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DIARY OF A FANTASY VIRGIN: Championship Weekend

It is championship weekend and I went 4-0 over last weekend. The home teams were 3-1. The one loss came by way of Tennessee, who went to Baltimore and just messed up Baltimore who had done well over the season. Coach Mike Vrabel has now gone to two pretty impressive places and pulled out a new-old victory; just run until they stop you. If anyone wants to know the difference between a quarterback who manages a game and a quarterback who paces the game just put in Ryan Tannehill as the former and Patrick Mahomes as the latter.

We are at the penultimate week of the 100th season of the NFL and the only thing we know is that there will be two new participants in the Super Bowl this year.

The Final 4 NFL Style

The NFC two finalists are Green Bay and San Francisco. The AFC is Tennessee and Kansas City. Can Tennessee keep it going and win its third straight road game (all in upset fashion) to get to the Super Bowl? Will Kansas City deliver on their home turf? Can Green Bay avenge a blowout earlier in the year on Sunday Night Football to a very balanced San Francisco team? Let us find out.

Sunday’s Games

In the first matchup on Sunday, Tennessee – who got in with a win on the last day of the regular season – is visiting Kansas City’s prolific offense at Arrowhead Stadium. It is a crazy time for Kansas City, coming off of last game’s very slow start (zero points in the first quarter, 51 points going away in the next three quarters). I am sticking to my prediction and if Vrabel can hold Kansas City to 13 points or less, Tennessee will win. Good luck with that. Kansas City gets by on the play-calling of Andy Reid and the play execution of quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

The last game before the Super Bowl sees Green Bay – who kept on playing just enough to get by Seattle – visiting the crazy, balanced and versatile San Francisco – led by the play calling of Kyle Shanahan. There is something crazy about San Francisco this year. San Francisco has won ugly like the 9-0 win over Washington in Week 7. The team has won in blowout fashion like its Sunday Night Football game against Green Bay in Week 12. Of its three losses, two were by three points and its other loss was by seven points. What this translates to is that even when San Francisco is losing it is still so close to winning and they are never out of any football game they are in. Which comes down to not only the players but coaching too. Shanahan has the ability to flex through the game and create reprisals that mystify a defense. This game is San Francisco’s to lose.

I am going to throw in a diary entry about the new year:

Dear Diary

Now that we are two weeks into the next roaring-twenties I find myself looking back 100-years ago and I think of the first roaring-twenties (that being those 1920’s). It was set in New York during a very wealthy time in America. The Great Gatsby is a novel that is written about this time. The moment was captured by F. Scott Fitzgerald in such a way that you can feel the environment all around you as you read the tome. It is scholarly for it captures the excess and grandiose nature of all things overbought and enjoyed. Ill-gotten wealth (did you buy bitcoin at $12 per bitcoin?) and excess immorality. I could go on but I want to make the point that the 1920s roared until the stock market crash of 1929.

The stock market closed at an all time high of 29,297.64 on Thursday, Jan. 16, 2020. Believe it or not this is the other side of an article that I wrote in Week 13 of 2008. There was much gnashing of teeth as the Dow dropped from 15K to 8K.

Excerpt from “Diary of a Fantasy Virgin” Week 13, Dec. 1, 2008. Highlighted areas are for dramatic effect.

Every now and then the stock market retracts and to be sure, this current retraction from Dow 15K to Dow 8K has been painful. However, if you have never invested before, now is the most wonderful time to acclimate yourself to the benefits of wealth creation through the stock market. Dow 8K has not been at this price since 1998 … or a few weeks back depending upon your perspective.

All negativity aside, you may not be aware but we live in the greatest economic capitalism experiment in humankind. The United States of America has created prosperity for many more citizens than any other country in the world and many more are to come. I am not an economist even though I did score the second-highest score on the final exam in my economics class. This does not even qualify me to say much of anything but I am allowed to be aware and pass on the awareness to my readers.

We are on the brink of economic disaster every day according to reports about our recent economic past and our near term present. But this so too shall pass. The structures that our economy are built on are solid and in five or 10 years or so, this time will be noted as a wonderful investment opportunity for your children and grandchildren.

So become informed by reading about investing and if you get the nerve you can start out by purchasing an index fund ETF like SPY which tracks the S&P 500.

I shall speak of it no more but I may mention something when the Dow hits 15K again. And it most certainly will.

Note: The return on the SPY from my article date on Dec. 1, 2008 to Jan. 16, 2020 has been ~270 percent and if you reinvested your dividends it is ~357 percent!!!! Not too shabby! This is the other side of the emotions of that time.

Never give up the faith.

Master D.

Tim Davoll can now be reached at tdavoll@fantasysharks.com and welcomes your opinions on the “Diary of a Fantasy Virgin” articles.

About Tim Davoll

Author of the Weekly Series "Diary of a Fantasy Virgin" since opening day of FantasySharks.com. That particular date? It was September 12, 2002 when my first article was published on this site. It has been a great ride ever since.