We enter Week 7 with some shifting of the schedule as the Buccaneers at the Raiders has moved to 4:05pm and the Seahawks at Cardinals has moved to 8:20pm. Both these games will remain on the main slate for DraftKings but Fanduel will not have the Buccaneers and Raiders on their main slate.
The Seahawks and Cardinals game will be a very popular game as it features two of the best quarterbacks in fantasy in Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray. Expect high ownership on all the main receivers. The running backs in this game make for contrarian pivots. I don’t trust Kenyan Drake but his price tag at $4,800 will be tempting for those that will look at his 164 yards rushing and two touchdowns last week.
Ryan Fitzpatrick in his last start of the season was the highest owned quarterback at 15% in tournaments. He finished 13th among quarterbacks with 18.04 DraftKings points. The biggest bust was Aaron Rodgers who was 8% owned and scored just 5.8 DraftKings points. This is the lowest fantasy total for Rodgers in a non-injury game. The best value was Carson Wentz scoring 30.42 DraftKings points.
$DPP Value Plays
Joe Burrow– Cincinnati Bengals (DK: $5,500/$367 DPP — FD: $7,100/$473 DPP)
Burrow hasn’t played bad this season as he has 4 of 6 games with over 300 passing yards. His completion percentage has been good but he has been unlucky with touchdowns which is a variant stat. He only has six scores but could easily have twice that amount. The positive regression is coming where he will score multiple touchdowns with 300+ passing yards. This week he faces the Browns in a division and interstate rivalry game with a total of 50. Browns defense have allowed a ton of yards this season as they are ranked 28th in the league with 271.7 yards per game with 13 touchdowns allowed.
Derek Carr– Las Vegas Raiders (DK: $5,400/$386 DPP — FD: $6,900/$531 DPP)
Carr is kind of under-priced for his production lately. Over the past four games he has exceeded 20+ fantasy points in three of those games. In tough match-ups against the Bills and Chiefs he has performed well and is now in another game where the total is over 50 total points against the Buccaneers. The Buccaneers defense are middle of the pack on passing yards per game with 7 touchdowns allowed. Carr has been over 300 passing yards over the last two weeks with four straight games with multiple touchdowns thrown. People are going to overreact to how the Buccaneers played the Packers and Carr will be very lowly owned.
Four running backs led the position with 20%+ ownership. Myles Gaskin, Derrick Henry, David Montgomery and Alexander Mattison led the ownership with only Derrick Henry going off for 43.4 DraftKings. Mattison was the biggest bust of the group scoring 4 DraftKings points. The best value play was D’Andre Swift with 30.3 DraftKings points at $4,500.
Giovani Bernard– Cincinnati Bengals (DK: $4,500/$409 DPP — FD: $5,100/$729 DPP)
With Joe Mixon out this week, Bernard becomes one of the best values on the board. Last week Bernard rushed 8 times for 15 yards and a touchdown. However, in the two games that Mixon has missed, Bernard has averaged 22 fantasy points per game. The Browns have held running backs to 94 rushing yards per game but have allowed eight scores on the ground.
Jamaal Williams– Green Bay Packers (DK: $4,000/$400 DPP — FD: $4,800/$480 DPP)
This play hinges on the status of Aaron Jones though Jamaal Williams could still be viable based on how bad the Texans have been on defense. Jones is dealing with a calf strain in addition to tight end Robert Tonyan being questionable. The Texans are last in the league in rushing yards allowed with 177.5 yards per game. They are allowing the most fantasy points to the position with 28.6 per game. A.J. Dillon is in the split of the carries but I like Williams receiving upside as he can see a good number of targets in this game.