Monday - Sep 28, 2020

Home / Commentary / BOLD PREDICTIONS: Week 11


Jared Goff and Patrick Mahomes will combine for 750 passing yards, eight touchdowns in their matchup this week.

My thinking: Two of the best offenses in the NFL will square off in primetime on Monday Night Football in Week 11. This heavyweight battle between Kansas City and the Los Angeles Rams is must-watch television for all football fans out there. You can safely bet your mortgage on an offensive explosion in this game. The over/under is currently at 64 for this game, which is one of the highest over/under numbers ever.

Jared Goff and Patrick Mahomes have been playing exceptionally well this season. Goff is averaging 357 passing yards per game in four home games, while Mahomes is averaging 323 passing yards per game in four road games. Both are top three among quarterbacks in fantasy points, and both have a wealth of offensive firepower surrounding them in their respective offenses. From Todd Gurley to Kareem Hunt. Tyreek Hill to Brandin Cooks. Travis Kelce to Robert Woods. The quality of players surrounding these two young quarterbacks has directly aided in the growth and development of each of them. Those players take so much pressure off the quarterback because they are so good at what they do.

On the defensive side of the ball, neither team has been playing all that well on defense lately. The Kansas City defense has allowed the most passing yards (3,107) to opposing quarterbacks this season, while the Rams defense ranks 25th in the NFL in passing yards allowed (978) in the last four weeks. In what could be a Super Bowl preview, expect Goff and Mahomes to air it out all over the field against two relatively weak defenses.

David Johnson will have 200 total yards and two touchdowns against the Raiders this week.

My thinking: David Johnson had his best game of the season last week against Kansas City, and will ride that hot streak into a highly favorable matchup against Oakland in Week 11. The Raiders defense has allowed a whopping 128 rushing yards per game this season, which ranks 31st in the NFL through ten weeks.  They allow an average of 28.4 PPR fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, which ranks 26th in the NFL.

In his first two games with Byron Leftwich as the offensive coordinator, Johnson has averaged 4.2 yards per carry on 37 rushing attempts. From Weeks 1 to 7 (with Mike McCoy calling the plays), he averaged 3.2 yards per carry on 106 attempts. If last week was any indication, fantasy owners should be optimistic about the fantasy outlook of Johnson for the rest of the season. Expect another big game from him against Oakland this week.

Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliott will combine for at least 15 receptions, 125 receiving yards this week.

My thinking: This prediction has everything to do with how terrible each of these players’ Week 11 opponents are at defending running backs out of the backfield. Todd Gurley, as I mentioned with Jared Goff, will go against a porous Kansas City defense this week that has allowed an average of 7.5 receptions (30th in the NFL) and 73.3 receiving yards (32nd in the NFL) per game to opposing running backs.

Ezekiel Elliott faces an Atlanta defense that is just as bad as Kansas City. The Falcons have allowed the most receptions (76) to opposing running backs this season and rank 30th in the NFL in receiving yards allowed per game (65) to opposing running backs. Each of these running backs have caught at least five passes in three games this year, but you should expect each of these premier running backs to have their most successful week of the season catching passes out of the backfield. Both Gurley and Elliott should have at least six-plus receptions, 60-plus receiving yards on the day. If you’re looking for high-end talent in your DFS lineup, look no further than these two stud running backs.

About Evan Reardon

An avid Boston sports fan, Evan has been a Patriots and NFL fan since the 1990's. Fantasy football runs in his family. He grew up in the 90's watching his father and uncles play in a 6-team, Touchdown-only league. He has been playing fantasy football since the early 2000's and has been writing fantasy sports content since 2014.