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DFS GEMS: Week 5

Wide Receivers

WR Michael Thomas, New Orleans (DraftKings $6,600, FanDuel $7,700)

Team O/U (open) O/U (current) Implied Team Total vs. QB vs. RB vs. WR vs. TE
tb 47 47 21.75 25 3 28 31
no -6.5 -3.5 25.25 31 5 27 16

It’s Michael Thomas for $6,600, what more needs to be said? Seriously though, he’s third in the league in targets with 42, and despite Teddy Bridgewater under center, he’s been quite useful. He has posted double-digit outings in each contest even with Bridgewater’s inability to throw the ball effectively beyond 10 yards. That intermediate range in a points per reception league format is just fine and his next closest competition for targets is Alvin Kamara with 24 on the year. In a matchup like this, getting Thomas at this price feels like stealing. If you want to scrape the bottom of the barrel deep threat, Ted Ginn would be the next wide receiver option at $3,700 but recognize the volume is not there with a mere 17 targets on the season. Don’t get cute, as Bridgewater can’t throw it that far effectively. 

WR Alshon Jeffery, Philadelphia (DraftKings $5,900, FanDuel $6,700)

Team O/U (open) O/U (current) Implied Team Total vs. QB vs. RB vs. WR vs. TE
nyj 44.5 44 15.25 17 25 30 1
phi -13 -13.5 28.75 28 6 32 25

Back in good health, Jeffery got back to his old ways, soaking up nine targets in Week 4. This week presents another nice match up for Philadelphia’s skill position players but what has me leaning towards the receivers more than the running backs is Philadelphia’s own struggles against the pass. 

WR Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay (DraftKings $6,900, FanDuel $7,800)

Team O/U (open) O/U (current) Implied Team Total vs. QB vs. RB vs. WR vs. TE
tb 47 47 21.75 25 3 28 31
no -6.5 -3.5 25.25 31 5 27 16

These Tampa Bay wideouts have been lights out this season and they draw another very nice match up in Week 5 at New Orleans. Mike Evans and Godwin appear to be trading weeks as far as who is going to “go off” goes so its anyone’s guess as to who will have the bigger week. Given the price difference and overall consistency this season, I’m leaning toward Godwin in this contest. New Orleans played solid defense against Dallas last week but this matchup lends room for fireworks from both teams. His price tag of $6,900 is a very solid price for last week’s overall WR1.

WR Will Fuller, Houston (DraftKings $4,500, FanDuel $5,700)

Team O/U (open) O/U (current) Implied Team Total vs. QB vs. RB vs. WR vs. TE
atl 49.5 48.5 21.75 23 8 19 11
hou -4.5 -5 26.75 15 24 26 3

A near miss from Deshaun Watson last week left much to be desired from Fuller’s final stat line but the targets are there (second on the team with 23 on the year) and he’s certainly getting the deep shots downfield. Fuller always gets loose for a monster game, it’s only a matter of time. Given the attention surrounding Watson’s Week 4 struggles, you can bet Houston has made getting these talented wide receivers going in Week 5 a priority. This could be the week Fuller blows up and in a matchup like this, you’ll want a piece of this passing attack. Fuller’s price has me leaning towards him over DeAndre Hopkins just in case the kinks haven’t quite been worked out yet. That $4,500 could return five-to-six times return on investment if things go the way they should in this contest.

WR Julio Jones, Atlanta (DraftKings $7,700, FanDuel $8,200)

Team O/U (open) O/U (current) Implied Team Total vs. QB vs. RB vs. WR vs. TE
atl 49.5 48.5 21.75 23 8 19 11
hou -4.5 -5 26.75 15 24 26 3

If you couldn’t tell, I’m all-in on this Atlanta at Houston game. Both defenses are weak against the pass and both teams sure could use some positive momentum after looking horrible last week. Julio Jones skills aren’t up for debate, nor is his role as lead dog in this passing attack with a team-high 37 targets on the season (eighth in the league currently). Despite being five-point underdogs on the road, Atlanta still has a respectable implied point total in what projects to be a high-flying affair in Week 5. Jones for less than $8,000 makes a lot of sense to me.

WR D.J. Chark, Jacksonville (DraftKings $5,000, FanDuel $5,800)

Team O/U (open) O/U (current) Implied Team Total vs. QB vs. RB vs. WR vs. TE
jax 42 41 18.75 22 4 24 18
car -3 -3.5 22.25 7 14 9 4

This is my “gutty” wide receiver pick in Week 5. The contest isn’t a no-brainer match up for wide receivers or quarterbacks but we’ve seen teams have success against this Carolina defense via the air this season and Chark is Gardner Minshew’s preferred target at the moment. His statline would have been pretty nice in Week 4 if not a for a touchdown being called back; he’s playing better than the box score indicates. More than anything, this pick is the one that excites me the most in this $5,000 price range, and with the massive salaries we’ll need to pay up for some of our running backs, we’ve got to save somewhere. I don’t fault you if you choose to fade this pick but there’s a solid chance it pays off too.

Tight Ends

TE Darren Waller, Oakland (DraftKings $5,000 FanDuel $6,400)

Team O/U (open) O/U (current) Implied Team Total vs. QB vs. RB vs. WR vs. TE
chi -6 -4.5 22.5 4 9 14 15
oak 41 40.5 18 26 16 25 28

Darren Waller is tops on his team with 37 targets and is amazingly 10th in the NFL in targets among all players. When you have that kind of volume from the tight end position, it can’t be ignored. He’s priced like a dirt-cheap wideout but the guys in that range pale in comparison volume-wise. It’s a solid matchup in London against Chicago, so while the numbers aren’t perfect, his involvement in this offense has me spending up in a tricky week for the tight end position.

TE Mark Andrews, Baltimore (DraftKings $4,800 FanDuel $6,100)

Team O/U (open) O/U (current) Implied Team Total vs. QB vs. RB vs. WR vs. TE
bal -3 -3.5 23.75 14 26 21 14
pit 42.5 44 20.25 12 28 23 12

Andrews is second on his team in targets with 32 on the year which, much like Darren Waller, that volume rivals many teams WR1’s. Pittsburgh should have been scored on by Tyler Eifert last week which would have pushed its ranking into a more ideal range matchup wise but Eifert dropped a sure touchdown. Baltimore was embarrassed at home last week by Cleveland so I’d expect Baltimore to come out swinging against its most hated rival. Given the “better than it seems” matchup and target market share on his team, Andrews looks like a solid bet in Week 5.

TE Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati (DraftKings $3,300 FanDuel $4,600)

Team O/U (open) O/U (current) Implied Team Total vs. QB vs. RB vs. WR vs. TE
az 48.5 47.5 22 30 15 7 32
cin -4 -3.5 25.5 20 32 5 7

This is the obligatory “start your tight end against Arizona” pick. Yes, he’ll be widely owned but yes he’s still Tyler Eifert so he very well could flop so be on the look-out for price pivots. He drew five targets last week, including two in the red zone, which is critical for a low-volume tight end to have success so there is positive volume implied based on last week’s data. John Ross was placed on Injured Reserve this week and while they run very different routes, one less mouth to feed theoretically should benefit Eifert in some capacity. The matchup and price tag make a lot of sense in this spot.

TE Jimmy Graham, Green Bay (DraftKings $4,300 FanDuel $5,500)

Team O/U (open) O/U (current) Implied Team Total vs. QB vs. RB vs. WR vs. TE
gb 48 46 21.25 2 30 1 9
dal -4 -3.5 24.75 6 12 4 24

As of this writing, Davante Adams has yet to resume practicing and looks likely to miss this Week 5 tilt at Dallas. Graham vaults from third to second in targets (18) among Green Bay pass catchers if Adams sits and he drew a whopping five red zone targets a week ago. His price is a little higher than I’d like, but in a game that should provide ample fireworks, with the WR1 potentially out of the picture, Graham is worth a short in a thin position for Week 5.

About David Olivarez

David has been writing fantasy football content steadily since 2012 on the web and has been a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association since 2014. He focuses on Daily Fantasy Sports and Trade Analysis. Feel free to ask him questions on Twitter!