OK, the title should have gotten your attention. Clearly I don’t think you’re a dummy. I don’t even know you. And, you’ve gotten this far into the article so we’ve established that you can read on some level, or you are currently scrolling down to see if there are any pictures. Moving on …
Every expert or insider article I have gotten my hands on this year, as well as last, has preached to me at great length, the idea that drafting runningbacks too high is a risky proposition. In my 15 years of fantasy football I have always been a runningback guy. Year after year I have subscribed to the thought that obtaining stud runningbacks was paramount to your fantasy success. This formula always worked. I am starting to agree that those days are behind us, and runningback by committee is here to stay. With that in mind I will reiterate what you have probably read 20 times this preseason … after the first handful of workhorse stud runningbacks, there is a good amount of depth and a ton of guys who are an injury away from quality production. Again that is not the meat of this article, as you should have been force fed this information already. It does, however, set me up for my point so try to stay with me, dummy. Uh oh, I did it again, didn’t I? A thousand pardons.
Many experts last year advocated the importance of drafting stud wideouts. Some articles I read last year even instructed me that drafting a wide receiver with my first two picks would be a good idea. “Blasphemy,” I shouted. As previously stated I have always been a runningback guy, and I have a tendency to scream at my computer. But, that’s a whole other issue I don’t want to burden you with today, unless you have a minute. No, we should keep going. So, I stuck by my mantra last year and drafted runningbacks early and often and did well enough to win two of my six leagues. This year again wide receivers are touted as being the cogs, with which you should build your team around. While I still don’t believe this, I do think there has been a paradigm shift in regards to runningbacks. So, I examined some numbers.
WARNING: Statistical information and low-level nerdiness to follow. Proceed with caution!
These figures were culled from one of my leagues where the scoring is pretty standard with one clear exception, all touchdowns are worth five points including passing. It is also a 16-team league so it’s very deep (not for the faint of heart).
There are two important figures I want to convey here.
The first number, 146, refers to the difference in fantasy points between the best wide receiver and the worst one on a roster. This translates to 11 points per week, in a 13-week regular season, if you wait to draft the worst wide receiver in place of the best. This assumes you knew who the best wide receiver would be. Where was Miles Austin drafted in your 12-team league last year? Thought so, dummy. Oops. See above.
Now, subsequently, 284 refers to the difference between the best quarterback in points and the lowest point getter on a roster. This number translates to 22 points per week, a substantial difference. I also believe that the production of quarterbacks is significantly more easy to predict.
In short, I am tired of typing so you get the idea. I am not suggesting you go quarterback, quarterback but please don’t dismiss them as I believe you can’t get the same waiver wire value during the season that you can for wideouts. Oh, and good luck this year, dummy!