Saturday - Jun 12, 2021

Home / Wagering / HITTING PAYDIRT: Week 10


Welcome back to Hitting Paydirt, a weekly article that looks at the touchdown scorers this week. When looking for touchdown scorers, value is important. Some sites offer in-game betting on touchdown scorers so if you can hold off on taking a star player like Aaron Jones at -200 to score, wait until late in the first quarter or second quarter to place a bet at a better number if he is still scoreless.

I am not suggesting to play all of these touchdown scorers below, but if there is value, they will be listed. You should not bet the same amount per player and depending on your book, you may also be able to parlay some of these. I’ll use the lines from DraftKings and Fanduel. Be sure to shop your books for the best lines as they can be drastically different from site to site. The best price from each site is listed next to each player as of Saturday at noon.

Week 10 Picks

This week I will post one player from every game I would consider the best bet to score a touchdown and one value play based on the odds. The Vegas total is listed next to each game. The higher the total, the better the touchdown chances, of course. Fanduel offers Same Game Parlays where you can combine multiple players from the same game to score a touchdown. On Draftkings, you can parlay players from different games, but not the same one.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Green Bay Packers (47.5)

Best Bet: Jamaal Williams +200
Value Play: Green Bay D/St +410
I won’t list Aaron Jones -290 or Davante Adams -210 to score as those odds are too high. Keep an eye on Fanduel’s Live Player Props after kickoff to grab better odds if they do not score early.

Philadelphia Eagles @ N.Y. Giants (44.5)

Best Bet: Miles Sanders -105
Value Play: Dallas Goedert +250
Sanders vs. Gallman (+135) was a close call for best bet, but Sanders is probably a bit safer. Gallman has scored in three straight since taking over as the lead back.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers (50.5)

Best Bet: Mike Davis +110
Value Play: Leonard Fournette +180

The Panthers give up a ton of catches and yards to opposing RB’s. Fournette gets the edge in the pass game over Ronald Jones. Mike Davis is a lukewarm best bet. There are more value plays than locks in this one.

D.J. Moore is not a touchdown play this week, but he had lines of 9-89 and 7-73 against Tampa last year. Moore’s props for Over 4.5 receptions (+102) and Over 54.5 yards (-105) are both good plays.

Houston Texans @ Cleveland Browns (45.5)

Best Bet: Duke Johnson +125
Value Play: Will Fuller +195

Duke Johnson with the revenge game against his former team and should get plenty of touches with David Johnson out. Will Fuller has scored in six straight games and is +195 this week. That is too good to pass up. Cooks +250 and Watson +260 are honorable mentions.

Washington Football Team @ Detroit Lions (46)

Best Bet: T.J. Hockenson +135
Value Play: Logan Thomas +280

Roll the dice with the tight ends in this game. The Lions have been eaten up by opposing tight ends recently and the Lions are without their top red zone threat in Golladay.

About Nick Pagliuca

Nick has been competitively playing fantasy sports for over 15 years and has been very active in sports betting analysis. Nick participates mainly in fantasy football and offers gambling advice on all major sports.