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DRAFT DAY: Players to Avoid Rounds 1-3

Every year there are players who come into draft season over hyped and people feel the need to grab them no matter what the cost. The draft is only phase one of the season, but you don’t want to start the season in a hole because you drafted on name value or drafted a guy based on his past performances. Below there are 5 players that currently have an ADP that is too high to warrant being selected where they are going . When drafting a team you want solid players and high upside guys in good situations. Their value is being over inflated and is not worth the risk while trying to build the foundation of your team.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City

The guy is great, he’s a fantastic player with a bright future. However with an ADP of 3.02, you should be passing on him. This is way too high for a quarterback to be drafted. Let someone else make the mistake of taking Mahomes this early. There are plenty of other quarterbacks going later in drafts that will be more than adequate. He finished the year throwing for 5,097 yards with 50 touchdowns and only 12 interceptions and added 272 rushing yards with 2 touchdowns, he is no doubt the consensus number one coming into this year but regression is coming though. As of now Tyreek Hill will not be missing any time, but this saga seems far from over. There is also no Kareem Hunt this year and Damien Williams needs to prove that he can handle a full workload, as he is now the featured back. It is simply not possible for Mahomes to repeat these numbers given all the factors the Chiefs are going through. At his current ADP, you should be waiting on a quarterback and grab someone like Philip Rivers (9.05), Jared Goff (9.08) even Tom Brady who is going way later than he should at 10.08. Any one of these quarterbacks is capable of putting up QB1 numbers and could be had for much less, much later in drafts.

Adam Thielen, WR, Minnesota

Thielen is a great story, but he is being drafted way too high in fantasy leagues. With an ADP of 3.09 he is going higher than some premium wideouts that will outperform him such as Amari Cooper (3.10), Stefon Diggs (4.05) and Julian Edelman (4.08). There were 7 games last year where Thielen saw single-digit targets and only caught double-digit receptions 3 times. During weeks 13-16, he failed to catch more than 5 balls in any of those games. In the same period he failed to record 100 yards or score a touchdown. Bet you were thrilled you started him for your fantasy playoff games. A one-off some might say, but look at 2017 and you will find the same thing, weeks 14-16 were single-digit targets under 100 yards and no touchdowns. Also not a single week of double-digit receptions. The consistency is simply not there to warrant a third round pick on him.

Josh Jacobs, RB, Oakland

Jacobs is a dynamic rookie who can make all the plays, but at the end of the day is still a rookie. The NFL is different than NCAA football and drafting this guy at his ADP of 3.09, is crazy. You shouldn’t be paying a premium price for a guy who is probably not even a bellcow running back. He played in a timeshare at Alabama and will most likely be splitting reps with Jalen Richard (with Doug Martin also still on the depth chart). He is the most talented back on the roster, but in the third round there are still running backs out there that will get a much bigger workload. In the early rounds of the draft, you are looking for guys that are established within the league and are not in a timeshare situation. Instead put these guys on your list, Kerryon Johnson (3.08), Mark Ingram (4.01) and Chris Carson (4.08). If your thinking about Jacobs, just remember the hype Ronald Jones got last year and how that worked out.

About Nick Lemma

Being from New York Nick is loud and persistent. Known as the Hot-Headed Italian within his circle, his opinions are bold with facts and stats to back them up. While playing across multiple leagues and serving as commissioner of his hometown league for the past 12 years, he’s been consumed by football. Being a seasoned player, he’s had success in various formats and league setups. When he’s not reading or writing about football he can be found spending time with his wife and son.