Wednesday - Nov 20, 2019

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DFS GEMS: Week 6

What an absolutely ridiculous Week 5 for guaranteed prize pools (GPP)! When you need to score north of 200 just to minimum cash in the Millionaire Maker you know some players have really gone off that day! Thankfully we had five of the top 10 overall players in our Week 5 article (Will Fuller, Christian McCaffrey, Michael Thomas, D.J. Chark (really happy with this call) and Matt Ryan. We would have had six of the overall Top 10 but Chris Godwin (34.5 points – WR6) was outscored by Adam Thielen by .5. All in all, it was a great week of GPP play for yours truly and I hope you had success as well! 

The importance of stacking cannot be understated. I had the right read on the Atlanta/Houston game I just went heavy on the Matt Ryan/Julio Jones stack with a Will Fuller “peel back” opponent stack. Truth be told I don’t think I would have been able to shake the Ryan/Jones stack if I played the same slate 10 more times but this is why it’s important to balance your exposure and go all-in on your read! Don’t get me wrong, I had a nice day but all the pieces were there for it to be a HUGE day if I had just played things a little differently. Nevertheless, we’re on to Week 6.

 As a reminder – the rankings below indicate the corresponding team’s ranking in average DraftKings points allowed per game (YTD). The higher the number, the better the matchup. All info that applies to the recommended player will be displayed in bold.

Quarterbacks

QB Gardner Minshew, Jacksonville (DraftKings $5,000, FanDuel $6,900)

Team O/U (open) O/U (current) Implied Team Total vs. QB vs. RB vs. WR vs. TE
no 44 44 21.75 29 6 26 13
jax -1.5 -1 22.75 16 25 20 11

New Orleans has been quite generous to opposing passers this season, allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to the position. Minshew, for his part, has really been heating up of late posting a 27.2 point effort last week against Carolina, who ranks as the 10th stingiest opponent for enemy quarterbacks. If he can be successful against a superior opponent I wonder how he’ll fare against a much softer secondary at home in Jacksonville? It is a strong matchup for his receivers too so fire up the rookie in a game that could easily soar past the current 44-point projection.

QB Kirk Cousins, Minnesota (DraftKings $5,200, FanDuel $7,000)

Team O/U (open) O/U (current) Implied Team Total vs. QB vs. RB vs. WR vs. TE
phi 44 44 22 18 5 28 16
min -3 -3 23.5 8 4 18 20

We bet on Cousins last week and it paid off with a Top 10 showing. In Week 6 he draws the ever-generous Philadelphia defense, whose defense is a flat out joke! We’ve seen Cousins heat up in years past and he could be on a similar heater right now. With the way the main slate looks this week, we’ll need to spend-down somewhere. The matchup is great for both quarterback and wide receiver, so combine that with an all-world pass-catching running back in Dalvin Cook and I think we’ve got a relatively safe investment at quarterback this week. 

QB Deshaun Watson, Houston (DraftKings $6,700, FanDuel $8,400)

Team O/U (open) O/U (current) Implied Team Total vs. QB vs. RB vs. WR vs. TE
hou 54 55 25 24 24 27 5
kc -8.5 -5 30 21 20 9 27

If you’re going to spend up on a quarterback this week, Watson gets the nod for me. He’s slightly cheaper than Patrick Mahomes ($7,500) and Lamar Jackson ($6,900) so he’ll likely be a bit “chalky” but in a game with a 55-point over/under that’s to be expected. The stack with his wideouts doesn’t look great on paper but it’s still very viable given Kansas City’s propensity to generate shootout scenarios. I love the matchup numbers this week but I’m also a big fan of Watson’s efficiency through five games. He currently ranks sixth in completion percentage and is tied for second in the league with 11 passing touchdowns. He’s slightly behind Russell Wilson in both categories and while Wilson is $100 cheaper than Watson, Seattle’s matchup against Cleveland just doesn’t have the same potential for “fireworks.” Be prepared to share ownership but it should prove worthwhile.

QB Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco (DraftKings $5,700, FanDuel $7,200)

Team O/U (open) O/U (current) Implied Team Total vs. QB vs. RB vs. WR vs. TE
sf 48.5 50.5 23.75 2 1 8 3
lar -5 -3 26.75 17 21 19 15

This one is a bit risky but he’s got a solid matchup and San Francisco is running hot, fresh off its Monday night stomping of Cleveland. His numbers haven’t been eye-popping this season as San Francisco has leaned heavily on the rushing game through its first four contests (Week 4 bye). If undefeated San Francisco wants to be considered legit contenders it will need to get the passing attack rolling sooner rather than later. This road tilt with the highly-potent Los Angeles Rams offense should be just the game to take the gloves off. The matchups look great across the board for all skill positions and Garoppolo has been pretty average so far in 2019. Slip him into a few GPP’s this week, as there’s a good chance he surprises some folks. 

About David Olivarez

David has been writing fantasy football content steadily since 2012 on the web and has been a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association since 2014. He focuses on Daily Fantasy Sports and Trade Analysis. Feel free to ask him questions on Twitter!