Julio Jones remains as one of the most frustrating players for DFS this season. He has had three letdown weeks so far, which includes this past weekend where he had just 5 targets for 62 yards. It was a prime match-up against the Steelers where everyone thought he would finally score and win you a GPP. He has now gone 10 regular season games without a touchdown and just 4 receiving touchdowns over his last 23 games which include the playoffs. It is not like he isn’t producing, as he is averaging 19.5 DK points a game with 6.8 receptions, 112.8 receiving yards on 11 targets per game. The issue is he hasn’t been consistent with 30 points one week and 11 points the next. Every week the anticipation for the two touchdown game is growing. This week he faces the Buccaneers who rank 32nd in the NFL allowing 358 passing yards per game and gave up 13 touchdowns to just 1 interception. I expect the ownership on Jones to be high as his salary is $7,900 on Draftkings and $8,500 on Fanduel. Given the inconsistency of his fantasy production there will be plenty of people not knowing whether to fade Jones or not. I plan to have exposure to him but will also cover myself with lineups without him.
As expected last week Ben Roethlisberger was the highest owned quarterback in fantasy with 13.12% ownership and scoring 22.6 DK points. Surprising to me, Matt Ryan wasn’t the second highest owned quarterback as Matthew Stafford edged him out. They both failed to meet value scoring around 15 DK points. It was a tough week for quarterbacks as 7 of the 8 quarterbacks after Roethlisberger scored under 20 DK points. Aaron Rodgers was the highest scoring quarterback with 33.68 DK points. I thought the ownership on Blake Bortles would have been high based on all the chatter during the week but he was only 7.4% owned across tournaments and scored the second most quarterback points at 28.6 DK points. The biggest bust was Matt Ryan just based on the ownership. The best value on the board was C.J. Beathard at $4,900 scoring 27.66 DK points.
$DPP Value Plays
Jameis Winston (DK: $5,800/$242 DPP — FD: $7,400/$352 DPP)
Winston is the top quarterback value in our $DPP chart and rightfully so. As bad as the Buccaneers have been on pass defense, so have the Falcons. The Falcons rank 23rd in passing yards allowed with 277.2 per game and have allowed 1 less touchdown then the Bucs. The Falcons have allowed 3 touchdowns scored in every game since Week 2. In five starts against the Falcons, Winston has averaged 22.82 fantasy points with multiple touchdowns in three of those games.
Derek Carr (DK: $5,100/$392 DPP — FD: $6,900/$531 DPP)
After a big game in week 4, Carr was subpar in week 5 (it rhymes!). He has a good matchup this week against the Seahawks who are not as good defensively as they have been in years past. Especially now that Earl Thomas is out for the season. Though Seattle hasn’t given up a ton of yards passing they have allowed 9 touchdowns with 7 of the 9 coming over the last three games. I prefer Carr over the guys in this price range as a punt option.
The Steelers were playing in one of the highest total games and yet James Conner wasn’t the highest owned running back. He came in as the 5th highest owned running back at 20.1% in tournaments scoring the most DK points among running backs with 37.5. David Johnson, T.J. Yeldon and Christian McCaffrey were the 3 highest own running backs at around 30% scoring between 20-26 DK points. While 15% of the field played Aaron Jones and came up short with his 7.9 DK points, it was Isaiah Crowell who was the best value scoring 33.1 DK points. It was a pretty good week overall for running backs so the biggest bust would have to be both Falcon running backs.
$DPP Value Plays
Chris Carson (DK: $4,400/$338 DPP — FD: $6,400/$533 DPP)
There aren’t a ton of guys in this price range that are getting the amount of touches Carson is getting. Last week he ran the ball 19 times and caught 1 pass. The previous week he carried the ball 32 times and caught 2 passes. If he’s going to get that kind of work at this price point, he has to be considered a core value play. He faces the Raiders who rank 28th in rushing yards allowed with 127.2 yards per game and have given up 6 rushing scores.
Bilal Powell (DK: $4,500/$409 DPP — FD: $5,800/$580 DPP)
Powell is another running back I am considering this week as Isaiah Crowell has missed practice this week due to an ankle injury. Powell last week rushed the ball 20 times for 99 yards and if Crowell is out, would get the majority of the touches. He faces a Colts team that ranks 18th in rushing yards allowed with 106.8 per game and 5 touch downs given up. The Colts have allowed 27 fantasy points or more in 4 out of 5 games this season.