Saturday - Aug 24, 2019

Home / Commentary / The Fire Sale: I’m Down with ADP

The Fire Sale: I’m Down with ADP

Dion Lewis, RB New England Patriots (ADP: 62) – Patriots fans can make an argument that Lewis’ injury cost them a Super Bowl title last year. That’s how important he was to their offense. James White is an average talent. Before getting hurt, Lewis caught at least four passes in six of the seven games he played. He went over 90 yards of total offense four times and scored four touchdowns. I don’t worry about a crowded backfield in New England. That’s a misconception. When Bill Belichick has a talented player he utilizes him and Lewis was clearly the most effective running back on the team last season. His current sixth round ADP is a gift.

Corey Coleman, WR Cleveland Browns (ADP: 64) – Too many owners are watching Baylor highlights and being sucked into Coleman. I hate to break bad news here but Coleman isn’t playing for Baylor anymore. He plays for the Browns. Robert Griffin is done. I’m one of the biggest Hue Jackson supporters on the planet and even he can’t revive that mentally weak disaster. I expect rookie Cody Kessler to be under center by mid-October. Listen, you shouldn’t have to read my column to know not to draft a Browns rookie receiver over Allen Hurns, John Brown, Tyler Lockett and Eric Decker. That’s amateur hour nonsense.

Tyler Lockett, WR Seattle Seahawks (ADP: 66) – Lockett with an ADP of 66 is insane. Lockett came in as a rookie and the Seattle coaching staff didn’t really have a role for him. They knew Lockett was a dangerous return man and they wanted to get him involved some on offense. However, after catching 51 balls for 664 yards and six scores as a rookie, Lockett is going to have a much bigger role this year. The worst thing people can do is look back to last season and think things will be exactly the same. We know Lockett is a dangerous deep threat but if you watched him at Kansas State, he has the ability to run every route. Pete Carroll and his staff have had an entire offseason to work Lockett into the offense. He’ll easily outperform his ADP and many of the receivers being selected ahead of him.

Allen Hurns, WR Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP: 68) – People still don’t believe. I took Hurns in Round 10 in every league last year and everyone laughed at me. Amazingly, you can still get him in Round 7. The guy is a stud. I don’t know how many more times I have to say it. Maybe it will help if Chris Berman gives him an unfunny, outdated nickname.

Jeremy Langford, RB Chicago Bears (ADP: 87) – Trusting John Fox with a fantasy running back is like trusting Chris Christie to watch your food while you run to the bathroom. It usually doesn’t end well for you. Still, Matt Forte is gone and getting Langford in the seventh or eighth round represents tremendous value at the running back position. Even if Langford isn’t the bell cow Forte was, he’ll see enough volume to warrant a selection that late in the draft. Langford didn’t set the world on fire as a runner last season. He only averaged 3.6 yards per carry but he also added 22 receptions playing behind Forte. If you’re going with the zero running back theory early or just drafting based on value, Langford is well worth his reasonable ADP.

Danny Woodhead, RB San Diego Chargers (ADP: 95) – I say the same thing every year. Some people just don’t like Woodhead, so he’s always undervalued. Woodhead is like that kid you hated in gym class who tries really hard during first period when everyone else could care less. Overachievers always rub a portion of society the wrong way but Woodhead is always going to have a big role in the Chargers offense and he’s always going to be a valuable fantasy asset, especially in PPR formats. Even if Melvin Gordon isn’t below average (which he is), Woodhead is once again a steal in this year’s fantasy drafts.

Carson Palmer, QB Arizona Cardinals (ADP: 97) – Are early drafters judging Palmer based on his last game; a meltdown in the playoffs against Carolina? If so, that’s a big mistake because Palmer is a top-5 fantasy quarterback with an ADP in Round 9. Is that something that interests you? It should. Palmer topped 300 yards nine times in 2015 and Arizona’s passing game could be even scarier this year with the continued development of John Brown and running back David Johnson. Palmer may never get it done in the playoffs but I love the Cardinals offense this season. The more Arizona offensive players you can get on your fantasy team, the better. I have no problem drafting Palmer as my starter in the eighth or ninth round.

Kirk Cousins, QB Washington Redskins (ADP: 108) – Cousins is my favorite player heading into the 2016 season. To be honest, given his ninth round ADP and what I’m expecting out of him this year, Cousins may be my favorite fantasy player ever heading into a season. It’s pretty obvious a majority of people simply refuse to buy into this guy. It’s ridiculous. Cousins has a cannon arm. He has a ton of weapons at his disposal, including arguably the second-best tight end in the NFL right now. Last year, Cousins led the NFL with a completion percentage just under 70 percent. He closed the season scoring 22 touchdowns and throwing just two interceptions in his last eight games. The guy was a stud and I see no reason why it won’t continue in 2016. Listen, fans and owners get too emotional over players. They get too opinionated on how much money a player is worth. I don’t give a darn how much money Cousins makes or doesn’t make. I only care what kind of stats he puts up every week. Looking at his physical tools, the weapons he has around him and the division he plays in, Cousins is primed to have another big fantasy season. I’ll gladly take him as my starter in every league at this price.

About Thomas Casale

Thomas began playing fantasy football back when owners had to mail in their starting lineups and work out trades over the phone. He started writing The Fire Sale in 1998. Since then his articles have appeared on numerous web sites sites including Fantasy Sharks, USA Today and SI.com.