This week in DFS should be a very interesting one as the trade deadline has ended and there were a few moving pieces that will impact the games this week. Players that were traded to new teams such as Demaryius Thomas, Golden Tate and Amari Cooper will look to fill team needs. There are also players that benefit after these trades were made such as Aaron Jones, Courtland Sutton and Kenny Golladay who all should see more work moving forward.
How this affects DFS this week is by having a number of players under-priced for their role, change in the ownership we’ve seen the past couple of weeks and a lot of uncertainty. We also had a coach and coordinator fired in Cleveland and do not know how that team will utilize its players this week.
Last week the ownership was spread pretty evenly across the position. Aaron Rodgers was the highest owned quarterback with 17% of the ownership. Jared Goff and Jameis Winston came in as the next two highest owned around 12% each. Patrick Mahomes was finally on the main slate after playing in a number of prime time games. He led all quarterbacks with 30 DK points. He was also $700 more than Aaron Rodgers. The next 11 highest priced quarterbacks after Mahomes all scored 20+ fantasy points which didn’t lend much of an advantage among them. The biggest bust was Jameis Winston who was benched during the game scoring just 12.84 DK points. The best value was Derek Carr at $5,100 on DK scoring 27.76.
$DPP Value Plays
Ryan Fitzpatrick (DK: $5,500/$306 DPP — FD: $7,100/$394 DPP)
Fitzmagic is back after taking over last week for a struggling Jameis Winston. He gets the top DPP value over on FanDuel. He faces division rival Carolina Panthers who haven’t allowed a lot of yardage to quarterbacks but have given up two passing touchdowns in 6 straight games. However, the Panthers have played some teams with poor receiving corps and the Buccaneers can take advantage of the Panthers shaky secondary. In his first three starts, Fitzpatrick put up 31+ DK points and last week had almost 20 in half a game.
Brock Osweiler (DK: $4,900/$377 DPP — FD: $6,700/$515 DPP)
I don’t like the low end quarterbacks so I would recommend not spending down this week as there are plenty of value plays this week that you can spend up some at this position. However if you are looking at a punt play, look at Osweiler over the other guys in the range including Alex Smith. The Jets have a ton of injuries so don’t expect them to be able to sustain drives which will lead to more opportunity for Osweiler. The Jets are allowing multiple touchdown games in 6 of their last 7 contest. Two touchdowns would easily pay off this low salary.
We saw the heaviest ownership from Todd Gurley, James Conner and Kareem Hunt. Conner outscored Gurley 41.2 DK points to 36.5. Hunt finished with 19.1 DK points. Saquon Barkley was the second highest price running back and was a third less owned then the players mentioned in tournaments scoring 20.1 DK points. The biggest bust was Isaiah Crowell, even though he was priced down to $3,700 on DK, he was the only player with 10% or more ownership to score less than 5 points. The best value on the board was Adrian Peterson at $4,900 on DK who rushed for 149 yards and a touchdown to score 30.6 DK points.
$DPP Value Plays
Jordan Howard (DK: $4,700/$445 DPP — FD: $6,200/$517 DPP)
We expect this game to be won by the Bears easily as the defense should handle Nathan Peterman and provide short fields for the offense. Last week Howard carried the ball 22 times and should be counted on this week to grind out 20+ carries. The Bills have allowed three 100+ yards rushing games to opposing teams this season and have given up 7 rushing touchdowns. Howard should easily reach double-digit fantasy points.
Mark Ingram (DK: $5,000/$357 DPP — FD: $7,400/$617 DPP)
Ingram hasn’t played well on the road scoring just 6.2 DK points in Week 7 and 12 DK points last week. He will be at home this week where he put up 21.3 DK points back in week 6. This game has the highest total on the slate with 57.5 implied points. Expect Ingram to take advantage of the soft middle of the Rams defense where running backs have found success against this defense. He is $2,300 cheaper than Alvin Kamara who will likely be double the ownership.