Tuesday - Nov 12, 2019

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DFS VALUE PLAYS: Week 2

After a crazy Week 1, we enter Week 2 with a lot of recency bias. Expect players such as Lamar Jackson, Sammy Watkins and Chris Carson to have a ton of ownership in Week 2. I am not suggesting that these players will be a bust this week but fading the ownership might be a good plan of action.

There were a lot of good plays in Week 1 but the problem was that the field was on the same plays and so there were heavy ownership on the guys that performed well outside of players such as John Ross, Marquise Brown and Case Keenum who had almost no ownership at all.

Looking at the top score in Week 1’s $5M Fantasy Football Millionaire contest on DraftKings the top score was 281.36. The cash-line for this contest was around 169 points. Comparing it to last year’s Week 1 contest the top score was 301.18. However, in Week 2 the top score dropped to 237.84. That is a big gap from one week to the next. The average score for the remainder of the season for the winning lineup was between 230-250 DraftKings points. I would expect with the salaries coming up some that it will bring down the totals from Week 1 significantly.

Quarterbacks

In Week 1 we saw Carson Wentz lead the slate with 10% ownership. He was followed by Jameis Winston and Kirk Cousins who both failed to produce a big fantasy day. Winston was the biggest bust based on ownership. Cam Newton was the next biggest bust scoring just 7.36 DK points at $6,500. Lamar Jackson at 6% led the position with 36.56 DK points. The best value was Case Keenum at $4,900 scoring 30.2 DK points.

$DPP Value Plays

Josh Allen BUF (DK: $5,300/$294 DPP — FD: $7,500/$417 DPP)

In Week 1 Allen produced 254 passing yards with 1 touchdown to 2 interceptions with 38 yards rushing and a score on the ground. This week he faces the 27th ranked Giants pass defense that gave up 405 yards and 4 touchdowns passes to Dallas in Week 1. The Bills are going to attack the Giants corners and could be a cheap stack in tournaments as John Brown is the only Bills receiver over $4,000 at just $5,200.

Matthew Stafford DET (DK: $5,200/$347 DPP — FD: $7,000/$467 DPP)

Stafford had a great Week 1 which included extra opportunity in overtime; he finished with 385 yards passing and 3 touchdowns. He went heavy to his rookie tight end T.J. Hockenson and slot receiver Danny Amendola. Kenny Golladay received 9 targets and had a score. Marvin Jones and running back Kerryon Johnson were hardly used in the pass game. I expect Johnson to receive more targets this week as Amendola faces Desmond King who is one of the top slot defenders in the league. The Chargers did a good job of limiting the Colts to just 190 passing but gave up two touchdowns to T.Y. Hilton.

Ryan Fitzpatrick MIA (DK: $4,700/$362 DPP — FD: $6,200/$477 DPP)

Is the magic gone? The Ravens made easy work of Fitzpatrick in Week 1 limiting him to just 185 yards passing and 1 touchdown while limiting his completion percentage to just 48.3%. Fitzpatrick is a risky play this week against a good Patriots team but we’ve seen the Dolphins come out and play hard against their division rivals before. Fitzpatrick is the lowest price starting quarterback and would allow you to pay up at other positions.

Running Backs

We had 4 running backs with 20%+ ownership in Week 1. Dalvin Cook was 37% owned followed by Chris Carson, Leonard Fournette and Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey led all running backs with 45.9 DK points. Founette disappointed with just 12.4 DK points. The biggest bust was a toss-up between Ezekiel Elliott, Todd Gurley and Joe Mixon. The best value was Malcolm Brown scoring 17.3 DK points at $3,800.

$DPP Value Plays

Josh Jacobs OAK (DK: $4,700/$276 DPP — FD: $5,200/$520 DPP)

The Raiders are all under-priced and receive the benefit of playing on Monday night in Week 1 where the salaries remain unchanged. Jacobs ran well in his first game carrying the ball 23 times for 85 yards and two touchdowns. He will be very chalky this week but you can’t pass up that value at his price. The Chiefs were tough in Week 1 holding Leonard Fournette to just 66 yards on the ground. However the volume and price are too good to pass up.

Chris Thompson WAS (DK: $3,900/$433 DPP — FD: $5,300/$530 DPP)

Derrius Guice was listed as the starter in Week 1 and the team decided to make Adrian Peterson inactive. Guice was injured during the game which will allow Peterson to get the start. However, Thompson is the running back in this offense that I want as he is a big part of the passing game. Last week he only received 3 carries but he was targeted 10 times catching 7 passes for 68 yards. This is another tough matchup for Washington but there will be enough targets for Thompson at a low price.

James White NEP (DK: $5,100/$319 DPP — FD: $6,400/$582 DPP)

It is always scary to rely on a Patriot running back in DFS as the main guy can change from week-to-week in their offense. White only received 4 rushing attempts in Week 1 but had 7 targets that he converted to 5 catches for 56 yards. Last week Sony Michel lead the team in carries but could only manage 14 yards on 15 carries. Rex Burkhead also caught 5 passes out of the backfield so there is some risk that White could split the targets evenly with Burkhead. The match-up couldn’t be any better this week against the Dolphins who allowed 107 yards rushing and to scores to Mark Ingram.

About Walter Collazo

Writer for Fantasy Sharks since 2006. Member of FSTA. Winner of 2014 Fantasy Football Article of the Year Online, awarded by FTSA.