Tuesday - Feb 19, 2019

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DFS VALUE PLAYS: Week 5

Week 4 was pretty brutal in the injury department. My condolences if you owned Dalvin Cook or Chris Carson in your season long leagues. We also may have lost Ty Montgomery and Davante Adams for a bit, all of which were likely key pieces to your traditional fantasy teams. This is one of the reasons DFS exists! I wish all of them a speedy recovery but I’m mainly a DFS player these days so every week I have a brand new roster! What’s not to love?

So last week went pretty well. I didn’t crush any large GPP’s but we fared pretty well across the board. Lets check out how our Week 4 DFS value plays panned out:

Deshaun Watson, QB Houston Texans – 34.72 points

Boom! If you started Watson this week odds are good you cashed somewhere. Glad to see the dynamic rookie get rolling albeit in a primo match-up.

Trevor Siemian, QB Denver Broncos – 11.26 points

Oh Trevor, this could have been such a good game for you. This low scoring affair left much to be desired especially in GPP’s where I started Siemian over Watson…

Leonard Fournette, RB Jacksonville Jaguars – 24.50 points

The rookie rusher has been as constant as the North Star. Keep plugging him in and don’t be shy to spend up in good match-ups.

Dalvin Cook, RB Minnesota Vikings – 13.40 points

He was starting to roll once again before a non-contact knee injury. Damn shame for the young running back. Hope he bounces back next year.

Chris Carson, RB Seattle Seahawks – 9.60 points

Another brutal injury to a young rusher. Seeing Carson get bent backwards was rough, especially as he was just starting to get traction in the 4th quarter.

Andre Ellington, RB Arizona Cardinals – 19.40 points

The sneaky, sneaky PPR play paid off! 9 receptions will do that for you. Keep an eye on Ellington’s price point, he looks to be the back to play in the AZ backfield.

Marqise Lee, WR Jacksonville Jaguars – 3.80 points

I might be swearing off all Jaguars not named Fournette or D/ST.

Adam Thielen, WR Minnesota Vikings – 9.90 points

Thielen had another consistent outing but once again missed the end-zone. Better weeks ahead and he’s yet to full blown “kill” any lineups for me.

DeVante Parker, WR Miami Dolphins – 12.90 points

Jay Cutler. Thats all I have to say. He is going to hit but I’ll miss his first big week before I feel confident going over 20% exposure in my DFS lineups again.

Larry Fitzgerald WR, Arizona Cardinals – 13.20 points

Saved his day with a last second touchdown to win it but this game was a let down coming off his week 3 explosion.

Travis Kelce TE, Kansas City Chiefs – 27.40 points

You can always count on death, taxes and any tight end playing the Redskins. I hope you coughed up the money for Kelce like I told you to, he was the difference maker on Monday night.

O.J. Howard TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers  – 14.30 points

Cameron Brate TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers  – 18.00 points

Great to see both Tampa Tight ends get loose in this juicy match-up! The Giants are very much in that Browns/Redksins category when it comes to “defending” opposing tight ends.

On to week 5!

Quarterbacks

Jameis Winston QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (DraftKings $6,000 FanDuel $7,700)

The over/under for Thursday night’s game has risen to 54.5 with the Patriots favored by 5.5. The oddsmakers were a bit off last week but given the way these two defenses have played this year I think its safe to expect this to be a high scoring affair. The Patriots have given up a league worst 1341 passing yards and 11 touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks this year and the Buccaneers haven’t been much better. The Bucs’ numbers would look almost as bad as that of the Patriots if you average out what they’ve done through 3 games across 4 contests. Remember, they missed week 1 due to Hurricane Irma but taking their numbers from weeks 2-4 and adding another game brings them to roughly 1,277 passing yards allowed and 8 touchdowns. Not a perfect science but those numbers would give them the second highest total passing yards allowed and have them tied for 4th most passing touchdowns allowed. Both quarterbacks should have nice fantasy outings but Jameis is considerably cheaper than Tom Brady this week and the far better value play.

Dak Prescott QB, Dallas Cowboys (DraftKings $6,800 / FanDuel $7,700)

The second highest projected point total of the week comes from the Green Bay @ Dallas match-up. With a 52.5 point over/under this looks like another great place to invest your DFS budget in week 5. The Packers defense hasn’t been overly generous to opposing quarterbacks but they are certainly beatable. Dak can get it done by air or by ground and has put together back-to-back 20+ point outings. With the expected fireworks in this contest he could easily cross the 30+ point mark this week especially now that Ezekiel Elliott is more involved in the passing game – those dumps and screens count! Zeke has 16 receptions on the year and the Packers have given up 22 receptions along with 2 touchdowns by air to opposing running backs so far in 2017. There is room to work here for this talented offense so while i’d love to roster Aaron Rodgers, much like Brady vs. Winston in the Tampa/New England game, Rodgers’ counter-part Prescott gives you much more bang for your buck.

About David Olivarez

David has been writing fantasy football content steadily since 2012 on the web and has been a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association since 2014. He focuses on Daily Fantasy Sports and Trade Analysis. Feel free to ask him questions on Twitter!