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RED LIGHT, GREEN LIGHT: Week 13

Welcome back for the Week 13 edition of “Red Light, Green Light”, your matchup guide for all of this weekend’s NFL contests. While the information conveyed below piece is not intended to be solely a start/bench list, it can be used to evaluate those decisions as well.

In each NFL Week 13 game profile below, players mentioned in the green light sections have a great matchup, and can be counted on as rock solid options. Players mentioned in the yellow light sections have just an okay matchup and/or usage concerns, meaning they are passable fantasy options but don’t expect them to set the world on fire. Players in the red light sections have serious matchup/usage concerns, require lowered expectations lowered for the week, and/or should be avoided if possible. Remember, seeing your stud listed in the yellow or red light section isn’t necessarily grounds to bench them, but more of an indication they may not be the guy(s) carrying your team to victory.

Note: Fantasy points allowed statistics are based off of the Fantasy Sharks default PPR scoring system. Point Spreads and Over/Unders are based off the Fantasy Sharks consensus analysis.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

Tale of the Tape – Ranks for Most 2019 Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game
Position Titans Colts
Quarterback 18th 21st
Running Back 13th 25th
Wide Receiver 18th 12th
Tight End 12th 14th
Defense/Special Teams 11th 23rd
Vegas Line: Colts -2.5
Vegas Over/Under: 43.5
green-light
  • Jack Doyle – Gets the Colts’ TE1 role all to himself with Eric Ebron (ankle, IR) done for the season. Doyle put up a 8-690-4 season back in 2017 with no Ebron and Jacoby Brissett as his starting quarterback.
yellow-light
  • Ryan Tannehill – Over the Titans’ last four games, Tannehill’s fantasy finishes are QB10, QB7, QB10, and QB2. The Colts are giving up an average of just 248 passing yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns per game, though two quarter backs have gone for 290+ and 2 against them over the past two games.
  • A.J. Brown – We’ve seen this song and  dance before where Brown has a huge game only to follow it up with a dud. However, this is a great matchup for the rookie, as the Colts have allowed 7 different wideouts to go for 100+ receiving yards this season.
  • T.Y. Hilton (calf) – Wasn’t completely healthy in Week 12, and it showed, as Hilton went just 3-18-0 on 6 targets with a pair of ugly drops. Hilton looks to be in a better place than he was a week ago, so expect a stronger performance here.
  • Jonathan Williams – Was fed 29 touches in his first NFL start (Week 12), and responded with 121 total yards and a score. If Williams’ usage the past two weeks tells us anything, he’ll remain the backfield focal point until Marlon Mack (hand) returns.
red-light
  • Derrick Henry (hamstring) – Smoking hot with 347 rushing yards and four touchdowns over his last four games, but did pop up on the Titans injury report this week. The Colts have allowed zero 100-yard rushers this season (the highest single-game rushing total a running back has put up against them is 88 yards).
  • Jonnu Smith – Even now that Delanie Walker (ankle, IR) is out for the season, Smith has gone just 7-48-0 across the Titans last three games while filling in as the Titans’ TE1.

New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals

Tale of the Tape – Ranks for Most 2019 Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game
Position Jets Bengals
Quarterback 16th 5th
Running Back 11th 7th
Wide Receiver 6th 23rd
Tight End 29th 18th
Defense/Special Teams 5th 4th
Vegas Line: Jets -3.5
Vegas Over/Under: 40.5
green-light
  • Tyler Boyd – Came back from the dead in Week 12 with 5-101-1 on 9 targets, and now gets a boost with Andy Dalton re-installed as the Bengals’ starting quarterback.
  • Sam Darnold – Taking full advantage of the cupcake matchups that keep getting thrown his way (274.5 passing yards per game with 10 total touchdowns over Darnold’s last four games played).
  • Le’Veon Bell – The lack of touchdowns isn’t ideal, but Bell continues to chug along with 84.1 total yards per contest. Bell’s 65 targets rank 7th-most among NFL running backs.
yellow-light
  • Andy Dalton – While he’s a turnover machine (11 in 8 games played), Dalton had averaged 281.5 passing yards per game over 8 starts.
  • Ryan Griffin – All five of his touchdowns have come in the Jets’ last 7 games. Cincinnati allows the 10th-most receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends.
  • Robby Anderson – Put up just his third weekly performance of more than 80 yards last Sunday (4-86-1 to be exact). The Bengals are third in the NFL with 49 pass plays of 20+ yards allowed.
  • Jamison Crowder – Likely would have been more involved in Week 12 (just 2-18-0 on four targets for Crowder) had the game not been a blowout in the Jets favor. The emergence of Griffin and Demaryius Thomas certainly cap Crowder’s upside though.
red-light
  • Joe Mixon – Running backs primarily do their damage to the Jets via the air, and Mixon is averaging just 2.8 targets per game.

Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers

Tale of the Tape – Ranks for Most 2019 Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game
Position Redskins Panthers
Quarterback 14th 22nd
Running Back 8th 4th
Wide Receiver 19th 5th
Tight End 10th 25th
Defense/Special Teams 1st 7th
Vegas Line: Panthers -10
Vegas Over/Under: 40
green-light
  • Christian McCaffrey – On pace to finish the season with just shy of 2,500 total yards. The Redskins defense is going to get trampled.
  • Panthers D/ST – This unit ranks second in sacks (41), and should add generously to that total against Washington’s hot mess of an offense.
yellow-light
  • D.J. Moore – Averaging 110.5 receiving yards per game over the Panthers last four, and finally got hit with some positive touchdown regression by scoring twice in Week 12. As hot as Moore his, the spread tilted so heavily in the favor of Carolina points to this contest being McCaffrey-centric.
  • Greg Olsen – Has gone for at least 40 receiving yards in five of the Panthers last six contests, but still looking for touchdown number three on the year. Washington has allowed the 9th-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends.
  • Terry McLaurin – Went 5-72-0 on 12 targets last Sunday, as the state of Washington’s pass catching corps leaves QB Dwayne Haskins has little choice but to continue heaving the ball downfield to his former college teammate.
red-light
  • Curtis Samuel – This could easily be the week Samuel finally pops a big play or two, but he’s been held to four catches or less in every game since Week 3.
  • Redskins Running Backs – The committee between Adrian Peterson and Derrius Guice appears here to stay, and Chris Thompson (toe) looks ready to return this week and siphon his usual allotment of passing game work.

San Francisco 49ers at Baltimore Ravens

Tale of the Tape – Ranks for Most 2019 Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game
Position 49ers Ravens
Quarterback 31st 27th
Running Back 32nd 26th
Wide Receiver 26th 13th
Tight End 31st 28th
Defense/Special Teams 26th 32nd
Vegas Line: Ravens -4.5
Vegas Over/Under: 46
green-light
  • None of note.
yellow-light
  • Lamar Jackson – Not giving Jackson the green light feels wrong considering what he’s accomplished since the Ravens’ Week 8 bye (777 passing yards, 300 rushing yards, and 16 total touchdowns), but San Francisco is the young quarterback’s toughest test of the season outside of perhaps the Patriots back in Week 9.
  • Mark Ingram – Backfields attached to highly mobile quarterbacks have given the 49ers problems. Only two running backs have scored more than Ingram’s 12 total touchdowns.
  • Ravens D/ST – While the 49ers are the NFL’s second-highest scoring team (30.2 points per game), they are flying cross-country for a 1pm EST kickoff, and may not be at their sharpest.
red-light
  • 49ers Wide Receivers – Both Deebo Samuel (shoulder) and Emmanuel Sanders (ribs) are banged up, and Baltimore’s defense has continued to largely shut down opposing wideout corps since the team’s bye week.
  • Tevin Coleman – Has been held to 40 rushing yards or less over the 49ers last four games, with just one touchdown over that span. Baltimore has allowed the 5th-fewest rushing yards to opposing running backs, and Coleman will likely go back to sharing the 49ers’ backfield with Matt Breida (ankle), who is on track to return.
  • Jimmy Garoppolo – Quietly tied for fourth in touchdown passes this season (20), Garoppolo may have a tough time adding to that total against a Ravens defense allowing less than one per game.
  • 49ers D/ST – Will have their hands full with the NFL’s highest scoring team. Baltimore has impressively put up at least 41 points in each of their last three games played.
  • Ravens Wide Receivers – Marquise Brown is the only providing consistent fantasy production, though he continues to see limited snaps as its possible the team is still managing his ankle injury. Willie Snead caught two touchdown passes last Monday night, though has been thoroughly uninvolved offensively for most of the year. Seth Roberts, for some reason, was the Ravens’ Week 12 snap leader of the group.
  • Mark Andrews – The 49ers allow a paltry 20.6 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends, least in the NFL.

About Will Weiler

An NFL Red Zone addict and all-around data nerd, I've been obsessed with the NFL and stats ever since I started playing the virtual pigskin game in 2005.