Thursday - Jan 28, 2021
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DFS GEMS: Week 11

Well, it’s official. For daily fantasy sports (DFS) purposes we are officially at the halfway point of our season. As DFS players we have the added benefit of playing an extended fantasy season. For those who mainly adhere to season-long fantasy football their season is a mere 13-16 weeks depending on whether or not they make the playoffs. For some, the season is already over so they might as well try their hand at daily fantasy sports to pass the time as they wait for next year. The wonderful thing about this time of year is the gradual influx we are about to see of less-seasoned DFS players jumping into the pool for this very reason. It’s critical to take advantage of this influx and make sure you have some skin in the game across multiple slates. If you’re in a hole, now’s the time to make up ground. If you’re up, now’s the time to max out your annual profit. Always play smart and within your means but at the same time make sure you aren’t missing any opportunities. New fish in the pond is as good as opportunities get.

As a reminder the rankings below indicate the corresponding team’s ranking in average DraftKings points allowed per game (YTD). The higher the number, the better the matchup. All info that applies to the recommended player will be displayed in bold.

I play on DraftKings exclusively so most of my takes will be slanted towards their scoring and pricing. The weekly Millionaire Maker contest is also focused on the Sunday daytime slate. For takes and advice regarding primetime and London games hit me on Twitter @DavidO_DFS

Quarterbacks

QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore (DraftKings $7,700, FanDuel $8,800)

Team O/U (open) O/U (current) Implied Team Total vs. QB vs. RB vs. WR vs. TE
hou 49 50 23 27 1 30 9
bal -5 -4 27 9 9 20 8

Jackson’s Week 10 performance was his fourth 30-plus point game of the season and his ninth finish with more than 20 points. He’s the most expensive passer on the main slate and for good reason. He’s the Christian McCaffrey ($10,500 DK) of his position, almost ensuring a high point total each week. Unlike McCaffrey, the asking price isn’t $10k+ each week so think of it as getting a high volume RB1 for $7,700. His 702 rushing yards on the season would have him 11th in the league among running backs, ahead of Mark Ingram and Aaron Jones. This game could easily go off and Jackson is the centerpiece to it all. 

QB Tom Brady, New England (DraftKings $6,400, FanDuel $7,800)

Team O/U (open) O/U (current) Implied Team Total vs. QB vs. RB vs. WR vs. TE
ne -3 -3.5 24 1 1 1 3
phi 46 44.5 20.5 18 7 25 10

So Brady hasn’t been throwing it deep much averaging only 7.1 yards per completion (18th in the league) but his 355 pass attempts on the season are third in the league behind only Philip Rivers and Kyler Murray. Philadelphia is a competent opponent and the matchup against this secondary is very good for his wide receivers. He looks like a solid bet for the price this week. 

QB Deshaun Watson, Houston (DraftKings $6,800, FanDuel $8,200)

Team O/U (open) O/U (current) Implied Team Total vs. QB vs. RB vs. WR vs. TE
hou 49 50 23 27 1 30 9
bal -5 -4 27 9 9 20 8

I’ll say it, I think we’ve got a shootout in store this weekend. Both teams are loaded and Watson should get Will Fuller back this week. More than anything, I like the wide receiver matchup in this game and have faith in Watson, who hasn’t put up a dud since Week 4. This game should absolutely play a big roll in the winning lineup in guaranteed prize pools (GPP’s) this week and going with the running quarterbacks on both sides gives you a lot of ways to get this game covered. Both are pricey but it should pay off. 

QB Kyle Allen, Carolina (DraftKings $5,300, FanDuel $7,200)

Team O/U (open) O/U (current) Implied Team Total vs. QB vs. RB vs. WR vs. TE
atl 54 49.5 22 29 11 27 17
car -7 -5.5 27.5 12 29 24 5

This is my spend-down option this week and honestly, I don’t see any price pivots that I love. His weapons all have good matchups, as does he. With Cam Newton looking like he’s on the outs, Allen knows all eyes will be on his end of season audition. Hosting very beatable Atlanta should be the perfect spot to showcase his talents. 

About David Olivarez

David has been writing fantasy football content steadily since 2012 on the web and has been a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association since 2014. He focuses on Daily Fantasy Sports and Trade Analysis. Feel free to ask him questions on Twitter!