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THE PROGNOSTICATOR: Week 12

Welcome my fantasy brethren to another edition of The Prognosticator, may it give thanks. For those in the US, Happy Thanksgiving to all of you. For those not in the US but celebrate Thanksgiving anyway, same to you! Enjoy the games!
Passing Rushing
Team Score Team Score
BUF 273 CHI 154
CIN 269 NYG 147
KC 266 BUF 144
LAC 255 PHI 139
MIA 252 MIA 138
TB 242 BAL 136
WAS 238 DAL 136
SEA 238 CLE 134
JAX 236 ATL 131
NE 235 SF 130
LVR 232 ARI 129
LAR 230 NYJ 126
DET 227 LVR 124
IND 225 SEA 124
DEN 222 TEN 123
ARI 222 GB 122
NO 220 DEN 120
BAL 218 DET 120
HOU 216 WAS 120
SF 215 NE 119
MIN 212 JAX 113
PHI 211 CAR 113
DAL 211 PIT 111
CLE 210 MIN 109
GB 200 HOU 105
PIT 199 KC 105
NYJ 199 TB 103
TEN 188 LAC 101
CAR 181 IND 101
ATL 180 NO 100
NYG 176 CIN 89
CHI 164 LAR 88

How to read the table: The table shows how a team will do Passing and Rushing in the upcoming week of the NFL. Red is HOT, Yellow is WARM, White is NORMAL, Light Blue is COLD and Dark Blue is FREEZING COLD. Play players from teams that are Red and Yellow, avoid players from teams that are Light or Dark Blue and expect average days from teams that are White.

All times are Eastern

Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions – Thursday 12:30pm
FANTASY
The opening Thanksgiving Day game is going to be a fun one. Detroit will make this a game but there will never be a question just which team is going to win. While Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jamaal Williams in particular make solid fantasy starts, it’s all those Buffalo Bills that will peak against a very soft Detroit defense. Play your usual suspects from the Buffaloes as you’ll be very pleased that you did. I’m also going to use this space to make a plea to the Buffalo coaching staff. Instead of Isaiah McKenzie in the slot, put Khalil Shakir there before the playoffs start, he makes for a much nicer target for Josh Allen.

 

WAGERING
Buffalo opened as -9.5 point favorites and remain there. It’s such a big line and yes, the Detroit defense just may give up all those points but the move here is to take the points and Detroit at home on Thanksgiving. While Buffalo is a great team, they have misfired quite a bit the last few weeks and Detroit has been playing better than well, really anyone has given them credit for. Folks like the OVER in this as the total opened at 52 but now stands at 54.5 points. It has been pushed up primarily because the expectation is that Buffalo will score twice every possession going against the soft Detroit defense but that won’t quite come to pass. It’s the UNDER that now looks attractive as the lines makers had it right to start with.

 

Favorite: Buffalo Bills by 9.5
Prediction: Buffalo Bills 27 – Detroit Lions 24
Category Advantage
Rushing
Passing
Offense
Interceptions
Fumbles
Turnovers

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys – Thursday 4:30pm
FANTASY
While Dak Prescott most certainly did have a terrific game last week, this Thursday against the N.Y. Giants will be a different game. Both teams will want to establish their run game early so expect a lot of Saquon Barkley and Tony Pollard with Ezekiel Elliott getting involved near the goal line. You play CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz of course, but the rest won’t see a lot of targets. I have been a fan of Darius Slayton in fantasy the last few weeks but this is a difficult week for him as the Dallas defense will be able to dial up some pressure which will pressure Daniel Jones relentlessly.

 

WAGERING
The bettors love their Cowboys as the line opened at -7.5 points, which attracted a pile of money on Dallas which has moved that line to -10 points. Smart move bettors. The line is now right which doesn’t leave a lot of opportunity left to wager on this game. The OVER has been attracting some dollars too as it opened at 43.5 points and now sits at 45.5 points. Either way, the line is right here too as this game total should be right around both numbers so unfortunately, there just isn’t anything worth wagering on in this the second game of the Thanksgiving slate.

 

Favorite: Dallas Cowboys by 9.5
Prediction: Dallas Cowboys 27 – New York Giants 17
Category Advantage
Rushing
Passing
Offense
Interceptions
Fumbles
Turnovers

New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings – Thursday 8:20pm
FANTASY
What a very odd game this turns into. Most pundits will expect New England to run the ball a lot and win it with their defense while Minnesota throws the ball all over the stadium and also adds a healthy dose of Dalvin Cook. You may want to take a seat for this. One thing will be right in the traditionalists approach to forecasting this game, the New England defense will be ferocious here. Minnesota will struggle so much to try and convert third downs that it will appear early on as if they may not. After this game, the one message that most are going to take away from this game, is to not play any of your fantasy players that are going against New England as Minnesota will struggle mightily here. So New England on offense just counters with their impressive run game, right? Wrong. It’s a Mac Jones game and instead of Minnesota slinging the ball all over the field, it will be New England as Mac Jones opens up the throttle. Expect New England to pick apart the one area that Minnesota is weakest, their secondary. The final twist in this very odd game will be somehow, even though statistically for fantasy Minnesota won’t be good, by some stroke of a miracle the Vikings find a way to come out the winners in this very backwards game indeed.

 

WAGERING
Minnesota opened as -3.5 point favorites but that has been bet down to -2.5 point favorites now. The line is right and it’s really not something you want to mess around with. The total opened at 43 which attracted a little bit on the UNDER as it stands at 42.5 points now. I hate to say it again but that line is right too. If push came to shove it’s the OVER that is the proper direction to take but there’s really no meat on the bone as it sits. So like the Dallas/N.Y. Giants lines, there just isn’t anything worth placing in this game unless we see some good movement from some of these lines.

 

Favorite: Minnesota Vikings by 2.5
Prediction: Minnesota Vikings 23 – New England Patriots 21
Category Advantage
Rushing
Passing
Offense
Interceptions
Fumbles
Turnovers

About Tony Holm

Founder and President of FantasySharks.com. Five-time nominee for the Fantasy Sports Writers Association's Hall of Fame. Started publishing fantasy content on the web in 1993 and hasn't stopped yet.