With a wild Week 4 in the books we are starting to get a a better understanding of what these teams are made of. Three weeks of data is enough to take a look at and use but we’ll need to be careful not give such a small sample size too much weight. I think if we look closely, we’ll find that there are some tasty match ups this week that are disguised as tough match ups. These situations should lead to lower ownership which is a critical differentiator that is the key to winning GPP’s. Before we get into all that, lets take a look back at how we fared in Week 3.
Patrick Mahomes QB, Kansas City Chiefs (DraftKings $7,000 FanDuel $8,900)
28.26 points – Well he didn’t sling 5 touchdowns but 3 will do just fine.
Jimmy Garoppolo QB, San Fransisco 49ers (DraftKings $6,500 FanDuel $7,400)
22.34 points – It was fun while it lasted but this is the last we’ve seen of Jimmy G for 2018. Not a bad outing all things considered.
Matthew Stafford QB, Detroit Lions (DraftKings $5,900 FanDuel $7,400)
18.48 points – I don’t think anyone expected the Lions to lead this whole game or win for that matter. Given the game script and the fact that Detroit actually had a 100-yard rusher, 18.48 points are pretty solid.
Ryan Fitzpatrick QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (DraftKings $6,000 FanDuel $7,500)
31.14 – This score should have an asterisk next to it. The Monday night shoot out was fun but it felt like each team started from the 50 each drive with all the penalties. They need to figure this stuff out…
Sony Michel RB, New England Patriots (DraftKings $4,000 FanDuel $5,600)
5.9 points – Well he got a fair share of snaps and led the team in carries with 14 but the negative game-script stunted Sony’s potential in this contest. Better days ahead with Rex Burkhead landing on the IR list.
James Conner RB, Pittsburgh Steelers (DraftKings $7,500 FanDuel $7,500)
14.50 points – He had little room to run early on but managed to string together a few nice runs late as the Steelers salted away the victory. Not the output we wanted for the price but not a back-breaker either.
Latavius Murray RB, Minnesota Vikings (DraftKings $5,800 FanDuel $5,200)
8.10 points – This one WAS a back-breaker. The game-script got all out of whack with the Bills jumping out to an early lead off of Vikings miscues. Bad luck all around but I’m guessing the Vikings were overlooking this match up as they prepared for their Thursday night tilt with the L.A. Rams.
Lamar Miller RB, Houston Texans (DraftKings $5,000 FanDuel $5,700)
15.10 points – He scored once and had two other scoring opportunities! This one was so close to being a monster outing but it just wasn’t meant to be. He’s got a huge game coming, mark my words.
Tevin Coleman RB, Atlanta Falcons (DraftKings $6,400 FanDuel $7,300)
12.70 points – He managed to salvage his day with a touchdown but otherwise it was a rough outing. We knew the match up wasn’t the most inviting but better than this was expected with so many points on the board.
Todd Gurley RB, Los Angeles Rams (DraftKings $9,200 FanDuel $9,300)
28.60 points – This is why you pay up for these guys.
Mike Evans WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (DraftKings $7,800 FanDuel $8,000)
28.70 points – And this is why you pay attention to those who are under-priced. Mike Evans was a steal at $7,800 in Week 3.
Julio Jones WR, Atlanta Falcons (DraftKings $7,900 FanDuel $8,700)
14.60 points – It was the Calvin Ridley show all afternoon but Julio got loose for a bomb late in the game that would have gone for 6 had Matt Ryan not under thrown him. Again, not the outcome we hoped for but not a back-breaker either.
T.Y. Hilton WR, Indianapolis Colts (DraftKings $6,700 FanDuel $7,500)
10 points – Disappointing outing but he again saw 10+ targets for the 3rd week in a row. With a target clip like this, keep running him out there and good things will happen.
Sammy Watkins WR, Kansas City Chiefs (DraftKings $5,100 FanDuel $6,200)
18.50 points – It may not have been a huge blow-up game for Watkins but he did outscore all other Chiefs wide receivers. 3.6x our investment is useful even if its not spectacular.
Golden Tate WR, Detroit Lions (DraftKings $6,800 FanDuel $6,800)
12.90 points – It was a bit of a let down here as the Lions surprised everyone Sunday night. He still paced all Lion’s wide receivers with 8 targets. Continue to chase the targets and good things will happen more often than not.
Pierre Garcon WR, San Fransisco 49ers (DraftKings $5,300 FanDuel $5,600)
2.10 points – I admitted this one was a shot in the dark and unfortunately it didn’t pan out. No other 49ers’ wideout had more targets than Garcon, it just wasn’t his day.
Evan Engram TE, New York Giants (DraftKings $4,300 FanDuel $5,800)
2.90 points – He left this contest early with a knee injury. Thankfully for his long term prospects it was a sprained MCL and not a tear. It stinks for his fantasy day in Week 3 but these things happen. We wish him a speedy recovery.
Vance McDonald TE, Pittsburgh Steelers (DraftKings $3,000 FanDuel $4,600)
24.20 points – It’s nice to get one of these bottom feeder tight end picks right. In Week 2 Jesse James had the big game but Vance had the monster week three performance. Most of his points came on a highlight reel 75 yard catch and run but that still counts. Its a crap shoot with those two tight ends in Pittsburgh but we guessed right this week.
Jimmy Graham TE, Green Bay Packers (DraftKings $4,900 FanDuel $6,200)
9.50 points – He’s the kind of guy who really needs a touchdown to boost his weekly value and the Packers just didn’t have that many red-zone opportunities.
Jared Cook TE, Oakland Raider (DraftKings $4,000 FanDuel $5,600)
8.10 points – He had a legit shot at an early touchdown on a shovel pass but fell just shy of the goal line and he had a 3rd quarter touchdown called back upon replay. Could have been a much bigger day with a little more luck. Even still, he’s been one of the more consistent options at an abysmal position this season.
On to Week 4!