It’s chalk week… again. Taysom Hill, Adrian Peterson and Kalen Ballage are expected to have the highest ownership on the slate based on injuries and opportunity. The biggest question you will have to decide on is if you are going to go with the field on ownership or fade the chalk.
Kyler Murray and Josh Allen were the top two owned quarterbacks and they each put up about 30 fantasy points. Jared Goff was the 3rd highest owned quarterback but he put up just 14.48 DraftKings points. The top quarterback play was Tom Brady at 5% owned scoring 34.84 DraftKings points. The biggest bust was Drew Brees scoring 6.94 DraftKings points. The best value play was Matthew Stafford scoring 23.04 DraftKings points at $5,800.
Joe Burrow – Cincinnati Bengals (DK: $5,500/$324 DPP — FD: $7,700/$453 DPP)
Similar to my analysis of Daniel Jones last week, Burrow is too cheap this week on DraftKings. Burrow last week in a tough matchup scored just 12.52 points but he has 5 300+ yard games this season and 5 multiple touchdown games. He is the 14th most expensive quarterback on the slate below Tua Tagovailoa, Kirk Cousins, Cam Newton and Carson Wentz who have just 2 300+ yards passing games combined. Many will play Taysom Hill at $700 less on DraftKings but I will look to Burrow at lower ownership. The Washington Football Team are allowing 18.8 fantasy points to the position.
Phillip Walker – Carolina Panthers (DK: $4,800/$386 DPP — FD: $6,500/$531 DPP)
Teddy Bridgewater may miss this week and in that case, Walker would get the start. Walker has limited playing experience at the NFL level but in 5 XFL games he had 264 passing yards with 15 touchdowns and just 4 interceptions. Not exactly apples to apples but I think at his price he can be serviceable to help us jam all the top priced guys we want into our lineups. The Lions have been terrible this season both against the pass and the run. Walker averaged 19.8 rushing yards per game in his 5 XFL games. Again not the same as NFL but it shows he is mobile to pick up points on the ground which always helps to pad fantasy scoring. The Lions are giving up 20 fantasy points a game to the position.
Running back was ugly at the top. The top-3 owned players busted with very high ownership. Aaron Jones was owned at 44% and score just 14.5 DraftKings points. He wasn’t a complete dud but the high ownership is what hurt for the production. Mike Davis was 41% owned as he was mispriced at $4,000 on DraftKings but only managed 8.4 DraftKings points. Duke Johnson was the 3rd highest owned at 30% and score just 5.4 DraftKings points. The top play was Alvin Kamara scoring 34.8 DraftKings points and was just 13% owned. The best value play was D’Andre Swift at $5,100 scoring 25.9 DraftKings points.
Ezekiel Elliott – Dallas Cowboys (DK: $6,500/$406 DPP — FD: $8,000/$533 DPP)
In his first five games of the season Elliott was elite, scoring an average of 22.74 DraftKings points with a price tag that was over $8,000 on DraftKings. Over the last three games, he is averaging just 7.76 DraftKings points while his salary has dropped all the way to $6,500. I’m taking a chance on him this week to get back into the endzone and make value at his price. Though the Cowboys have been awful since Dak Prescott‘s injury, they have had some time to prepare for this game and should keep the score closer than the spread indicates at 8.5 points. The Vikings have won just four games this season and have one double-digit win back in Week 9 when they beat the Lions 34-20.
Adrian Peterson– Detroit Lions (DK: $4,000/$571 DPP — FD: $5,100/$850 DPP)
This kills me, as I was all-in on D’Andre Swift this week but he will miss this week with a concussion. Peterson and Kerryon Johnson will split the backfield touches and though I am not excited about this play, they face a bad Panthers defense and are cheap. Peterson has carried the ball 3 times more than Johnson (97 to 30) while they both have seen 10 targets this season; so the edge goes to Peterson. The Panthers are allowing the 4th most fantasy points to the position with 22.1 fantasy points per game.