Saturday - Jan 23, 2021

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FANTASY FORECAST: Consistency 2019

One of the most difficult tasks in head-to-head fantasy leagues is trying to determine who the “hot” and “cold” players will be in any given week. You can’t use historical or seasonal averages because, well … by their very definition, averages do not tell you how the average was achieved.

Years ago, I searched for a statistical methodology to quantify player consistency. Mind you, I wasn’t looking for “Drew Brees averages four 400-yard games a season” or “A.J. Green is an up-and-down player” statements, because they are worthless when filling out weekly lineups — and are usually the province of hack fantasy writers who have bought authoritative-sounding domain names.

What I came up with is now a critical component of our Best Damn Draft Method 2019, the industry innovation known as Consistency Rankings (CR). To help illustrate the value of the CR, consider the following hypothetical situation of two quarterbacks over a four-week period:

Who’s the quarterback you’d want on your fantasy team? Both Chucker and Thrower have amassed 1,000 total passing yards; both average 250 yards a game. But here’s where the CR becomes important: Thrower’s CR weighs in at 129.09; Chucker’s would be 21.98. The CR would accurately tell us that Chucker is the steadier performer (the lower the CR, the steadier the player).

So what is the CR, and how is it calculated?

The CR is the degree to which a set of data points varies. For those who are mathematically inclined, the CR is a “coefficient of variance”:

For those of you who just want to get to the bottom line, trust me when I say that the math works. I am, after all, a descendant of Archimedes and Aristotle.

The larger the CR is, the more inconsistent the player; the smaller the CR the more consistent the player.

About John Georgopoulos

John T. Georgopoulos is a 24-year veteran of fantasy sports journalism. John’s Fantasy Forecast series has won the prestigious Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) award for Best Series, and he’s been nominated as an FSWA Award finalist on nine occasions. You can also listen to and watch all his various shows at The Riot.