Wednesday - Jul 17, 2019

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DFS GEMS: Week 10

Well, Week 9 was a wild ride with some huge matchups really paying off from a fantasy perspective. The Los Angeles Rams/New Orleans game might have been the game of the year so far and while we have a couple of doozies on tap for Week 10, it will be unlikely that we see another 80-point game. We had our most success paying up for running back in Week 10 but the higher end wide receivers featured a few uncharacteristic letdowns. We’re going to keep on the same track this week and try to sprinkle in a few hand-picked tight ends once again, an area we excelled at last week.

On to Week 10!

Quarterbacks

Cam Newton QB, Carolina (DraftKings $6,100 FanDuel $8,700)
After last week’s abysmal Thursday night matchup it’s a breath of fresh air to see this tilt featuring Carolina at Pittsburgh to kick off Week 10. Both teams rate in the Bottom 12 in average points allowed to opposing passers so this game should easily hit the 51.5-point over/under. Cam Newton will likely have one of the week’s highest ownership but I’m still going to play him over Roethlisberger in this contest. He has a better price ($200 lower DK) and his receivers have a much better matchup on paper against this Pittsburgh secondary which is allowing the sixth-most points per game to opposing wideouts. Newton has been playing lights out and should continue to do so this week at Pittsburgh, even if he does so with his legs. Newton leads all quarterbacks with 342 rushing yards and four touchdowns on foot this season.

Ryan Fitzpatrick QB, Tampa Bay (DraftKings $5,900 FanDuel $7,600)
The Fitzmagic is back! For one more week anyway. He’s averaging nearly 23 points per game since his return halfway through the game in Week 8 and draws a nice matchup against Washington’s Bottom 10 pass defense this week. Tampa Bay is slight favorites at home with an implied team point total just shy of 28. A high-flying quarterback as a home favorite against a Bottom 10 defensive matchup for less than a $5,000 is a no-brainer for me in Week 10. As further icing on the cake, Fitzpatrick is Top 6 in passer rating this season ahead of the likes of Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck and Kirk Cousins. Efficiency is important to pay attention to when it comes to daily fantasy sports (DFS) and Fitzpatrick has been one of the league’s best this season.

Philip Rivers QB, Los Angeles Chargers (DraftKings $6,000 FanDuel $8,200)
Speaking of efficiency, Philip Rivers is another nice option this week and solid price-pivot off of Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is likely to be highly owned in Week 10. Despite his lack of flair, Rivers has quietly been an excellent option this season and he currently owns the third-highest quarterback rating in the NFL behind only Drew Brees and Patrick Mahomes. That is a pretty good company to keep these days! Oakland has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing passers so rather try to predict the game script (Chargers are 10-point favorites) just start Rivers with confidence and stack him with Melvin Gordon to cover your bases. Oakland is imploding and is likely to simply lay down in this matchup.

Dak Prescott QB, Dallas (DraftKings $4,900 FanDuel $7,000)
Say what you will about Prescott and Dallas as a whole but Prescott is averaging nearly 23 points per game over his last three contests. He finally has a viable No. 1 receiver and draws a nice matchup this week against Philadelphia, who has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks and comes into this game as a 6.5-point favorite. There isn’t an eye-popping over/under in this contest (43 as of this writing) and there a roughly 11 new memes floating around right now about how awful Dallas is. The current perception should keep his ownership low despite the plus matchup. This might be the perfect time to sneak Prescott into a lineup and get nice return on investment.

Running Backs

Nick Chubb RB, Cleveland (DraftKings $5,500 FanDuel $6,700)
Since taking over the starting gig in Week 7, Chubb has had no less than 18 carries in any single contest. When it comes to the running back position you really want to be on the lookout for these low-priced options who get high volume and Chubb certainly fits the bill. His counterpart, Duke Johnson, had a huge game last week and has a lower price point in Week 10. I’d expect his ownership to be higher than Chubb’s and while both are viable options against the league’s third-most generous matchup for enemy backs I’m leaning towards Chubb for his track record of volume.

Alvin Kamara RB, New Orleans (DraftKings $8,700 FanDuel $8,800)
At this point in the season Kamara is entrenched in that “Todd Gurley” must start territory so I won’t spend too much time trying to sell you on starting him. Cincinnati is allowing the fifth-most points per game to opposing backs. New Orleans enters this contest with a 29-point expected total and Kamara is absolutely on fire. There is a chance the game gets out of hand and Mark Ingram gets some extra work so don’t be afraid to throw him into a few guaranteed prize pools (GPP’s) as well at $4,500 (DK).

Aaron Jones RB, Green Bay (DraftKings $5,000 FanDuel $6,500)
The most important trade of the year may prove to be the dumping of Ty Montgomery by Green Bay. One less mouth to feed in the backfield should only prove more and more useful for Aaron Jones as the season wears on and it certainly helped his cause in Week 9. Jones out-touched Jamaal Williams 16-9 against New England last week ad should only build on his usage against a much less threatening opponent in Week 10 when Miami comes to town. Miami has allowed the seventh-most points per game to opposing running backs and have allowed an average of 142 yards per game to enemy backs over its last four contests. This should be the game when Jones finally gets turned loose. Green Bay should get up big and have this game well in hand by halftime.

Kareem Hunt RB, Kansas City (DraftKings $8,500 FanDuel $9,000)
Hunt’s price is starting to creep up to where it needs to be but he’s still outside the Top-4 in DraftKings pricing among running backs. Enjoy the slight discount while you still can but make no mistake, Hunt belongs in the elite conversation at running back. He makes this list almost every week but once again Kansas City draws a great matchup against the league’s second-most generous defense for opposing backs. Kansas City is favored by 16.5 points with a whopping 33-point expected point total in this contest. With the second-most carries in the league, Hunt has one of the safest floors in the NFL yet his ceiling is sky high. As a key cog in one of the best offenses in the league, start with confidence yet again in Week 10.

Melvin Gordon RB, Los Angeles Chargers (DraftKings $9,000 FanDuel $8,900)
You’ve got to love Gordon this week against Oakland, who ranks Bottom 10 in average points allowed to opposing running backs. Oakland looked hopeless against San Francisco last Thursday and has been beaten by enemy running backs for 546 total yards and four touchdowns over its past four contests. Gordon had a nice game last week in his return from his hamstring injury, putting 123 total yards and a score on the board. The Chargers are 10-point favorites expected to score 30 points in this contest, and I’d expect Gordon to build on that success in a matchup that should allow for ample running back usage.

Saquon Barkley RB, New York Giants (DraftKings $8,600 FanDuel $8,600)
Barkley has been one of the few bright spots for this pathetic Giants team this season. The rookie rusher has compiled more than 1,000 total yards and seven scores through nine weeks. It’s good to see his talents aren’t being wasted despite the sketchy offensive line and anemic overall offense. This week he’ll face Bottom 12 run defense presented by San Fransisco in a game that should be a decent contest given the two teams involved. You have to think both teams think they each have a legitimate shot at winning this game so expect both squads to play up a bit and run their studs ragged. That’s good news for Barkley, who is tied for 10th in rush attempts and trails only Alvin Kamara in receptions among running backs league-wide.

About David Olivarez

David has been writing fantasy football content steadily since 2012 on the web and has been a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association since 2014. He focuses on Daily Fantasy Sports and Trade Analysis. Feel free to ask him questions on Twitter!