Wednesday - Jan 20, 2021

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DFS VALUE PLAYS: Week 16

Happy Holidays! For the main slate, the game to target will be the Cardinals at the Seahawks. That game has the highest implied total of the week with 51 points.

This week there will be 8 rookie quarterbacks starting. It will feel like Week 4 of the preseason for some of these games. Here is how I have them ranked for this week.

  1. Kyler Murray ARI
  2. Daniel Jones NYG
  3. Gardner Minshew JAC
  4. Drew Lock DEN
  5. Will Grier CAR
  6. David Blough DET
  7. Dwayne Haskins WAS
  8. Devlin Hodges PIT

Quarterbacks

Six of the top-8 quarterbacks owned on the slate scored under 20 DraftKings points. Jameis Winston was 6th overall in ownership and scored the most fantasy points on the slate with 36.72 DraftKings points. He scored 10 more fantasy points then the 2nd highest scoring quarterback. The best value play was Dwayne Haskins scoring 20.04 DraftKings points. It was his best fantasy game of the season and the first time in double-digit points over the last 4 games. The biggest bust was Jimmy Garoppolo who had the second highest ownership at 10.5% across GPPs and scored just 12.6 DraftKing points.

$DPP Value Plays

Will Grier CAR (DK: $4,300/$253 DPP — FD: $6,000/$475 DPP)

Grier comes in as simply a price play. He is the cheapest starting quarterback on the board. With that said, he hasn’t shown much on the NFL level. He played poorly during the preseason and has sat behind Kyle Allen all season. What he has working for him is that Christian McCaffrey can take a ton of dump offs and check downs and Greg Olsen is back from injury. He needs just 12.9 fantasy points to pay off his salary. He faces the Colts who ranked 21st in passing defense are allowing 249.8 passing yards per game with 26 touchdowns given up. In the last 4 weeks, the Colts have allowed 31.49 DraftKings points to the position, the most to the position, so there is some upside to playing Grier this week.

Daniel Jones NYJ (DK: $5,900/$337 DPP — FD: $7,300/$417 DPP)

Jones is back as the starter after missing two games with an ankle injury. In the two games prior, he had tough match-ups against the Bears and Packers so people might be down on him. I think with Saquon Barkley back to playing well, he will do better. Not to mention Sterling Shepard and the emergence of Slayton should be enough in this game. Jones’ 2nd career start was against the Redskins where he posted just 225 passing with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. He should do better with two weeks to prepare for this game.

Andy Dalton (DK: $5,200/$325 DPP — FD: $7,100/$444 DPP)

Dalton was awful last week as he was crushed by the Patriots defense and threw 4 interceptions. Had he not thrown the touchdown to his tight end he would have scored just 1.82 DraftKings points. He wouldn’t be considered if it wasn’t for his match-up this week. He faces the Dolphins who are 24th in passing defense with 257.9 passing yards per game and allow the 2nd most touchdowns on the season with 33. The risk is if Joe Mixon goes off, Dalton will be a non-factor. Dolphins allow 21.43 DraftKings points to the position over the past 4 weeks.

About Walter Collazo

Writer for Fantasy Sharks since 2006. Member of FSTA. Winner of the 2014 Fantasy Football Article of the Year Online award, awarded by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.