“Norv Turner is going to turn
Ryan Mathews into the next LT!,” you proclaimed. You strutted up to your draft board, peeled that sticker, slightly turned your head as to make sure everyone was watching you as you made the pick of the draft in the first round. Then you plugged him into your lineup, week after week, waiting for the big payoff as you were beaten to a pulp. Not that I’m speaking from personal experience … but a guy I know …
If this sounds painfully familiar, there’s a good shot you’ve got the first pick in your draft this summer. Your draft is still probably a month away, but let’s face it:
Adrian Peterson is off the board. If you’re already basing your 2013 roster on having Peterson in your lineup and there’s no convincing you otherwise, you should probably stop reading this right now. But if you’re the type who likes to take risks, make moves, and have people “oohing and aahing” at the draft, then this might be the article for you.
Here are some reasons to not draft
Adrian Peterson with the No. 1 overall pick.
1. You’re a Minnesota Vikings fan.
Everybody knows that you can’t draft with your heart. If you’re a Vikings fan and you draft Peterson, you run the risk of damning your favorite team and your fantasy team with one move. Everyone knows that karma is a very real thing in fantasy football, and if Peterson were to go down with an injury, it would be because of something you did to upset the fantasy gods. Now your fantasy team is doomed, and what makes it worse, you’re wearing purple.
2. The workload.
Peterson had 197 rushing attempts in the second half of the season last year, plus another 22 in the playoffs. The Vikings are going to have to dial it back, at least a little, this season if they want to have any sort of future with their all-everything back.
3. The evolution of the passing game.
This one isn’t just on Mr. Samantha Steele, although another year in the league will definitely help him. The Vikings went out and got
Greg Jennings, who replaces
Percy Harvin as their No. 1 wide receiver. Jennings might not be as dynamic as Harvin, but he probably won’t be the headache Harvin was either.
Kyle Rudolph is also getting better and can put pressure on a defense.
4. Their division.
Somewhere, George Halas and Vince Lombardi are disgusted by what’s become of their beloved “Black & Blue Division.” The Detroit Lions look like they are holding a 7-on-7 passing camp every week. The Green Bay Packers are slinging it around like they’re the Steve Spurrier-led Florida Gators from the mid-1990’s. Even the Chicago Bears have decided to go more vertical with the hiring of Marc Trestman. There are going to be some shootouts in the NFC North this year, and the Vikings are going to need to play catch-up.
5. You’re in a Dynasty League.
Peterson’s 28 years old. He’s not old by any means, but if you’re looking to keep a guy for more than two years, you might have safer options. Keeping a running back for more than two years is a potential risk anyway, but guys like
Doug Martin and
Alfred Morris have yet to hit their 25th birthday.
6. Somebody makes you an offer you can’t refuse.
Here’s where having the first pick gets fun. Everyone just assumes you’re going to take Peterson. But you now have the ultimate bargaining chip. If someone wants Peterson bad enough, they will be willing to pay for him. Fantasy football is all about depth. If you can trade back in the first round and get another pick later in the draft, you can get another quality player who adds depth to your roster. Having Peterson is great, but I would definitely dangle your 2,000-yard carrot out there to see if there are any takers.