Monday - Dec 16, 2019

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DFS VALUE: Week 16

Week 16 is here and for some of us, we are grinding DFS as well as preparing for a Fantasy Championship in season long leagues. Who thought the fantasy championships would come down to players such as C.J. Anderson if Todd Gurley sits and Nick Foles but that’s what some teams are faced with. In DFS it feels like slim pickings as well with how many players have the game time decision tag, while players such as Cam Newton and James Conner have already been ruled out.

This week you need to pay attention to the players that are still in meaningful games while some are already mailing it in for the season. When the Panthers shut down Cam Newton for the rest of the season I think it will be a good idea to fade Christian McCaffrey. Even though the Falcons defense hasn’t been good this season, it would be easy for them to focus on stopping McCaffrey and forcing the Panthers to try and beat them with their other receivers.

Quarterbacks

Many people targeted the Patriots vs the Steelers game last week and both Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger were the highest own quarterbacks on the main slate. In fact, they were the only two QBs with double-digit ownership. They both however finished with around 15 fantasy points for a disappointing day. The biggest busts were Andrew Luck and Dak Prescott who both failed to score over 10 fantasy points. The best value was Matt Ryan who was the only quarterback to score over 20 fantasy points with 25.04 DK points and was just 4% owned.

$DPP Value Plays

Nick Foles (DK: $4,700/$276 DPP — FD: $6,000/$353 DPP)

Foles price only went up $200 on Draftkings and remained the same on FanDuel. He is playing in a meaningful game where the Eagles and Texans both are still trying to finish first in their division as well as secure a playoff spot. The Texans caught a break last week but before that they had allowed over 300 passing yards in their previous 3 games. The Texans allow the 3rd most plays of 40 or more yards on the season and allow 16.8 fantasy points per game to the position. With how poorly the Eagles defense has played, Foles will have to throw often if this becomes a shootout.

Taylor Heinicke (DK: $4,000/$250 DPP — FD: $6,000/$375 DPP)

If you are looking for a pure punt option so that you can fit in as many running backs as you can, then Heinicke will allow you the salary relief to be able to do it. Heinicke will start for Cam Newton for the rest of the season. I mention earlier that Christian McCaffrey would be someone I would fade but in a large GPP it could benefit you to stack him with Heinicke. If you look at the Falcons defense, their stats against the position are all over the place. They are 2nd in the league in points allowed to the position with 21.2 fantasy points per game however, over the prior week they had held quarterbacks under 200-yards passing in three straight games. Still at $4,000 you don’t need much for him to hit value. On Fanduel where he is the same price as Foles, go with Foles.

Running Backs

We had a very heavy ownership week for the running backs at the top as Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott were 20-30% owned across tournaments. Joe Mixon was the highest owned player with 48% of the ownership followed by Elliott. Jaylen Samuels and Dalvin Cook also generated high ownership as they were owned higher than Barkley. Mixon and Cook were the best pairing, where they each scored at least 30 DK points. Saquon Barkley was the biggest bust scoring just 9.6 DK points. The best value was Marlon Mack who scored 29.9 DK points at just $4,900.

$DPP Value Plays

Elijah McGuire (DK: $4,700/$389 DPP — FD: $5,700/$570 DPP)

McGuire continues to receive good volume over the last few weeks as he had at least 17 rushing attempts in each game. He has scored 15+ DK points in his last two and faces a Packers defense that have allowed over 22 fantasy points in 4 of their last 5 games. Trenton Cannon is the backup but McGuire is more than double his attempts. With most of the value guys from the last few week priced up, McGuire might be the only real value option on the slate.

Zach Zenner (DK: $3,600/$514 DPP — FD: $5,500/$786 DPP)

If you are looking for a pure punt option, Zenner would be an option. The Lions have shut down Kerryon Johnson for the season and with no other running backs for the Lions, Zenner is the only option. He has a tough match-up against the Vikings but the volume should be there. The Vikings allow defense ranks 11th in the league but over the past three weeks they have allowed over 100 yards to opponents with four rushing touchdowns. Zenner last week rushed 10 times for 45 yards and a touchdown.

About Walter Collazo

Writer for Fantasy Sharks since 2006. Member of FSTA. Winner of the 2014 Fantasy Football Article of the Year Online award, awarded by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.