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DFS GEMS: Week 13

Thanksgiving is upon us! This has to be easily my favorite holiday as it brings all of my favorite things together: family, friends, food and of course football! This turkey day, a three-game slate should be a lot of fun to play on Thursday but make a note, there will be zero recommendations from Chicago, Detroit, Buffalo, Dallas, New Orleans and Atlanta in this article. We focus on the main slate around here since the goal is to take down a large field tournament and that is where the big enchilada (Millionaire Maker) resides! Make sure you get some skin in the game for the Thursday slate but more importantly, be sure to spend as much time as you can with family and friends. To that end, we’ll try to keep things short and sweet this week so we can all focus on the things that matter most.

As a reminder, the rankings below indicate the corresponding team’s ranking in average DraftKings points allowed per game (YTD). The higher the number, the better the matchup. All info that applies to the recommended player will be displayed in bold.

I play on DraftKings exclusively so most of my takes will be slanted towards their scoring and pricing. The weekly Millionaire Maker contest is also focused on the Sunday daytime slate. For takes and advice regarding primetime and Thanksgiving games, hit me on Twitter @DavidO_DFS

Quarterbacks

QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay (DraftKings $6,500, FanDuel $8,100)

Team O/U (open) O/U (current) Implied Team Total vs. QB vs. RB vs. WR vs. TE
gb -7.5 -6.5 26 9 30 9 29
nyg 47 45.5 19.5 24 16 31 3

Coming off a Week 12 shellacking at the hands of surprising San Francisco, I’m expecting Rodgers to have a nice bounce back on the road at the New York Giants. It’s a strong matchup for everyone on his offense aside from the tight end position and Rodgers remains a Top 10 passer in terms of completion percentage at this point in the season. We know Rodgers has those 30-plus point explosions in his game and this could be one of them coming off of three straight dud performances. 

QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City (DraftKings $7,400, FanDuel $8,600)

Team O/U (open) O/U (current) Implied Team Total vs. QB vs. RB vs. WR vs. TE
oak 54.5 51.5 20.75 28 20 23 27
kc -8.5 -10 30.75 23 32 12 9

Is it cheating to put Mahomes on this list? I mean he’s good and all but no one is automatic and Mahomes is no exception. Yes, he’s the most expensive quarterback on the slate but last time these teams met Mahomes hung 35.6 points in Oakland. This time, Kansas City is hosting and its ever-generous defense. All signs point to smash-spot for the second most exciting quarterback in the NFL.

QB Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams (DraftKings $6,000, FanDuel $7,900)

Team O/U (open) O/U (current) Implied Team Total vs. QB vs. RB vs. WR vs. TE
lar -3.5 -3 25.25 16 14 15 12
az 47 47.5 22.25 32 22 26 32

What? This guy? Really? Yeah, really. Goff has looked very bad of late but a date with bottom feeder Arizona could be just what the doctor ordered to get Goff back on track. We know what this offense can do when it’s clicking and while Goff has been far from efficient, he is at least Top 4 in pass attempts on the season with 410. Ideally, we want to go with efficiency over volume at the quarterback position but for this offense, I’ll make an exception. Coming off of three straight six-point outings, his ownership should be at an all-time low. If we connect on this pick knowing what this offense is capable of, we may have a key differentiator in your tournament lineups this week. 

QB Carson Wentz, Philadelphia (DraftKings $5,800, FanDuel $7,300)

Team O/U (open) O/U (current) Implied Team Total vs. QB vs. RB vs. WR vs. TE
phi -7.5 -9.5 27.25 12 9 24 7
mia 46.5 45 17.75 30 28 25 17

Usually, I like to spend way less at the quarterback position but I’m really having a hard time finding that low-priced upside option this week. Wentz is about as low as I can go this week and still feel good about it. It looks as though he’ll have his primary wideout weapons intact this week with the return of Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor and the entire offense has a plus matchup on the road against hapless Miami. There are lower-priced options who could pan out but none have a matchup as juicy as this. If Baker Mayfield can carve up this defense as he did a week ago, there’s reason to believe Wentz will fare quite well in Week 13.

About David Olivarez

David has been writing fantasy football content steadily since 2012 on the web and has been a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association since 2014. He focuses on Daily Fantasy Sports and Trade Analysis. Feel free to ask him questions on Twitter!