Saturday - Jan 19, 2019

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Finding Value for DraftKings Cash Games – Week 9

A good strategy if you have players in the Monday night game is to put that player into your flex position if you can. This way if you need to late swap that player you give yourself more options if you need to make that change. Rostering your Monday night player in your flex spot will let you swap for a running back, wide receiver, or tight end instead of just the one position of your Monday night player.

Why would you need to make that swap? Let’s put out this scenario: Say you’re looking over your head-to-head games on Monday (something you should do every Monday) and you come across one of your games where you’re losing and you and your opponent both have one player to play. Now DraftKings won’t show you who your opponent is rostering, but you can add up the salaries of who they’ve started already, do some math and come up with a reasonable guess of who that mystery player is. If you and your opponent are both starting the same player you’re going to want to swap for a different player. Even if the player you’re swapping for is someone you don’t feel as confident about and don’t think that player will score as many points as your current one, you are still going to want to make the swap. The thing is if you don’t change your roster you’re going to lose no matter what. There is no way for you to win if you both have the same player, but if you do make that swap you at least give yourself a CHANCE to win.

I had this situation happen a couple of weeks ago with Baltimore playing Arizona on Monday night. I had a few games where I was losing and a few of my opponents and I both had Larry Fitzgerald to play. So I switched to John Brown. I had way more confidence in Fitzgerald and swapping down to Brown meant I would leave almost $2000 of salary on the table, but if I left those rosters with Fitz in I was going to lose. I could have gone to Justin Forsett, Chris Johnson, Steve Smith, or Crockett Gillmore, but I thought Brown had the most upside and I needed that upside if I was going to pull off a win. At this point with one player to play I’m not thinking about that player’s floor I’m thinking about his ceiling. I need lots of points and if he flops, I lose like I was going to anyways. Swapping to Brown gave me a chance to win if Fitz had a down game and Brown outperformed him. This was Week 7 and Fitzgerald got 6.9 DK points and Brown had 16.5, which ended up winning me a few more of my head-to-head games. Making this late swap made me a bit more profit than doing nothing, and this is the perfect example of why you should go through this process on Mondays, use the late swap feature, and give yourself a chances to win more money.

Quarterback

This week will be the first time Peyton Manning ($6300) has been back in Indianapolis since Week 7 of the 2013 season. That game Manning threw for 386 yards and three touchdowns. Manning certainly hasn’t played like himself with just two passing touchdowns over his last four games, but I’m guessing a return to his old home town will give him a boost to give his old fans a good show. The Colts have given up an average of two passing touchdowns over their last four games and two 300-plus yard passing games as well. Manning showed us last week he’s still got the arm to throw for a ton of passing yards, but he’ll need to find the end zone. I think this is the week he gets back on track and he’s the cheapest he’s been all year.

Tom Brady ($8500) is really expensive, but if you make it work, getting him in your lineup will be worth it. Brady’s lowest stat line of the year has been 275 passing yards and two touchdowns. He should have no problem exceeding that against the Redskins this week. Washington has given up multiple touchdown passes in four of their last five games, which included games against Sam Bradford, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Jameis Winston. Brady has been averaging 29.8 DK points in his four home games this year, and with an implied team total points of forty based on Vegas odds, you can be safe that he’ll have value this week.

Matt Ryan ($7100) is a guy I won’t be rostering at all this weekend. While I think the Falcons will win, I think the fact that the Niners are bad against the run and the pass means that Devonta Freeman will be running a lot in the second half. That will limit Ryan’s passing attempts and limit the amount of fantasy points he can score, while lowering his fantasy floor and ceiling. Ryan’s biggest fantasy game this year was 24.1 DK points, which is pretty low for a guy who costs $7100. Andrew Luck who costs just $100 less than Ryan has had two games with over 29 DK points in just six games this year. The odds of Ryan having value this week are low, and he has zero upside.

 

Running Back

I really like Mark Ingram ($6500) this week against the Tennessee. The Titans look tough against the run ranking as the seventh toughest defense for running backs to go against, but this is more due to a favorable schedule than being a tough run stuffing team. They’ve played Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Buffalo with no LeSean McCoy, and Houston with no Arian Foster. No true workhorse running back existed on any of those teams when the Titans played them. The two games a true number one back has faced the Titans they gave up 22.8 DK points to Lamar Miller and 18.0 DK points to Devonta Freeman. The real numbers we should be looking at are the 4.3 yards per carry and the 118.7 rush yards per game that the Titans allow. With Ingram getting a majority of the carries for the Saints and not giving up red zone carries to Khiry Robinson anymore, Ingram should have no problem having value this week.

DeMarco Murray ($6400) is going to want to show the Cowboys front office why they should have re-signed him instead of letting him hit free agency when he travels to Dallas this weekend. Think of it as a revenge game for Murray. While I don’t think Murray is a good fit for the Eagles offense, Chip Kelly keeps throwing him out there, and you can bet big, Murray is going to be playing extra hard in this game. This also isn’t the same Dallas team the Eagles played in Week 2. The Cowboys offense is really hurting and my guess is Philly gets up early, meaning lots of rushes for Murray in the second half. Murray has had value in half of his games this year, and this game should be another with him playing with a chip on his shoulder.

About Curt Kestila

Curt has been with FantasySharks since 2011. His passion for fantasy football started in college and hasn't stopped since. Every season renews his hunger for another fantasy football season. He grew up in Minnesota and is an avid Vikings fan, but now resides in Dallas, Texas.