Football is back! It has been a crazy 2020 and with no preseason we have a lot of unknowns for Week 1. Especially when you look at players on new teams, we don’t know how they will fit into the new team’s offense. My approach for Week 1 is to go running back heavy and focus on mid-tier wide receivers outside of stacks.
Changes this season on DraftKings are the minimum price on running backs are $4,000 rather than $3,000 as they have been in the past. I think the pricing is tighter for a Week 1 slate.
$DPP Value Plays
Cam Newton– New England Patriots (DK: $6,100/$381 DPP — FD: $7,400/$463 DPP)
Lack of preseason will keep Newton’s ownership down. Right now, he is projected for less than 5% ownership in week one but he always has 30-point upside. I believe he’s healthy and I’m going to have a good amount of Newton this week. Not only do they play the Dolphins in week one who were 26th last season in pass defense, but both Newton and Bill Belichick will have something to prove. Newton will have a chip on his shoulder to prove he still can be among the top quarterbacks and Belichick will be looking to silence those that feel they will not win without Tom Brady. Belichick proved back in 2008 with Matt Cassel that he could win without Tom Brady so imagine what he can do with Newton? Look for Newton to rush for at least 40-50 yards and run one in.
Joe Burrow– Cincinnati Bengals (DK: $5,800/$446 DPP — FD: $6,600/$508 DPP)
Burrow will see his first NFL action Week 1. We don’t know what to expect from Burrow but the talent around him is good. A.J. Green should be healthy, and Joe Mixon is a good running back that will serve as a good option for Burrow to check down to. He’s showing just 2-4% ownership for Week 1. The Chargers played well against the past last season as they were ranked 5th in pass defense. Most people will fade this play because of the matchup and pivot to Jimmy Garoppolo at the same price but I will have a few shares at his low ownership.
$DPP Value Plays
Antonio Gibson– Washington Football Team (DK: $4,000/$500 DPP — FD: $4,600/$657 DPP)
The ownership on Gibson will be high, especially those that pay up for Christian McCaffrey. Washington have released Adrian Peterson which opens the door for Gibson to be the man. The Eagles were middle of the league in run defense last season giving up 13 rushing scores. There isn’t a ton of running back value this week which reflects on his projected ownership.
Chris Thompson– Jacksonville Jaguars (DK: $4,000/$400 DPP — FD: $4,900/$544 DPP)
The Jaguars have done a lot of purging of their roster. The team let go of starting running back Leonard Fournette, Devine Ozigbo has been placed on IR and Ryquell Armstead is dealing with COVID-19. The team is thin at the position having James Robinson and newly signed Dare Ogunbowale. I think Thompson outperforms Robinson as he will get the passing targets. The Colts were tough last year against the run giving up just 8 scores on the ground however, Thompson is good value with his receiving ability.