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Divisional Round: Studs and Duds of 2008

 Happy New Year’s and welcome to the first 2009 edition of the

Brew Crew Corner and the second week of the NFL playoffs. In this edition we will look at the final results of fantasy players that finished in the Top 10 as well as those players who fell of the map.

We will start by first looking at this weekends matchups. The theme this week will be rematches as all four games will be played by teams who faced each other during the regular season. They say defense wins championships and the teams in the playoffs have followed that model. Of the teams that made the playoffs this season, six of the Top 7 defenses made it with the exception of the Washington Redskins. There are still five of the Top 7 remaining in the playoffs.

Pittsburgh ranks first,

Baltimore ranks second,

Philadelphia ranks third,

New York ranks fifth and

Tennessee ranks seventh.

San Diego is the worse defensive team ranked 25th while

Carolina is ranked 18th followed by

Arizona ranked 19th.

Baltimore

Ravens at

Tennessee Titans

– Saturday, 4:30pm. The Ravens are playing well right now and many have them winning at

Tennessee. This game will come down to which defense makes the most plays. In the first meeting,

Tennessee edged

Baltimore 13-10 on a fourth-quarter drive that resulted in the game-winning TD. The key stat for that game was the combined 21 penalties by both teams. One of the penalties was a pass interference call that kept the winning drive alive. Stat wise, there wasn’t much to look at. For

Tennessee, Kerry Collins threw for just 163 PaYDs and one TD while throwing two INTs. Chris Johnson and LenDale White combined for just 48 RuYDs on 21 carries. For

Baltimore, it was almost the same as Joe Flacco threw for 153 PaYDs with two INTs. Le’Ron McClain had 11 carries for 51 RuYDs and one TD while Willis McGahee averaged 2.9 YPC on 22 carries for 64 RuYDs. This will be another low-scoring game.

The Titans finished the year allowing 199.8 PaYDs (ninth) and 12 PaTDs (second) with 20 INTs. On the ground, they allowed 93.9 RuYDs (sixth) and 12 RuTDs (11th). The Ravens gave up just 179.7 PaYDs (second) and 17 PaTDs (seventh) with 26 INTs. On the ground, the Ravens allowed 81.4 RuYDs (third) and yielded only four RuTDs (first).

My Pick:

Baltimore

wins, 17-13

Arizona

Cardinals at the

Carolina Panthers

– Saturday, 8:15pm.

Arizona has not won on the east coast as they are 0-5 when traveling there. That can be an advantage for the Panthers who came back from a 14-point deficit to beat

Arizona this season. In that game

Carolina scored 21 points in the fourth quarter. Jake Delhomme threw for 248 PaYDs and two TDs, both to Steve Smith who had 117 ReYDs on the day. The Panthers had a balanced attack as DeAngelo Williams had 17 carries for 108 RuYDs and a TD. Jonathan Stewart was a non-factor in that game. For

Arizona, Kurt Warner had 381 PaYDs with two TDs and one INT. Larry Fitzgerald had 115 ReYDs. On the ground, Edgerrin James was a non-factor, rushing seven times for just 17 RuYDs while Tim Hightower had six carries for three RuYDs and a TD.

Defensively, they are evenly-matched as

Carolina this season gave up 211.7 PaYDs (16th) and 19 PaTDs (10th) with 12 INTs. Their run defense has allowed 119.5 RuYDs (20th) and 14 TDs (15th). The Cardinals pass defense has allowed 221.2 PaYDs (22nd) while giving up 36 PaTDs (32nd) and grabbing 13 INTs. Their run defense has allowed 110.2 PaYDs (16th) and 13 RuTDs (13th).

My Pick:

Carolina wins, 28-21

Philadelphia

Eagles at the

New York Giants

– Sunday, 1:00pm. These teams meet for the third time this season with each team winning on the road. The last time these teams met in the Divisional Playoffs was in 2001 where the Giants won 20-10. The first meeting this season was dominated by the Giants with the Eagles making a late-game comeback that was stopped when Brian Westbrook could not convert on a short-yardage play. In that game, Eli Manning threw for 191 PaYDs with two TDs and one INT. Brandon Jacobs lead the way with 22 carries for 126 RuYDs and two TDs. Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw chipped in with 22 carries as well for 91 combined RuYDs. For the Eagles, Donovan McNabb threw for 194 PaYDs with three TDs and one INT. Westbrook struggled all day with just 26 RuYDs on 13 carries. The second meeting between these teams was a reversal of the first game with the Eagles dominating the game and the Giants almost rallying late for the win. The key to that game was the Eagles’ third-down conversions which they were 12-of-18. Domenik Hixon dropped a potential 85-yard TD pass that would have been the difference in the game as

Philadelphia held on 20-14. For the Eagles, McNabb threw for 191 PaYDs and a TD. Westbrook rebounded with 33 carries for 131 RuYDs and a TD. For the Giants, Manning threw for 123 PaYDs and one TD. The Giants run game was halted as Jacobs left the game with an injury having rushed for just 52 RuYDs on 10 carries. Ward and Bradshaw were ineffective rushing for 48 RuYDs on 13 combined carries.

The Giants have been solid on defense having given up 196.2 PaYDs (eighth) with 17 PaTDs allowed (7th) and 17 INTs. The rush defense allowed just 95.8 RuYDs (ninth) and 14 RuTDs (15th). The Eagles have also played well defensively, allowing 182.1 PaYDs (third) and 19 PaTDs (10th) and 15 INTs. On the ground they allow just 92.2 RuYDs (fourth) with seven RuTDs given up (second).

My Pick:

New York wins, 24-17

San Diego

Chargers at the

Pittsburgh Steelers

– Sunday, 4:45pm. The Chargers have gone on a winning streak to rise from the ashes of 4-8 to win five in a row.

San Diego is on a hot streak having knocked off the Colts at home to win their fifth straight game. In their first meeting, the Steelers edged the Chargers 11-10 for the first time in NFL history for a game to end in that score. That game was a defensive struggle. For

Pittsburgh, Ben Roethlisberger threw for 308 PaYDs. Willie Parker ran 25 times for 115 RuYDs. For the Chargers, Philip Rivers threw for 164 PaYDs and two INTs. This was the only game other than against the Falcons that Rivers did not have a passing TD. Ladainian Tomlinson ran 18 times for 57 RuYDs and one TD. Darren Sproles, the hero of last week’s game was a non-factor in the run game with just one carry for -1 RuYDs. Don’t expect LT to play in this game with his groin injury and the Steelers’ tough run defense will be too much for Sproles to be able to run between the tackles. If the Chargers have a chance at winning, it will be through the air.

The Steelers pass defense is the best in the league as they allowed just 156.9 PaYDs (first) and 12 PaTDs (second) with 20 INTs. On the ground, they allowed only 80.2 RuYDs (second) and just seven RuTDs (second). For the Chargers, they allowed 247.4 PaYDs (31st) with 25 PaTDs given up (27th) and 15 INTs. Their run defense has allowed 102.6 RuYDs (11th) and 11 RuTDs (eigth). The defense has been playing better lately under new defensive coordinator Ron Rivera.

My Pick:

Pittsburgh wins, 27-20

 

 

 

Top 5 Waiver Wire Players

 

Overall

Player

 

FPTS

% Change from ADP

10

Steve Slaton HOU RB

 

312

+129

16

Kurt Warner ARI QB

 

299

+111

35

Antonio Bryant TBB WR

242

+177

40

Tyler Thigpen KCC QB

 

236

+256

41

Chad

Pennington MIA QB

 

235

+165

 

The next list consists of the Top Busts of 2008 by position. There are many different factors that determine a bust: team play, key injuries or lack of performance can influence a players’ production.

 

 

 

Top 5 Busts of 2008 by position

 

Overall

Player

 

FPTS

% Change from ADP

 

QBs

 

 

 

535

Tom Brady NEP QB

 

3

-520

437

Vince Young TEN QB

 

13

-313

323

Carson

Palmer CIN QB

 

42

-295

433

Matt Leinart ARI QB

 

13

-282

225

Derek Anderson CLE QB

101

-175

 

 

RBs

 

 

 

434

Laurence Maroney NEP RB

 

13

-399

452

Rashard Mendenhall PIT RB

 

11

-361

319

Selvin Young DEN RB

 

44

-263

307

Felix Jones DAL RB

 

48

-206

293

Rudi Johnson DET RB

58

-203

 

 

WRs

 

 

 

375

Joey Galloway TBB WR

 

24

-290

251

Roy Williams DAL WR

 

85

-203

226

Plaxico Burress NYG WR

 

100

-195

187

Chad

Johnson CIN WR

124

-157

217

Chris Chambers SDC WR

 

105

-146

 

 

TEs

 

 

 

227

Kellen Winslow CLE TE

 

100

-178

267

Vernon

Davis

SFO TE

 

72

-168

235

Jeremy Shockey NOS TE

 

93

-162

300

Ben Watson NEP TE

 

51

-153

208

Heath Miller PIT TE

112

-103

 

 

PKs

 

 

 

546

Mike Nugent NYJ PK

 

2

-271

495

Lawrence Tynes NYG PK

 

6

-227

224

Shayne Graham CIN PK

 

101

-60

185

Adam Vinatieri IND PK

128

-52

171

Nick Folk DAL PK

135

-49

 

 

DEFs

 

 

 

135

San Diego

Chargers DEF

 

155

-55

144

New England

Patriots DEF

 

148

-50

172

Jacksonville

Jaguars DEF

135

-49

167

Seattle

Seahawks DEF

136

-42

77

Minnesota

Vikings DEF

 

195

+2

 

It is not enough to just list the big bust of the season but also to recognize the players that were drafted in the Top 10 but finished outside of those rankings. To some, these are the players that are viewed the most as Studs or Duds.

 

 

 

2008 Players Drafted in Top 10

 

But Didn’t Finish in Top 10 by Position

Drafted

Player

Overall by Pos

FPTS

% Change from ADP

 

QBs

 

 

 

1

Tom Brady NEP QB

60

3

-59

3

Tony Romo DAL QB

12

234

-9

5

Carson

Palmer CIN QB

41

42

-36

6

Ben Roethlisberger PIT QB

17

213

-11

7

Derek Anderson CLE QB

32

101

-25

9

Matt Hasselbeck SEA QB

36

68

-27

 

 

 

 

 

 

RBs

 

 

 

4

Joseph Addai

IND RB

37

162

-33

5

Steven Jackson STL RB

13

266

-8

6

Marion Barber DAL RB

12

267

-6

7

Frank Gore SFO RB

15

262

-8

9

Marshawn Lynch BUF RB

14

265

-5

10

Larry Johnson KCC RB

34

166

-24

 

 

 

 

 

 

WRs

 

 

 

1

Randy Moss NEP WR

11

228

-10

2

Terrell Owens DAL WR

12

227

-10

3

Reggie Wayne

IND WR

13

226

-10

4

Braylon Edwards CLE WR

33

157

-29

7

Marques Colston NOS WR

36

149

-29

8

T.J. Houshmandzadeh CIN WR

21

199

-13

9

Plaxico Burress NYG WR

62

100

-53

 

 

 

 

 

 

TEs

 

 

 

3

Kellen Winslow CLE TE

18

100

-15

7

Jeremy Shockey NOS TE

20

93

-13

8

Todd Heap BAL TE

24

86

-16

9

Vernon

Davis

   SFO TE

28

72

-19

10

Heath Miller PIT TE

15

112

-5

 

 

 

KRs

 

 

 

1

Folk,

Nick DAL PK

21

135

-20

3

Vinatieri,

Adam IND PK

27

128

-24

4

Kaeding,

Nate SDC PK

16

146

-12

5

Crosby,

Mason GBP PK

12

156

-7

7

Graham,

Shayne CIN PK

30

102

-23

9

Gould,

Robbie CHI PK

14

147

-5

10

Dawson,

Phil CLE PK

20

139

-10

 

 

 

 

 

 

DEFs

 

 

 

1

San Diego

Chargers SDC Def

18

155

-17

3

New England

Patriots NEP Def

19

148

-16

5

Dallas

Cowboys DAL Def

12

181

-7

7

Jacksonville

Jaguars JAC Def

28

135

-21

8

Seattle

Seahawks

SEA

Def

26

138

-18

10

Indianapolis

Colts

IND Def

14

175

-4

 

Now that you’ve seen the players drafted in the Top 10 and where they finished, let us look at the players that were drafted later that ended the season in the Top 10. These are the players we consider to be value picks.

 

 

 

2008 Players Not Drafted in Top 10

 

But Finish in Top 10 by Position

Drafted

17

Zach Miller OAK TE

10

133

+7

 

 

 

KRs

 

 

 

 

17

Calvin Johnson DET WR

3

278

+14

26

5

 

295

+9

37

Matt Cassel NEP QB

6

272

+31

13

David Garrard JAC QB

9

252

+4

38

Tyler Thigpen KCC QB

10

236

+28

 

 

 

RBs

 

 

 

TEs

 

 

 

11

Owen Daniels HOU TE

6

162

+5

26

John Carlson SEA TE

7

141

+19

30

Visanthe Shiancoe MIN TE

8

137

+22

15

Greg Olsen CHI TE

9

135

+6

17

Zach Miller OAK TE

10

133

+7

 

 

 

KRs

 

 

 

 

17

Calvin Johnson DET WR

3

278

+14

26

Roddy White

   ATL WR

4

262

+22

15

Anquan Boldin ARI WR

5

258

+10

19

Greg Jennings GBP WR

6

258

+13

14

Brandon Marshall DEN WR

7

257

+7

69

Antonio Bryant TBB WR

9

242

+60

12

Wes Welker NEP WR

10

242

+2

 

 

 

TEs

 

 

 

11

Owen Daniels HOU TE

6

162

+5

26

John Carlson SEA TE

7

141

+19

30

Visanthe Shiancoe MIN TE

8

137

+22

15

Greg Olsen CHI TE

9

135

+6

17

Zach Miller OAK TE

10

133

+7

 

 

 

KRs

 

 

 

13

David Akers PHI PK

2

175

+11

31

John Carney NYG PK

3

170

+28

21

John Kasay CAR PK

5

164

+16

14

Ryan Longwell MIN PK

6

164

+8

18

Jason Elam ATL PK

7

159

+11

28

Rian Lindell BUF PK

8

158

+20

16

Kris Brown HOU PK

10

156

+6

 

 

 

 

 

DEFs

 

 

 

14

Philadelphia

Eagles

   PHI Def

1

236

+13

12

Baltimore

Ravens BAL Def

2

235

+10

15

Tennessee

Titans TEN Def

4

214

+11

13

Tampa

Bay

Buccaneers TBB Def

5

201

+8

24

New York

Jets NYJ Def

6

199

+18

11

Green Bay

Packers GBP Def

8

191

+3

 

Thanks to all who took the time to read through this, and I hope for a better 2009 season for your players.

 

Cheers!

 

About Fantasy Sharks

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