Green Bay Packers (Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Aaron Jones)
Last week, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady met in what was supposed to be a competitive NFC playoff preview. Instead, the Packers were embarrassed by the Bucs, and Rodgers had his worst performance of the season. Luckily, the Packers have a great chance to right the ship against the Texans this Sunday. Green Bay is in a great bounce-back spot after a terrible showing in front of a primetime audience. Rodgers has been getting ripped this week for his poor performance, and will certainly play with a chip on his shoulder as a result. Houston has had defensive problems all season long; they can’t rush the quarterback, stop the run, and they give up big downfield plays. This sets Rodgers up for a ceiling performance; 300 yards passing and 3-4 touchdowns is well within the range of outcomes.
Targeting the Packers in DFS is always a great strategy when they have positive matchups because their offense is very concentrated. Davante Adams and Aaron Jones are the “go to” guys for their squad, and dominate most of the team’s offensive opportunities. Adams is a double-digit target recipient regardless of game script, and often can see 15 targets in competitive contests. While he was quiet against Tampa, it is worth noting that he’s missed considerable time with a hamstring injury and some rust should have been expected after such a long lay off. Adams will get back on track in this soft matchup and could possibly score multiple touchdowns.
Meanwhile, Aaron Jones makes a lot of sense to stack with Rodgers. While stacking running back with quarterback offers mixed results, this should be a spot where it’s a sound strategy. Jones has an excellent matchup, as the Texans have one of the worst rushing defenses in the league. Not only that, but Jones is heavily involved in the passing game as well, averaging nearly 6 targets per game. Some may argue with Adams healthy, Jones will see a reduced target volume, but I disagree. Jones is a pivotal piece in this offense, and is talented enough to produce even if a reduction does happen.
Rather than playing the guessing game with Green Bay’s auxiliary pieces, just target the main guys on this offense. That way, you can monopolize fantasy points from this high scoring team.
Buffalo Bills (Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs)
Buffalo has had a string of bad performances lately, dropping two big games to the Titans and Chiefs. Josh Allen has cooled off from his hot start, amassing only 385 passing yards total in those two weeks. He’s also not found the endzone with his legs either; his last rushing touchdown came against the Raiders in Week 4. Look for Allen to rebound against the incompetent Jets defense that can’t seem to stop anyone. He is set up for success, as he won’t have a competent pass rush to contend with, and New York’s secondary allows deep plays at will. Allen should reach his ceiling, scoring on the ground and through the air.
Stefon Diggs has proven himself to be an elite wide receiver as the main man for Buffalo. Diggs is receiving nearly 30% of the team’s target share, and has made due on his bell cow role. Thus far, he’s tallied 407 receiving yards with a solid 12.7 yards/reception. His touchdown totals leave a bit to be desired, as he has scored just three times this season. This number will certainly increase against the Jets. They struggle mightily against speedy wide receivers, and have been allowing numerous downfield plays each game. Diggs should have no problem getting behind this porous secondary, and has a great chance for multiple touchdowns.
Cincinnati Bengals (Joe Burrow, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins)
The Browns travel to Cincinnati this Sunday for a rematch in the Battle of Ohio. When these two teams met before, Cleveland prevailed over the Bengals with a score of 50-35. It was a thrilling Thursday night game for fantasy owners, and another high scoring affair should be in the works.
Joe Burrow has impressed in his rookie campaign, passing for over 1,600 yards and breaking 300 in 4 of 6 games. However, he is in a bit of a touchdown drought, as his last passing score came in Week 4 against the Jaguars. Positive regression is coming, and Cleveland affords him the perfect opportunity. The Browns have been dealing with injuries all over their defense since the season started, which should afford the Bengals’ weapons time to get open. While Burrow will have some problem against Cleveland’s stellar pass rush, he should be able to find his receivers downfield when given a clean pocket. He might not end up as the highest scoring quarterback this week, but a deflated ownership and reasonable salary make him a great GPP play.
Cincinnati is quietly building a dangerous wide receiving core who should do well against the Browns. Cleveland ranks near the top of the league in most fantasy points allowed to receivers, meaning both Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins are viable plays. Boyd has become a reliable target for Burrow, with almost 40 receptions and over 400 yards receiving on the year. He only has one touchdown, but has had a few negated due to penalties. Hopefully, Boyd can catch a break and find the endzone. If not, he still has a great floor and is the best option if stacking in cash games.
Tee Higgins has been turning heads as of late and justifiably so. He became the Bengals preferred deep threat, averaging 15.4 yards/reception and has permanently replaced Jon Ross on the depth chart. Higgin’s has made some spectacular catches, but has only scored twice. Both came in the same game, so he certainly has a high ceiling. He should have continued production against an ailing secondary, and is a threat to add to his touchdown total. Both he and Boyd are viable in GPP contests, but Higgins should be avoided in cash games.