I feel like Derek Carr ($6,300) is still an under-the-radar quarterback despite having a price that places him in the top 10 of quarterbacks this week. Carr has been on fire since coming out his bye four weeks ago. He has had at least 22 DraftKings points, averaged more than three touchdowns a game, and crossed the 300-plus passing yard bonus three times. He should have no problem continuing his hot streak against Detroit this week. Detroit is the third-easiest team for quarterback to go against, with the lowest a quarterback has scored being 15.5 DraftKings points. I expect this game to be a shootout and Carr to be in passing mode all game.
If a quarterback scores more than 25 DraftKings points there is a greater than 50 percent chance the quarterback on the other team scores at least 20 DraftKings points. That means good things for Matthew Stafford ($5,400), who will be facing the easiest defense he’s seen all year. The Detroit run game is near the bottom of the league and the only way for the team to move the ball is through the air, which is a good recipe for a passing quarterbacks. Oakland has allowed two-or-more touchdown passes in all but one game this year. Stafford won’t have a problem having value in the easiest game he’ll have played yet this year.
Mark Sanchez ($5,000) was the starting quarterback for Philadelphia for the second half of the season last year. In those nine games, he exceeded his salary expected points per game seven times. In two-thirds of his games he’s had multiple touchdown passes, and hit the 300-plus yard passing bonus four times. You could make a very strong argument that Sanchez runs the Philadelphia offense better than Sam Bradford does. This week Sanchez is at the minimum price for a quarterback on DraftKings. He’s facing a Tampa Bay team that has given up multiple touchdown passes in five of its last six games, and he’s playing at home. If you need a cheap quarterback with upside, Sanchez is the guy you want.
Marshawn Lynch ($6,700) is one of my top running back plays this week. He had 122 rushing yards and a touchdown in San Francisco just four weeks ago, and now he plays at home. Lynch had 11 of his 13 rushing touchdowns at home last year. This year it’s been two of his three rushing touchdowns at home. He also has had a touchdown in four of his last five games when playing San Francisco. Penciling in Lynch for a score and good yardage in this game seems like an easy move. Getting him in your lineup this week should be an easy move as well.
Since Charcandrick West ($4,500) was given the starting job in Week 7, all he has done is smash value with at least 20 rushes and a touchdown in three straight games. Now he gets a matchup against the most fantasy-friendly team for running backs, San Diego. Only one running back has failed to exceed their salary expected points per game when playing San Diego. San Diego has also had seven games where running backs have scored more than 19 DraftKings points. West is very likely to smash value again this week, needing only 13.5 DraftKings points to do so.
Starting Tony Romo this week would be a risky move, but his presence on the field should open things up more for Darren McFadden ($5,000). My guess is that Dallas is going to want to make sure Romo doesn’t take too many hits, which would mean less dropbacks and more handoffs. That will lead to McFadden having value in five of his last six games if that happens. Miami is very fantasy-friendly for running backs, having given up more than 20 points to four running backs in its last four games. Even if things don’t go as planned for Dallas, McFadden is still a pass-catching back and will get value through the air as well. Starting McFadden is a very low risk play.