Tuesday - Dec 10, 2019

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DFS GEMS: Week 2

With a wild Week 1 in the books its time to turn our focus to Week 2. Week 1 is always nuts, pricing is wide open and there always that tournament buster or two out there – not to mention the injuries! The goal is to try to identify as many top 10 plays as we can each week. In 2018, over 81% of all Millionaire maker winning lineups were top 10 players. If we can land enough players in the top 10, we’ll stand a pretty good chance of taking down a large GPP – easier said than done!

In the charts below, the team rankings vs each position will be referencing their ranking in average DraftKings points allowed throughout 2018. (32 being the easiest matchup, 1 being the toughest) Once we get to Week 4, we’ll shift to looking at how teams are performing this season since we’ll have a small sample size to go off of. All match up game data is current as of this writing. Always check the most current Vegas lines for the most accurate data.

As the largest prize pools are on the Sunday morning/ afternoon main slate, that is where all of these picks will come from. I’m more than happy to lend my thoughts on Thursday, Sunday and Monday night plays as well, just hit me up on Twitter – @tradefantasy

 

Quarterbacks

QB – Tom Brady, New England Patriots (DraftKings $6,400, FanDuel $7,800)

Team O/U (open) O/U (current) Implied Team Total vs QB vs RB vs WR vs TE
New England -14 -18.5 33 19 13 12 17
Miami 47 47.5 14.5 26 27 14 18

In two meetings vs The Dolphins in 2018, Tom Brady threw for a collective 632 yards and 6 touchdowns. He is priced slightly higher than I would like this week but after watching that Sunday night shellacking the Pats put on the Steelers its looks as though New England has the pedal to the metal and mow down Miami this week as well. The Dolphins suffered a vicious beating in week one at the hands of the Ravens after which rumors of players requesting to be traded sprang up left and right. They might be mailing it in already and Belichick has no mercy. All the measurables say this should be a smash spot so go ahead and spend up here if you can make it work.

 

QB – Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (DraftKings $5,800, FanDuel $7,600)

Team O/U (open) O/U (current) Implied Team Total vs QB vs RB vs WR vs TE
Seattle 46.5 46.5 21.5 12 21 17 8
Pittsburgh -4 -3.5 25 15 8 20 21

Pittsburgh is better than they showed on SNF, and we all know it. JuJu Smith-Schuster is banged up but anyone on that offense is a weapon. Coming off an embarrassing loss to New England, you can bet the Steelers will be fired up for their first home game of the season against a formidable Seahawks offense. The measurables regarding implied team total, RB matchup and WR matchup (two of Pittsburgh’s strong points) certainly add up to a potentially nice start for Big Ben in Week 2. Hopefully, people are still down on him from his Week 1 performance or lack thereof.

 

QB – Jared Goff, L.A. Rams (DraftKings $5,900, FanDuel $7,600)

Team O/U (open) O/U (current) Implied Team Total vs QB vs RB vs WR vs TE
New Orleans 53.5 53 25 31 4 32 5
L.A. Rams -3 -3 28 17 16 18 26

I’m expecting high ownership in what projects to be a shootout vs. New Orleans this week but sometimes that’s not a problem in GPP’s. In 2018, 42% of all weekly top 10 DraftKings Quarterbacks were home favorites and that’s exactly what Goff is this week! With the current implied team total and New Orleans 2018 ranking in average DK points allowed to QB and WR in mind, Goff looks like a no-brainer for me this week. This should be one heck of a contest so make sure you’ve got some skin in this game!

 

QB – Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals (DraftKings $5,400, FanDuel $7,100)

Team O/U (open) O/U (current) Implied Team Total vs QB vs RB vs WR vs TE
San Francisco -1.5 45 22 24 23 25 7
Cincinnati 45 -1 23 29 32 16 31

Andy Dalton finished as the QB10 in Week 1 in a game where the Bengals were projected to get blown out. He hung 25.72 points on a solid Seattle pass defense that ranked 12th vs QB’s in average DK points allowed a year ago and really surprised some people. This contest looks a bit less lopsided vs. a 49ers team that was rather sluggish last week. Neither defense is particularly good based on their average DK points allowed in 2018 so while the implied team total is less than inspiring, I think there is room for improvement on that figure. With Joe Mixon banged up (already?!) the Bengals will likely lean on Dalton in what projects to be a sneaky shootout in Cincinnati this Sunday.

About David Olivarez

David has been writing fantasy football content steadily since 2012 on the web and has been a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association since 2014. He focuses on Daily Fantasy Sports and Trade Analysis. Feel free to ask him questions on Twitter!