Monday - May 20, 2019

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FANTASY BUSTS: First Six Rounds

We have made it to the third and final installment of my “Fantasy Bust” series. I’m not going to lie, I’m a little blue about it (Like binge watching your favorite show and the last episode is about to start. Why does it have to end!?). I’m not in the habit of talking negatively about players, but you learn a lot when you dig deeper into the stats. The deeper you dive, the more successful you will be when draft day comes (or keeper selection time for your league rolls around). As we all know, all things must come to an end. On a happy note, each day that goes by means we are closing in on the start of the NFL season. So, yeah, there’s that. That’s why we are all here, right?

As I stated in my last article, I’m not going to go through rounds 7 – 9. Instead, I will be presenting you with some “bonus bust” prospects from the first 6 rounds (Just in case you missed it, you can read the first installment of this series here and the second here). Some of these selections may have you scratching your head: What is he thinking selecting “insert studly player here” as having bust potential? However, if you read past the name, some of the stats I present may shock you. You need to keep this in mind throughout the summer. Avoiding possible bust candidates will help you coast on to a championship this winter. You can have an ease of mind throughout the summer knowing you are avoiding said busts, which allows you to enjoy the beautiful summer even more than before. It’s all about increasing your quality of life, Sharks! With that being said, let’s dive back in.

Note: This is based off of a 12-team, standard league draft.

RB Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars (Average Draft Position: Round 2, Pick 7)

How in the world can a rookie be a bust!? He can if he doesn’t come out swinging, thus potentially tanking your team after having been drafted so high. T.J. Yeldon is sure to get a decent amount of 3rd down and passing down work. Chris Ivory was not released or traded, so he will get some early down work here and there (possibly goal line work, too). The scariest thing about all of this is that Jacksonville’s offensive line ranked 22nd in the NFL last year (per Pro Football Focus). That’s not so good. He will be the lead dog in the backfield. But with a below average offensive line and others to take work away, you may want to look elsewhere in the second round (for what it’s worth, Pro Football Focus has Jacksonville’s offensive line ranked 13th this offseason). Dez Bryant is going one pick after him…which is just ludicrous. There are just too many uncertainties surrounding Fournette and Jacksonville’s run game to invest such high draft capital into him come draft day. Take Dez Bryant instead and thank me after the season.

WR Brandin Cooks, New England Patriots (Average Draft Position: Round 3, Pick 3)

Currently being selected as the No. 11 overall receiver, you are paying a premium price for Cooks in the third round. Even more if you are looking at him as your WR1. Cooks posted WR2 numbers or better in only 7 out of 17 games last year while with New Orleans. Now he is in New England, which is clearly more crowded with playmakers. Cooks actually posted a drop rate of 3.4% of his targets, which landed him 65th at the wide receiver position. You can scream “blasphemy” all day while I say this, but he isn’t getting any sort of upgrade in quarterback (from Drew Brees to Tom Brady). You will be screaming profanities at your television even more so than last year due to his inconsistencies from game to game this year. It’s one of those “Cooks will be a better real life player than a fantasy player” situations this year in New England. Doug Baldwin is being selected right after Cooks. Do yourself a favor and select Baldwin instead. Many stressful times await this year if you take Cooks as your WR1.

About Ryan Black

Ryan is a fantasy football enthusiast who specializes in redraft and keeper leagues. He lives in Yorktown, VA with his beautiful wife, son, and daughter. Feel free to ask him any and everything regarding fantasy football on twitter. It's all about winning that fantasy football championship, Sharks!