Monday - Mar 8, 2021

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FANTASY FORECAST: The Curse of 325

As a writer, you always want to be known for something uniquely your own. For me, when I finally decide to hang up my keyboard (probably really soon), I’d like to think that I’ll be remembered for some of the things I helped kick off: actual Consistency Rankings, relative position value (The Best Damn Draft Theory), and perhaps my most famous gimmick: the Curse of 370.

Nothing ever stays the same, however. As the game has evolved, the days of running backs getting anywhere near 370 touches a season are just not happening anymore, so I lowered the threshold that could also help owners avoid drafting a bust runner. Here are the results when I dropped the threshold to 325 touches a season (stats from 2008-18):

Further breaking down the numbers, we see the following:

So, not only is a runner who logs 325-plus touches six times more likely to decline the following season, he’ll also produce a decline 1.5 times as steep as the rare runner who posts an increase. Given this history, is it really worth the risk to try and select the one in six runners who will buck the trend?

Note: Of the four runners I advised my readers to devalue in 2018, all four — Kareem Hunt, Melvin Gordon, Todd Gurley, LeSean McCoy — declined, with an average drop in performance of 21 percent!

About John Georgopoulos

John T. Georgopoulos is a 24-year veteran of fantasy sports journalism. John’s Fantasy Forecast series has won the prestigious Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) award for Best Series, and he’s been nominated as an FSWA Award finalist on nine occasions. You can also listen to and watch all his various shows at The Riot.