Tuesday - Sep 29, 2020

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DFS VALUE PLAYS: Week 11

Pricing around the industry will make it harder to fit in top priced players this week. We have 6 players priced over $8,000 on DraftKings and two quarterbacks over $7,000. The value plays are thin as well but as the week progressed we saw some plays open up.

Quarterbacks

Drew Brees was in the best match-up last week against the Falcons and his 16% ownership showed everyone expected a big game but he failed to throw a touchdown and was held to under 300-yards passing. He finished with 11.48 DraftKings points. Patrick Mahomes returned from injury and was the 2nd highest owned player. He scored 32.84 DraftKings points, which was just 1.48 points short of Daniel Jones who lead the position with 34.32 DraftKings points. Jones was the best value on the slate. The biggest bust was Drew Brees but Aaron Rodgers was a bust as well, scoring just 10.02 DraftKings points.

$DPP Value Plays

Kyle Allen CAR (DK: $5,300/$331 DPP — FD: $7,200/$450 DPP)

Allen continues to have his price remain the same but he is hitting value on his salary. Last week he needed 18 fantasy points to hit value and he did just that. Sure, he didn’t have a monster game like Daniel Jones but if you spent $600 less, then you were able to fit in another player that could have played better than the guy you had at another position. Allen this week gets the Falcons and is at home in a game where the Panthers are expected to score 26.8 points. Christian McCaffrey might get the touchdowns but he may also get them through short throws around the goal-line. The Falcons allow 23.03 DraftKings points per game.

Jeff Driskel DET (DK: $4,600/$329 DPP — FD: $6,700/$479 DPP)

Driskel will make his second start as Matthew Stafford will miss another game with a back injury. In last week’s start he put up a nice 19.06 at $4,100. He was the 2nd best value option last week. His price came up $500 but he remains a good value play this week. The matchup is tougher against the Cowboys who are allowing 13.88 DraftKings points on average but he needs just 14 fantasy points to hit value. He is playing at home which should help and he has rushing upside.

Mitchell Trubisky CHI (DK: $4,900/$340 DPP — FD: $6,900/$460 DPP)

If you don’t trust Driskel then Trubisky is just $300 more and put up a respectable 19.72 DraftKings points last week. He is more touchdown dependent as he doesn’t throw for a ton of yards but with David Montgomery questionable, we could see more passing and dump offs to Tarik Cohen out of the backfield. The matchup isn’t great against the Rams who have given up just 14.19 DraftKings points to the position over the last 4 weeks.

Running Backs

The cheap value plays last week didn’t work out. David Montgomery, Devin Singletary and late value add Damien Williams were 20% percent owned with Montgomery coming in at 45% on average across tournaments. Montgomery and Singletary failed to score over 8 fantasy points while Williams put up a decent 14.9 DraftKings points. The better value option was Ronald Jones scoring 23.6 DraftKings points at almost $1,000 cheaper. The best play was Derrick Henry scoring 36.1 DraftKings points. Christian McCaffery continues to put up 30+ fantasy points despite his elevated price.

$DPP Value Plays

Brian Hill ATL (DK: $4,800/$436 DPP — FD: $5,900/$590 DPP)

This is the chalk play of the week. Devonta Freeman is out and the Falcons have a division game against the Panthers who are the worst team in the league as far as DVOA and allow 42.4 DraftKings points per game over the last 4 weeks. The Falcons are also without Austin Hooper and have traded away Mohamed Sanu so there is a need to for someone to pick up those touches. People will likely play Russell Gage but I think Hill sees more volume.

Kalen Ballage MIA (DK: $4,300/$430 DPP — FD: $5,800/$589 DPP)

Ballage is starting to get the volume in this offense. With Kenyan Drake traded to Arizona, Ballage saw 20 carries last week and 4 targets last week. At his price he needs 13 fantasy points to make value. The Bills can be beat on the ground as they have allowed 29.9 DraftKings over the last four games. The Dolphins have won their last two games so they could put up a fight in this one.

Raheem Mostert SFO (DK: $3,400/$567 DPP — FD: $4,600/$767 DPP)

Matt Breida, George Kittle and Emmanuel Sanders may miss this week’s game. Many will flock to Deebo Samuels and Tevin Coleman but Mostert is also in the mix. Last week the 49ers split the carries almost in thirds with Breida getting 10 carries to Colemans’ 9 and Mostert had 6. He faces the Cardinals who give up a ton of points to the position allowing 31.38 DraftKings points per game over the last four weeks. Monitor his status as he is also banged up; if he is out then that boosts Coleman’s value.

About Walter Collazo

Writer for Fantasy Sharks since 2006. Member of FSTA. Winner of the 2014 Fantasy Football Article of the Year Online award, awarded by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.