Sunday - Jan 17, 2021

Home / Commentary / RED LIGHT, GREEN LIGHT: Week 14


Welcome to the Week 14 edition of “Red Light, Green Light,” a matchup guide for all of this weekend’s NFL contests (and Monday night).

In each NFL Week 14 game profile below, I will choose a total of 3 players to highlight as green, yellow or red light options.

green-light Green Light: Players who have a great matchup. These guys are rock solid fantasy options, and can be counted on as a strong source of fantasy production.
yellow-light Yellow Light: Players with just an OK matchup and/or usage concerns. These guys are passable fantasy options but don’t expect them to set the world on fire.
red-light Red Light: Players with serious matchup/usage concerns, thus requiring lowered expectations lowered for the week, and/or should just be avoided altogether if possible.

Remember, seeing your stud listed in the yellow or red light section isn’t necessarily grounds to bench them, but more of an indication they may not carry your team to victory.

As always, the information conveyed below is not intended to be solely a start/bench list, but can be used to evaluate those decisions as well.

Note: Fantasy points allowed statistics are based off of the Fantasy Sharks default points per reception (PPR) scoring system. Point Spreads and Over/Unders are based off the Fantasy Sharks consensus analysis.

Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tale of the Tape – Ranks for Most 2020 Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game
Position Vikings Buccaneers
Quarterback 16th 11th
Running Back 18th 27th
Wide Receiver 3rd 9th
Tight End 18th 10th
Defense/Special Teams 14th 27th
Vegas Line: Buccaneers -6.5
Vegas Over/Under: 52

green-light Green Light – Chris Godwin (WR, Tampa Bay)

The Bucs’ receiver had some pins taken out of his previously broken finger earlier in the week, and appears trending toward being as healthy as he’s been in a long tine. Fellow Bucs’ wideout Mike Evans (hamstring) is hobbled again, so Godwin is likely Tom Brady‘s focal point against the Vikings’ inexperienced secondary.

yellow-light Yellow Light – Irv Smith Jr. (TE, Minnesota)

Veteran Kyle Rudolph (foot) is trending towards is sitting this week, while Smith (groin) returned to practice and looks on track to play. The athletic second-year tight end figures to slide in behind Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson as Kirk Cousins‘ third option in the pass game this week.

red-light Red Light – Dalvin Cook (RB, Minnesota)

Cook’s days of feasting on cupcake rush defenses appears over, as he’s got a brutal stretch of matchups for the fantasy playoffs. First up is Tampa Bay who allow a paltry 51.2 rushing yards per game to opposing backfields.

Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants

Tale of the Tape – Ranks for Most 2020 Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game
Position Cardinals Giants
Quarterback 12th 30th
Running Back 16th 11th
Wide Receiver 11th 20th
Tight End 25th 24th
Defense/Special Teams 21st 7th
Vegas Line: Cardinals -2.5
Vegas Over/Under: 45

green-light Green Light – Kenyan Drake (RB, Cardinals)

Drake has four touchdowns across four games since returning from injury in Week 10, as the Cardinals seem to be relying on him more down near the goal line to punch in short scores. The veteran’s pass game usage has ticked up also, as Drake’s 12 targets over that same aforementioned span are more than what he saw between Weeks 1 and 7.

yellow-light Yellow Light – Sterling Shepard (WR, New York Giants)

The Giants’ top receiver will be happy to have Daniel Jones (hamstring) back under center. Shepard has been targeted no fewer than 6 times in any game he’s started and finished this season.

red-light Red Light – Kyler Murray (QB, Arizona)

Murray faces a Giants defense that has not allowed a multi-touchdown passer since Week 8, and given up in total just 107 rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks. Murray has also failed to eclipse 173 passing yards in either game since injuring his throwing shoulder in Week 11.

Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins

Tale of the Tape – Ranks for Most 2020 Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game
Position Chiefs Dolphins
Quarterback 19th 24th
Running Back 13th 21st
Wide Receiver 30th 15th
Tight End 12th 27th
Defense/Special Teams 31st 13th
Vegas Line: Chiefs -7.5
Vegas Over/Under: 49

green-light Green Light – Mike Gesicki (TE, Miami)

The hot-and-cold tight end put up his second-best fantasy performance of the season last Sunday (9-88-1), and it surprisingly came without Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing him the ball. Miami is starved for pass catchers outside of DeVante Parker to step up, so Gesicki is set up well for an encore that figure to see the Dolphins throwing plenty.

yellow-light Yellow Light – Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Relegated to emergency backup after missing several days of practice due to an unspecified illness last week, Edwards-Helaire did not see the field in the Chiefs win over the Broncos. Le’Veon Bell continues run like he’s carrying a safe on his back, so the rookie’s starting job should be considered safe now that he’s over his ailment.

red-light Red Light – (WR, DeVante Parker)

Parker’s best performance of the season with Tua Tagovailoa playing a full game is just 6-64-0 which came in Week 9. Kansas City has allowed just the second-fewest receiving yards to opposing wideouts, so expect most of Tua’s passes to go elsewhere.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Tale of the Tape – Ranks for Most 2020 Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game
Position Titans Jaguars
Quarterback 5th 4th
Running Back 9th 4th
Wide Receiver 10th 4th
Tight End 6th 11th
Defense/Special Teams 32nd 5th
Vegas Line: Jaguars -7.5
Vegas Over/Under: 53.5

green-light Green Light – Corey Davis (WR, Tennessee)

Davis may end up the Titans’ no. 1 receiver this week if A.J. Brown (ankle) cannot go. The 25-year old looks to be experiencing his true breakout after teasing fantasy managers in 2018. Jacksonville has allowed the 6th-most receiving yards to opposing wideouts.

yellow-light Yellow Light – D.J. Chark (WR, Jacksonville)

Though he led all Jacksonville receivers by a wide margin with a 87 percent snap share last week, Chark only reeled in two of 7 Mike Glennon targets, as the two have only played one game together. Expect the duo’s chemistry to improve against the Titans’ woeful secondary.

red-light Red Light – Titans D/ST

Ordinarily, opposing D/STs thrive against Jacksonville, but the Titans have been mediocre-to-bad in just about every defensive metric. With Jacksonville having a not-to-shabby 22.5 implied team point this week, it is best to look elsewhere.

About Will Weiler

An NFL Red Zone addict and all-around data nerd, I've been obsessed with the NFL and stats ever since I started playing the virtual pigskin game in 2005.