer Abdullah, RB Detroit Lions – 11.60 points

Life is so much better (for fantasy purposes) when only one Lion RB is healthy. Its going to be a crap shoot for the foreseeable future with this nearly dead even time share.

Ty Montgomery, RB Green Bay Packers – 13.00 points

Montgomery is averaging over 19 touches per game through 3 weeks. He didn’t hit pay dirt this week and the usage is there. I’ll be using him every week regardless of matchup.

Todd Gurley, RB Los Angeles Rams – 40.80 points

Nailed this pick! Gurley absolutely went off in a game that was supposed to yield only 40 total points between the two teams. The return on investment we saw here was among the best among all DFS slates in week 3. He looks to be the real deal this season, keep rolling him out there.

Frank Gore, RB Indianapolis Colts – 13.00 points

Gore’s value, like many players lies in his touchdown scoring. We picked a game where he was likely to score and he did. Expect this to be about his average high-water mark for the season.

Kelvin Benjamin, WR Carolina Panthers – 2.80 points

An injury derailed this pick but it could have also been bad quarterback play. Cam’s current passer rating of 69.7 is 28th in the league.

Devin Funchess, WR Carolina Panthers – 9.80 points

Again, great match-up derailed by “iffy” quarterback play. Not a terrible outing for the price but I expected more given the match-up.

DeVante Parker, WR Miami Dolphins – 21.66 points

Miami’s offense was off track all day. Parker was in danger of a huge let down day but saved this outing pretty much for the final drive – capped off with Miami’s only TD as time expired.

Terrelle Pryor WR, Washington Redskins – 3.90 points

Jamison Crowder WR, Washington Redskins – 10.20 points

This could have been so much better for both players had Kirk Cousins’ touchdowns gone to one of them and not Vernon Davis, Josh Doctson (remember him?) and Chris Thompson. Sometimes it just doesn’t work out.

Danny Amendola WR, New England Patriots – 7.80 points

Chris Hogan, Brandin Cooks and Rob Gronkowski ate up all 5 of Tom Brady’s touchdowns but the fact that Brady slung 5 scores, tells me this was a fine enough pick, it just didn’t hit. Maybe next week?

Jack Doyle TE, Indianapolis Colts – 2.60 points

There’s no way anybody could have predicted a game like that from T.Y. Hilton… 153 yards and score came completely out of nowhere! Add in two rushing scores from QB Jacoby Brissett and and rushing score from Frank Gore and there was’t much more to go around.

Jared Cook TE, Oakland Raiders – 14.30 points

For as bad as the Raiders offense looked, Jared Cook still got his. He scored their only touchdown of the night and proved once again that the Redskins are a great match-up for opposing tight ends.

I hope you cashed in some week 3 GPPs like I did! Lets take a look at some guys you can spend wisely on in week 4!

Quarterback

Deshaun Watson QB, Houston Texans (DraftKings $5,100 / FanDuel $7,300)

The Tennessee Titans were just ripped to shreds by Russell Wilson in Week 3 to the tune of 373 passing yards, 4 touchdowns and 27 rushing yards. They now head down to Houston to take on the Texans and their dynamic rookie passer who has been getting better by the week. Watson has increased his passing totals each week and is fresh off his best game of the year.  He gave the Patriots a run for their money while posting 301 yards passing, 2 touchdowns and 41 yards on the ground. This Titan’s secondary is very beatable, just ask Deandre Hopkins who traditionally crushes the boys from Nashville – and by the way, leads the NFL in targets with 39. Lamar Miller is trending down right now and the strength of the Titan’s defense is without a doubt their front seven. Expect the Texan’s offense to lean on Watson both through the air and on the ground from the get go in this contest. If Watson can build on his Week 3 success, the recipe is here for a monster fantasy day at a bargain price!

Trevor Siemian QB, Denver Broncos (DraftKings $5,200 / FanDuel $7,500)

After posting back to back 20+ point efforts Siemian fell flat on the road at Buffalo. A visit from the Raiders should get the young signal caller back on track! Oakland has given up 5 passing touchdowns and 531 passing yards to opposing quarterbacks over the past two contests which is exactly what Siemian needs after putting up a sub 10 point performance in week 3. He is surrounded by weapons and this match-up at home is perfect. He’s not super sneaky but I expect his ownership to be down a little bit coming off a brutal outing in Week 3. At this price you should have no trouble fitting him into your lineups. Start with confidence, he’ll be returning to his 20+ point status this week.

About David Olivarez

David has been writing fantasy football content steadily since 2012 on the web and has been a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association since 2014. He focuses on Daily Fantasy Sports and Trade Analysis. Feel free to ask him questions on Twitter!