This week we find our first short slate. Only 10 games on the main with the game in London between the Buccaneers and the Panthers kick off before the 1PM games. We also have four teams off on a bye as Bills, Bears, Colts and Raiders are all off.
With the limit on the number of games, expect the ownership on the popular plays to be higher than normal. Players such as Le’Veon Bell, Austin Hooper and DeAndre Hopkins could see ownership over 30%.
We also have a number of injuries and game time decisions to monitor as the games approach. Todd Gurley, David Johnson, Alvin Kamara and Tyreek Hill are just some of the players we are keeping an eye on that will change lineup construction this week.
The Texans and Falcons game had a big impact on Week 5 as the two highest owned quarterbacks put up the top two scores of the week. Deshaun Watson scored 44.74 DraftKings points and Matt Ryan had 35.9 DraftKings points. Lamar Jackson was the most disappointing quarterback as the highest priced player at the position but only had 14.44 Draftkings points. The best value was Teddy Bridgewater with 31.26 DraftKings points at $5,200.
$DPP Value Plays
Gardner Minshew JAX (DK: $5,000/$357 DPP — FD: $6,900/$531 DPP)
Minshew has seen minimal ownership the past few weeks but he has produced at a good price. Last week against the Panthers, he put up 374 yards passing with 2 touchdowns. He has thrown for two touchdowns in 4 of the 5 games he played this season. He is averaging 19.5 DraftKings points per game and is facing the Saints that allow 255 passing yards per game with 8 touchdowns and allow 24.18 DraftKing points per game to the position. His price has dropped $300 after putting up almost 30 fantasy points last week.
Case Keenum WAS (DK: $5,000/$313 DPP — FD: $6,500/$406 DPP)
The team has fired head coach Jay Gruden and re-instated Keenum as the starter. Keenum will likely have Terry McLaurin back this week and perhaps Vernon Davis if Davis clears the concussion protocol. Keenan in 4 starts has averaged 15.7 DraftKings points and will get the only matchup this season where the team has a chance to win. The Dolphins were off last week but still rank first in DraftKings points allowed to quarterbacks with 27.9 points per game. They have also given up an average of 3 touchdowns a game.
Kirk Cousins MIN (DK: $5,200/$325 DPP — FD: $6,800/$425 DPP)
Last week Cousins had his best game of the season passing for 306 yards and 2 touchdowns. He also completed 81% of his passes. He faces the Eagles this week that can be beat through the air as they are 27th in passing defense allowing 271.2 passing yards per game with 9 touchdowns. The Vikings are favored at home this week. We still haven’t seen a big game out of Stefon Diggs so this could be his breakout game.
Christian McCaffrey was the third highest owned running back last week but posted 50.7 DraftKings points. David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott were higher owned but they failed to score over 20 DraftKings points. The biggest bust was Joe Mixon at 10% ownership scoring 11.9 DraftKings points. The best value was Josh Jacobs scoring 32.3 DraftKings points at $4,500
$DPP Value Plays
Malcolm Brown LAR (DK: $4,300/$473 DPP — FD: $4,800/$800 DPP)
Todd Gurley has been ruled out this week and Brown will get the start. The matchup is not great as he would face the 49ers that are 5th in the league in run defense allowing 81.8 rushing yards per game with no touchdowns allowed on the ground. However, they can’t keep teams out of the endzone all season and this game has the 3rd highest implied total on the slate at 50.5. Brown should be able to reach value with the amount of touches he will get.
Kenyan Drake MIA (DK: $4,400/$367 DPP — FD: $5,600/$560 DPP)
Drake has not had a situation where the Dolphins weren’t losing by a ton to be involved enough in the offense. That changes this week with a matchup against the Redskins who are just as bad as the Dolphins this season. The Redskins are 28th in the NFL in run defense allowing 144.0 yards per game with 4 touchdowns. They also allow 21.6 fantasy points per game. Adrian Peterson is getting a ton of ownership but Drake should outperform him this week.
Latavius Murray NOS (DK: $3,700/$463 DPP — FD: $5,000/$714 DPP)
Alvin Kamara popped up on the injury report this week with an ankle injury. If Murray gets the start, he will have a really good matchup against the Jaguars who have been bad against running backs the last few weeks. They are 25th in the league against the run allowing 136.6 yards per game with 6 touchdowns. They had no answer last week for Christian McCaffrey. Murray is not McCaffrey or Kamara for sure but he can still have a big game at a very cheap price point against a team that allows 28.88 DraftKings points per game.
We had some mixed results last week among the highest owned players. Auden Tate was the highest owned receiver with his price and matchup but ended with 11.6 DraftKings points. It didn’t kill you but it certainly kept you from taking down any GPPs. Michael Thomas was the 2nd highest owned player and he came through with 44.2 DraftKings points. He came in 2nd as the top scoring player at the position behind Will Fuller who put up 56.7 DraftKings points and was the best value. The biggest bust was Julio Jones who had a prime matchup but only scored 7.2 DraftKings points at 20% ownership across tournaments.
$DPP Value Plays
Jamison Crowder NYJ (DK: $4,000/$571 DPP — FD: $5,400/$573 DPP)
The Jets are underpriced this week and will have Sam Darnold back at quarterback. While Le’Veon Bell gets a boost because of Darnold, so does the passing attack. Crowder in Week 1 was target a staggering 17 times. He caught 14 passes for 99 yards and scored 24.3 DraftKings points. He could easily see 10 targets this week and go over 100 yards while the defense focuses on stopping Bell. It’s a tough matchup against the cowboys but he should make value due to volume of targets.
Preston Williams (DK: $4,100/$683 DPP — FD: $5,900/$738 DPP)
At the similar price as Crowder, Williams is in play in the worst game of the century. Many people will gravitate to DeVante Parker but Williams is Josh Rosen’s preferred target. The Redskins are just as bad at pass defense as the Dolphins so this could be a crap show on both ends. The Redskins are the 3rd worst team against receivers allowing 45.24 per game. Outside of Williams and Kenyan Drake, there isn’t anyone else on the Dolphins I want in GPPs.
Byron Pringle KCC (DK: $3,500/$800 DPP — FD: $4,500/$900 DPP)
Sammy Watkins is expected to sit out this week and Tyreek Hill looks to be a true game time decision. If Pringle draws the start, he has a chance to see 8-10 targets again. Last week in a very low scoring game, he had 6 receptions for 103 and 1 touchdown. This game has the 2nd highest total on the slate with 55 points. The Texans allow the 6th most DraftKings points to the position with 41.2 points per game. If Hill plays, I will not use Pringle.