Thursday - Jan 28, 2021
Home / Commentary / RED LIGHT, GREEN LIGHT: Week 10


Welcome back for the Week 10 edition of “Red Light, Green Light”, your matchup guide for all of this weekend’s (and Monday’s) NFL contests. While this piece is not intended to be solely a start/bench list, it can be used for some of those decisions as well.

In each NFL Week 10 game profile below, players mentioned in the green light sections have a great matchup, and can be counted on as rock solid options for the week. Players mentioned in the yellow light sections have just an okay matchup and/or usage concerns, meaning they are passable fantasy options but don’t expect them to set the world on fire. Players in the red light sections have serious concerns, and need to have expectations lowered for the week, and/or should be avoided if possible. Remember, seeing your stud listed in the yellow or red light section isn’t necessarily grounds to bench them, but more of an indication they may not be the guy(s) carrying your team to victory this week.

Note: Fantasy points allowed statistics are based off of the Fantasy Sharks default PPR scoring system.

Bye Week Teams: Baltimore, Denver, Houston, Minnesota

New Orleans Saints at Cincinnati Bengals

Tale of the Tape – Ranks for Most 2018 Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game
Position Saints Bengals
Quarterback 2nd 4th
Running Back 25th 5th
Wide Receiver 1st 5th
Tight End 27th 3rd
Defense/Special Teams 31st 18th
Vegas Line: Saints -5.5
Vegas Over/Under: 54
  • Drew Brees – Interesting dichotomy with Brees as he’s posted 346 passing yards or more in four of 8 games this season, while putting up 243 or fewer in the rest. This should be a boom week for Brees as the Bengals allow the most passing yards per contest.
  • Michael Thomas – Comes off a career-high 212 receiving yards against the Rams last week. In fact, Thomas owns two of the top three single game receiving performances of 2018 (the other being his 180 yard effort in Week 1).
  • Alvin Kamara – All he does is score. Kamara is one touchdown away from matching the 13 he scored last season as a rookie, and we’re only at Week 10.
  • Tyler Boyd – Takes over as the top option with A.J. Green (toe) on the shelf. Assuming Boyd stays in the slot, he should be able to avoid CB Marshon Lattimore on the perimeter and do some damage against a Saints defense that has allowed the most receiving yards and touchdowns to opposing wideouts.
  • Mark Ingram – Settled in as more of a true complimentary option to Kamara as opposed to the co-contributor he was last season. Given the Bengals’ woes in rush defense (7th-worst in the NFL), Ingram should find more room to run than in recent weeks.
  • Ben Watson – If you streamed Watson last week and still need tight end help, feel free to hang on to him for one more go. The Bengals allow 75.3 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends, which is third-most in the NFL.
  • Saints D/ST – Worth a stab if you’re desperate given the Bengals are missing their best playmaker.
  • Andy Dalton – Losing A.J. Green hurts, though Dalton is still on the streaming radar against the NFL’s second-worst pass defense.
  • Joe Mixon – The Saints defense continues to hold down the fort at the top of the League leaderboard in terms of rushing yards allowed per game. Mixon’s talents as a receiver should keep him fantasy relevant this week though.
  • Dez Bryant – I know its exciting to see Bryant scooped up by a team with such an explosive offense like the Saints, but how much of an immediate impact can Bryant really make having not played a down of professional football since Week 17 of last season?
  • Tre’Quan Smith – Still hasn’t caught more than three balls in a game despite playing at least 65 percent of the Saints’ offensive snaps in each of the last four games.
  • A.J. Green (toe) – In case you missed it, Green is out this week and possibly longer.
  • C.J. Uzomah – Should see a few more targets with Green absent, though the Saints haven’t allowed an opposing tight end to put up more than 50 receiving yards against them since Week 1.
  • Giovani Bernard – Set to return after missing the Bengals’ last four games due to a knee injury, and figures to have a minimal role behind Joe Mixon.
  • John Ross/Josh Malone – Ross returns from a two game absence due to a groin injury, but only has a seven catches on the season. Malone is a second-year fourth-round pick out of Tennessee who should receive a bump in playing time as well.

Atlanta Falcons at Cleveland Browns

Tale of the Tape – Ranks for Most 2018 Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game
Position Falcons Browns
Quarterback 3rd 15th
Running Back 3rd 4th
Wide Receiver 3rd 9th
Tight End 12th 9th
Defense/Special Teams 29th 5th
Vegas Line: Falcons -4.5
Vegas Over/Under: 
  • Julio Jones – In shot head ’round the NFL last Sunday, Jones scored his first touchdown since Week 11 of the 2017 season. Browns standout rookie CB Denzel Ward (hip) is ailing, so this solid matchup for Jones could get even better.
  • Tevin Coleman – Comes off his best game of the season last Sunday (156 total yards and two touchdowns), while the Browns have allowed eight running back scores over the last month.
  • Jarvis Landry – Has just one game with more than 69 receiving yards since Week 3. However, as the top banana in the Browns’ pass game, there’s opportunity aplenty for a big game against a Falcons defense that has allowed an opposing wideout to score at least once in each of their past five contests.
  • Duke Johnson – It’s too early to tell if the 9 targets that came Johnson’s way last Sunday are the new norm or not, but this matchup is too good to ignore. The Falcons have allowed the most targets/receptions to opposing running backs, meaning Johnson’s skill set should be on full display.
  • Matt Ryan – On the road? Outdoors? No problem for Matt Ryan last week, as he smoked the Redskins for 350 passing yards and four touchdowns last Sunday. This isn’t an easy matchup for Ryan, however, as the Browns have only allowed three QB1 performances all season.
  • Austin Hooper – Comes off a quiet two week stretch (with a bye sandwiched in between) where he’s put up just 6-90-0. Look for a moderate rebound as the Browns have allowed the second-most tight end targets.
  • Ito Smith – Has maintained at least a 41 percent snap share and touched the ball 9 times or more in each of his last three contest. The Browns’ are have a bottom-six rush defense, so Smith should be successful even with limited touches.
  • Nick Chubb – Teammate Duke Johnson’s huge receiving output last week overshadowed another solid effort on the ground from Chubb (90 total yards and a score on 23 touches). The Falcons are more of a neutral matchup from a rushing standpoint, though with carry counts of 18, 18, and 22 the past three weeks, it’s clear the Browns are intent on feeding their rookie second-round pick.
  • Baker Mayfield – Will look to build on his 297 yard/two touchdown performance (and career high 69.4 percent completion percentage for a game he started). The Falcons have a poor pass defense, which should result in garbage time being kind to Mayfield if it comes to that.
  • David Njoku – Continues to churn out 50-60 yard performances (except for Week 8’s surprise bagel). The Falcons haven’t been a matchup to target opposing tight ends against, but not one to run away from either.
  • Calvin Ridley – Got back into the end zone last Sunday after going scoreless in his prior three contests. Ridley has been boom/bust so far this season, and Week 10 could be a bust week. Cleveland is credited with just 58 receiving yards allowed per game per Football Outsiders, with just one touchdown allowed .
  • Mohamed Sanu (hip) – Unlike Ridley, Sanu is still showing up on the Falcons’ injury reports, and has caught just 8 balls over the last three weeks.
  • Antonio Callaway – His 51 receiving yards last week were the highest since Week 4. However, Rashard Higgins‘ return to the lineup cuts down on Callaway’s opportunities.

Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers

Tale of the Tape – Ranks for Most 2018 Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game
Position Dolphins Packers
Quarterback 21st 16th
Running Back 6th 18th
Wide Receiver 25th 8th
Tight End 13th 28th
Defense/Special Teams 10th 22nd
Vegas Line: Packers -10
Vegas Over/Under: 
  • Jimmy Graham – The Dolphins have allowed three tight end scores over the last four weeks.
  • Aaron Jones – So far only the Lions are allowing more running back rushing yards per game than Miami. So long as there are no punitive repercussions for Jones’ costly fumble last Sunday night, he could be in for his long overdue 2018 breakout game.
  • Aaron Rodgers – Green Bay enters this matchup as heavy favorites, which would seem like a great opportunity to lean on the run game. Miami allows just the 7th-fewest passing yards per game.
  • Davante Adams – Was held to 6-40-1 by Patriots CB Stephon Gilmore last Sunday, and has another tough, but not insurmountable matchup with the Dolphins’ Xavien Howard. Always a good bet for a touchdown, Adams is currently second in the NFL with 2.1 targets inside the 21-yard line per game.
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling – Has now played the second-most snaps among Packers’ wideouts in each of his past four contests. With Geronimo Allison (groin) being placed on injured reserve, the Packers’ no. 2 wideout job should be Valdes-Scantling’s for the taking.
  • Packers D/ST – Playing at home and heavily favored is a good place to be when facing a Brock Osweiler-led offense.
  • Kenyan Drake/Frank Gore – They essentially split snaps last week, though Gore ended up out-touching Drake 21-7. Game script should favor Drake and his pass-catching skill, but the coaching staff seems to have a strange affinity for the 35-year old veteran.
  • DeVante Parker – Just when you thought it was safe to trust Parker as a volume option on Week 9, he goes and lays an egg (1-8-0 on two targets). Still Parker did lead the Dolphins wideout corps in snaps last week, and with garbage time a likely factor in this contest, he should see more opportunities than he did against the Jets.
  • Danny Amendola – Has caught 24 balls over the past four weeks as the Dolphins have run out of healthy bodies for their receiving corps.
  • Randall Cobb – Maybe his hamstring is still bothering him, or Cobb is just losing his mojo. In any case, Cobb hasn’t surpassed 40 receiving yards in a game since Week 1, and appears to be no better than the Packers’ no. 3 wideout.
  • Jamaal Williams – Perhaps he’ll get more run if this game turns into a blowout. Williams hasn’t been given double-digit carries since Week 4.
  • Kenny Stills – Managed to play last Sunday after missing Week 8 with a groin injury,  and caught one pass for 19 yards. Stills has just three catches over his last three games played, and appears to be behind Amendola and Parker at the moment.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts

Tale of the Tape – Ranks for Most 2018 Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game
Position Jaguars Colts
Quarterback 29th 12th
Running Back 26th 13th
Wide Receiver 31st 22nd
Tight End 25th 8th
Defense/Special Teams 6th 24th
Vegas Line: Colts -3
Vegas Over/Under: 
  • None of note
  • Andrew Luck – The QB6 by average fantasy points per game, Luck’s shoulder issue feels like eons ago. The Jaguars are among the NFL’s best at limiting opposing quarterback’s, however.
  • Marlon Mack – Went ballistic with 308 total yards and four scores across Weeks 7 and 8 against two of the NFL’s worst defenses at containing opposing running backs (Buffalo and Oakland). Jacksonville is a bit tougher, but they have allowed at least 87 rushing yards and one score to an opposing running back in three of their last four games played.
  • Colts D/ST – The Jaguars are tied for fourth in the NFL with 18 giveaways, and it’s not a given their bottom-10 scoring offense will have completely regrouped following the bye week.
  • Leonard Fournette – Returned to full practice this week, though it’s unclear how much of a workload he’ll be given right away after having only really played about two halves of football this season.
  • Donte Moncrief/Dede Westbrook – Both finished Week 8 as the Jaguars’ snap leaders at wideout.  Moncrief remains the Jaguars’ top downfield threat, averaging 79.8 air yards per contest, while Westbrook has emerged as the top underneath option.
  • Blake Bortles – With Fournette back in tow to stablilze the Jags’ run game, Bortles should regain some standing as a competent streaming option. The Colts are allowing the 10th-most passing yards per contest.
  • T.Y. Hilton – Likely to draw the most attention from CB Jalen Ramsey. Hilton has just five catches for 59 yards in two games since returning from a hamstring injury.
  • Carlos Hyde/T.J. Yeldon – Hyde will likely take a backseat to Fournette in the run game, while Yeldon should still have some value as a pass catcher. The fantasy value of these two will be determined by how well Fournette responds to getting back into game action, and right now the starter appears all-systems go.
  • Jaguars D/ST – The Colts offense is humming right now, while the Jaguars have allowed an average of 28.5 points against over their last four games played.

About Will Weiler

An NFL Red Zone addict and all-around data nerd, I've been obsessed with the NFL and stats ever since I started playing the virtual pigskin game in 2005.