Wednesday - Nov 20, 2019

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DFS GEMS: Week 4

Week 3 is in the books and were finally starting to see this season take shape a bit. We had some great picks last week (Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, Dalvin Cook, Marvin Jones, Austin Hooper to name a few) and some not so great picks (Sony Michel what was that?!). Something to keep in mind each week is that this article drops on Thursday morning before many of the final practice reports for the week come out. We knew Devin Singletary was at risk of missing time and sure enough he was ruled out as the weekend approached. I’ll always do my best to drop updates for guys to pivot to on Twitter so be sure to follow me @tradefantasy.

In the charts below, the team rankings versus each position will be referencing their ranking in average DraftKings points allowed throughout 2018 (32 being the easiest matchup, 1 being the toughest). Once we get to Week 4, we’ll shift to looking at how teams are performing this season since we’ll have a small sample size off which to go. All match up game data is current as of this writing. Always check the most current Vegas lines for the most accurate data.

As the largest prize pools are on the Sunday morning/afternoon main slate, that is where all of these picks will come from. 

Quarterbacks

QB Philip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers (DraftKings $6,200, FanDuel $7,800)

Team O/U (open) O/U (current) Implied Team Total vs. QB vs. RB vs. WR vs. TE
Lac -16 -16 30 6 24 5 14
mia 45 44 14 26 27 14 18

Miami has been getting absolutely smoked by opposing quarterbacks all season long so while I’d like to put a new name out here for Week 4, we’re running it back with Rivers. Miami is currently allowing an average of over 38 points per game to opposing passers, rock-bottom in the NFL. Rivers finished in the Top 10 last week and had six highly coveted Top-10 finishes to his name in 2018. Given the matchup and implied team total, he should waltz into the Top 10 this week as well.

QB Josh Allen, Buffalo (DraftKings $5,600, FanDuel $7,400)

Team O/U (open) O/U (current) Implied Team Total vs. QB vs. RB vs. WR vs. TE
NE -6 -7 24.75 19 13 12 17
Buf 44 42.5 17.75 1 25 4 1

Josh Allen has a favorable matchup at home against New England this week. Year-to-date, New England has given up the fewest fantasy points per game opposing passers but that feat includes games against Miami and the Sam Darnold-less New York Jets, not to mention an injured Ben Roethlisberger. New England is arguably the best in the game at setting up game plans and schemes so while I do think the Buffalo offense may have there moments of struggle, Allen’s rushing ability is the big wildcard that makes him a start for me in Week 4. Allen’s 105 rushing yards is second only to Lamar Jackson among quarterbacks in 2019 and he Allen has two rushing touchdowns to boot. This is a nice spend down spot with upside attached to it. The big red “1” next to his opponent ranking should help keep ownership nice and low too.

QB Deshaun Watson, Houston (DraftKings $6,400, FanDuel $8,200)

Team O/U (open) O/U (current) Implied Team Total vs. QB vs. RB vs. WR vs. TE
car 46 47 21.25 22 7 26 25
hou -4 -4.5 26.25 4 2 6 19

He’s one of the more expensive options in Week 4 but Watson looks like a solid start in this match up. Carolina is very beatable through the air, having yielded the 11th-most DK points per game to enemy passers. Carolina currently ranks in the bottom third of the league against opposing wideouts, which stacks up nicely with Watson’s various receiving weapons. With a struggling rushing attack and a 26-plus implied team point total, there’s a good chance most of those points come via the air but much like Josh Allen, Watson can get it done with his feet as well if need be.

QB Matt Ryan, Atlanta (DraftKings $5,900, FanDuel $7,900)

Team O/U (open) O/U (current) Implied Team Total vs. QB vs. RB vs. WR vs. TE
Ten 46.5 45.5 20.75 7 3 21 6
ATL -3.5 -4 24.75 32 29 28 12

This one goes against the grain a little bit in that the matchup isn’t the most enticing on the slate. What is enticing are Ryan’s three consecutive games with at least 23 DraftKings points. Only two of those big games occurred at home which is where Ryan plays his best football. The way to attack this Tennessee defense is through the wide receivers and Atlanta has two of the best in the business in Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, which makes up for any worry about the poor matchup against quarterbacks. Ryan has the fourth-most attempts of any quarterback in the league so while his efficiency has been the best, his volume is right up there at the top of the chart. He’s got a nice price this week and has a good chance to surprise in this contest in Atlanta.

About David Olivarez

David has been writing fantasy football content steadily since 2012 on the web and has been a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association since 2014. He focuses on Daily Fantasy Sports and Trade Analysis. Feel free to ask him questions on Twitter!