Sunday - Sep 22, 2019

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DFS VALUE PLAYS: Week 7

One of the most interesting things about daily fantasy is how you can have a similar lineup to someone who is way up on the leaderboard but yet a few different players can create a big separation between you and that person. You are looking over your lineup from last week and you see that both of you had Jameis Winston, Julio Jones and C.J. Uzomah. So how does this person have so many more points than you? You played T.J. Yeldon, Mike Evans and the Chicago defense to go along but then you start to see where it changes. Instead of Evans and Yeldon they used Ezekiel Elliott and James Conner. This gives them 53.6 DraftKings points to your 19.8 DraftKings points for a advantage of 33.8 DraftKings points. Then you see they used the Baltimore defense and JuJu Smith-Schuster instead of the Chicago defense and Jarvis Landry giving them an additional 36 DraftKings point advantage. With those four players at almost the same price his lineup has scored 69.8 more DraftKings points.

Sometimes the difference isn’t so extreme. It could be as close as David Johnson vs. Larry Fitzgerald where Fitzgerald outscored Johnson by four points and that was the difference between cashing your lineup or winning nothing. The point is to look at every pivot you can when constructing lineups. There are going to be chalk plays like Julio Jones and Matt Ryan where you know they are in a good spot and you make them your core plays but it’s the other selections such as your mid-range wide receiver, the tight end or your flex spot that can make or break your lineup.

Quarterback

As mentioned the chalk plays at quarterback were Jameis Winston and Matt Ryan. They were the only quarterbacks with double-digit ownership at 21 percent and 19 percent respectively. They were also one of the highest-scoring quarterbacks on the slate. The biggest bust was Jared Goff scoring just 8.44 DraftKings points and was the fourth-highest owned quarterback. The best value play was Brock Osweiler at $4,300 getting the last minute start in place of Ryan Tannehill. He scored 31 DraftKings points.

Dollar Per Point Value Plays

Brock Osweiler (DraftKings: $4,700/$392 Dollar Per Point — FanDuel: $6,500/$542 Dollar Per Point)

Osweiler looks to be the quarterback for Miami at least for a while. His price has only increased $400 from last. Even though the Detroit pass defense has performed well this season it still has allowed double-digit touchdowns in all but one game. At his price he would need just 14 DraftKings points to meet value. His salary would allow you to load up on other players.

Cam Newton (DraftKings: $5,900/$295 Dollar Per Point — FanDuel: $8,200/$410 Dollar Per Point)

I love the price on Newton this week as he is below $6,000. Newton hasn’t been below 18 DraftKings points all season and has a ceiling of at least 35 points. The match-up against Philadelphia is a good one as Carolina has allowed 290 passing yards per game with eight passing touchdowns given up this season. Newton already has 208 rushing yards on the season, which equates 41.5 rushing yards per game. The Philadelphia secondary has under-performed this season and Newton has a good opportunity to take advantage.

Running Back

There was a lot of volatility for the Top 10 owned backs. Three of the Top 5 owned running backs didn’t make value, especially Tevin Coleman and Chris Carson, who were the highest owned at 20-25 percent. T.J. Yeldon was another high-owned disappointment in this group. Todd Gurley was the third-highest owned running back regardless of his $10,000 price tag on DraftKings. He was also the highest-scoring running back with 39.5 DraftKings points. The biggest bust was Jordan Howard as the only player $6,500 or more who failed to score double-digit points. He finished with just 6.5 DraftKings points. The best value was Latavius Murray at $4,700 taking advantage of a late scratch from Dalvin Cook to score 25.8 DraftKings points.

Dollar Per Point Value Plays

Nick Chubb (DraftKings: $3,600/$225 Dollar Per Point — FanDuel: $4,800/$343 Dollar Per Point)

Big news out of Cleveland this week as Cleveland has traded Carlos Hyde to Jacksonville. This creates big opportunity for the remaining running backs left in Cleveland. Hyde played half of the snaps this season and Chubb will see his workload increase. He is at near minimum price and is your free bingo square this week. He also will get a great matchup this week against Tampa Bay, who has allowed 28.7 fantasy points per game with five rushing touchdowns given up this season.

Peyton Barber (DraftKings: $3,800/$317 Dollar Per Point — FanDuel: $6,100/$555 Dollar Per Point)

There is another team that allows 28.7 fantasy points per game to running backs – Cleveland. Barber has under-performed this season but finally turned in a big game last week scoring 20.6 DraftKings points. Cleveland has allowed seven rushing touchdowns this season. Cleveland has had some injuries on the defensive side, which will allow Barber to find more running room. He also caught four passes last week on four targets so it is nice to see him getting some looks after only getting two targets in the first four games.

About Walter Collazo

Writer for Fantasy Sharks since 2006. Member of FSTA. Winner of 2014 Fantasy Football Article of the Year Online, awarded by FTSA.