Welcome to March Madness and the
Brew Crew Corner’s first glance of the running back strength of schedule for 2009. Now that the matchups are set, we can formulate which teams will have an easy time running the ball and which teams will struggle. This is based on opponents’ defensive ranking against the run, opponents’ rushing yards allowed and opponents’ rushing TDs surrendered. There are other factors to consider later on towards the start of the season such as injuries, players added and subtracted and rookies that are in the mix. For now we will look at the teams rushing potential as a group looking at the Top 10 easiest schedules and the Bottom 10 most difficult schedules.
Assisting me in analyzing the strength of schedule is an old friend of mine, Allan King. Allan and I go way back to my days in high school. He has been playing fantasy football since 1997 and participates in several leagues. He won a championship last season and is gearing up for more in 2009.
Top 10 Easiest Run SOS for 2009
|
||||
Rank
|
NFL Team
|
Run Rank
|
RYA
|
RTDs
|
1 |
Baltimore
|
19.00 |
123.52 |
16.50 |
2 |
Jacksonville
|
18.38 |
119.08 |
15.63 |
3 |
NY Jets |
18.31 |
116.93 |
14.19 |
4 |
Washington
|
18.19 |
122.96 |
16.19 |
5 |
Minnesota
|
17.81 |
120.86 |
16.88 |
6 |
Pittsburgh
|
17.69 |
121.46 |
15.94 |
7 |
San Diego
|
17.44 |
121.76 |
16.06 |
8 |
San Francisco
|
17.44 |
118.80 |
16.81 |
9 |
Arizona
|
17.44 |
118.50 |
17.06 |
10 |
Chicago
|
17.31 |
119.08 |
15.88 |
|
The Ravens have the top RB ease of schedule heading in to the 2009 season. The teams they face have an average run defense ranked 19th overall while allowing 123.5 RuYDs and 16.5 RuTDs in 2008. The Ravens last year went with a three-headed monster of Willis McGahee, Le’Ron McClain and Ray Rice. McClain led the team with 902 RuYDs and 10 RuTDs. Look for
It’s tough to predict who will emerge as
The Jaguars are second behind
Being in line to be an every-down back, coupled with the schedule the Jaguars face, I think Jones-Drew will be one of the first RBs selected in fantasy drafts this season. He’s shown he can carry the load, and he’s also the goal-line guy. Unless
The Jets were productive last year in running the ball as they finished ninth overall with 125.2 RuYDs per game. The offense struggled down the stretch, however, as Thomas Jones failed to rush for more than 78 yards in the final four weeks of the season and had only two RuTDs in that span. He did lead the team with 1,312 RuYDs and 13 RuTDs. He had some of his touches taken away by Leon Washington, who scored six times last year, with two RuTDs in the final three games. The passing offense will need to be address during this offseason as Brett Favre has retired and the team let free agent Laveranues Coles sign with the Bengals. They will need to be effective in the pass to keep from teams stacking the bocks on Jones and Washington. They face the third-easiest run schedule with teams ranking 18.3 overall on run defense with 116.7 RuYDs allowed and 14.2 RuTDs.
For me, I would say the offensive struggles for the Jets down the stretch were due to Favre’s inconsistency. However, the Jets will still miss him, and I’m not sure Kellen Clemens, Erik Ainge or Brett Ratliff is the answer at QB for the Jets. Thomas Jones is a safe pick, he doesn’t offer a lot of upside, but, I think he will still be fairly productive as the Jets are still going to want to run the ball.
Last season saw Clinton Portis put up Top 10 numbers as he rushed for 1,487 RuYDs with nine RuTDs. The addition of Shaun Alexander was a non-factor as Alexander had just 11 carries for 24 RuYDs. Ladell Betts posted just 206 RuYDs which showed that Portis carried the load. The Redskins finished as the eighth-best team in rushing yards with 130.9 RuYDs per game. They face teams ranked 18.2 in run defense with 123 RuYDs and 16.2 RuTDs allowed. Another year under Jim Zorn could mean the run game continues to shine.
Clinton Portis will be a first round pick, and deservedly so. He produced very well last year, even when he was nicked up by injuries. Portis’ toughness can’t be questioned, and the Redskins’ commitment to getting him the ball make him a very solid pick. Another year under the same offense should benefit Jason Campbell which will also help Portis’ numbers. Alexander was released and no longer a factor. Betts might just be the most important handcuff in fantasy football. If you draft Portis, make sure you draft Betts.
Adrian Peterson put up 1,760 RuYDs with 10 RuTDs and Chester Taylor had 399 RuYDs with four RuTDs which put the Vikings at fifth overall in RuYDs per game with 146.1. They have a better QB situation this season after trading for Sage Rosenfels and still have one of the best offensive lines in the league. They match up against the fifth-easiest run schedule with teams ranking 17.8 overall allowing 120.9 RuYDs and 16.9 RuTDs. Peterson could rush for 2,000 yards if he can fix his fumbling problems.
Peterson will go No. 1 in most drafts this year. And why not? He’s only entering his third year (about to enter his prime), his schedule is favorable, the Vikings improved at QB by trading for Rosenfels, the line he runs behind is one of the best in the league, and his numbers can still only go up. If Betts is the most important handcuff in fantasy football then
The Steelers are tricky for me at RB. Parker is still pretty solid. But,
After some brief drama this off season, Ladainian Tomlinson will return this season for
LT2 was the first pick in most drafts last year. That won’t happen this year. But, I agree that he probably is still worth a first round pick (in 12-team leagues at least). Sproles came out of nowhere last year and he is an explosive little guy. But, I don’t think he’s capable of being an every-down back. He fits the third down role and passing downs role nicely. LT2 should get the majority of touches and be the goal-line guy. I think he can bounce back this year. Sproles (like Betts and Taylor) is a very important handcuff.
Frank Gore was one of the top rushers in the league last year before injuring himself in Week 14. He posted just 58 RuYds the rest of the season. This season he has a chance to run well on an up-and-coming offense. San Franscisco faces the eighth-easiest schedule with teams ranked 17.4 in run defense allowing 118.8 RuYDs and 16.8 RuTD. Gore had just six RuTDs on the ground and is only averaging 5.5 RuTDs a year since entering the league in 2005. That hurts his value in leagues that score heavy for TDs. He should have another great year as he will be the featured back, something that is rare now in the NFL as most teams are moving away from letting one RB carry the full load.
Gore should continue to be one of the top rushers this season. The 49ers offense should continue to improve with Shaun Hill at QB. Gore isn’t the most sexy pick, but, you could do a lot worse than him with your first pick. In a league where RBBC continues to grow, Gore is a valuable RB who gets a lot of touches and will put up very solid numbers as your first round pick, with upside.
The Cardinals are going to continue to be pass-happy. That’s a given. It worked so well for them last year, they will stick with it (with or without Anquan Boldin). James continues to ask for his release, which hasn’t happened yet. Tim Hightower showed signs of being a starting RB. But,
Matt Forte hands down was one of the best steals on draft day. If you did your homework you probably got him for good value. Forte was the best RB in fantasy last year rushing for 1,238 RuYDs and eight RuTDs while adding 63 receptions for 477 ReYDs and four ReTDs. You want a RB like this that can be used on all downs and can get you points both on the ground and through receiving. The Bears face the 10th-easiest schedule as they play teams ranked 17.3 overall on run defense with 119.1 RuYDs allowed and 15.9 RuTDs.
Forte will go in the first round of most drafts this year. He’s entering his second season. And, he’s the featured back in
Remember the Strength of Schedule is a reference tool for you to use when you’re putting together your draft guide. It does not suggest that since
Top 10 Hardest RB SOS
|
||||
Rank
|
NFL Team
|
Run Rank
|
RYA
|
RTDs
|
10 |
Oakland
|
15.81 |
116.02 |
14.88 |
9 |
Cleveland
|
15.63 |
114.58 |
15.38 |
8 |
St. Louis
|
15.56 |
112.81 |
15.31 |
7 |
Miami
|
15.50 |
110.08 |
12.81 |
6 |
NY Giants |
15.31 |
114.18 |
13.81 |
5 |
Indianapolis
|
15.25 |
111.86 |
14.44 |
4 |
Green Bay
|
14.81 |
114.65 |
15.06 |
3 |
Carolina
|
14.13 |
108.21 |
12.00 |
2 |
Detroit
|
13.69 |
108.83 |
14.13 |
1 |
Atlanta
|
13.56 |
107.99 |
12.06 |
|
When considering selecting RBs that will carry your team, you have to factor in the schedule they face. Last year’s top RBs could be struggle in 2009.
The Raiders still remain a work in progress. With a new year comes another head coach leading this team. This is the fourth head coach since 2004 with 12 wins among them. That’s three wins a year, on average. Many had hope that Darren McFadden would have the success that Adrian Peterson had his rookie year but injuries, inconsistent offense and a committee at the running back position limited McFadden to just 499 RuYDs and four RuTDs. Almost half of those yards have come in the first two weeks of the season. Justin Fargas lead the team with 855 RuYDs and four RuTDs with Michael Bush adding 419 RuYDs and three RuTDs. There hasn’t been any big off season moves for the silver and black but they were effective in running the ball last as they finished 10th in rushing with 124.2 RuYDs but only nine RuTDs as a team. They face the 10th-hardest run schedule with teams ranking 15.8 overall in run defense with 116 RuYDs and 14.9 RuTDs. The AFC West faces the NFC East this season which had the Eagles (fourth), the Redskins (eighth) and the Giants (ninth) in the Top 10 in run defense with the Cowboys 12th.
The Raiders RBs are hard to figure out. They have three RBs and it’s anyone’s guess which one will get the most touches, their schedule is tough, and JaMarcus Russell is still unproven at this point. Don’t get me wrong if you can get McFadden later on in your draft, I’d still go for it. He has a lot of upside and he could potentially break out. Bush showed signs of being a legit NFL RB late in the season, and he should get his share of touches as well. Fargas figures to hang around as well. I like McFadden and Bush both over Fargas.
During the 2007 season, the Cleveland Browns had the eighth-best offense in the league but finished just 31st overall last year. They are thin at RB as they have only three on the current roster with one FB. Jamal Lewis still managed to post a 1,000 yard season but had only four RuTDs. He’s posted over 10,000 yards for his career and might have nothing left in the tank. The Browns traded away Kellen Winslow Jr. to Tampa Bay and Donte’ Stallworth status’ is uncertain following his accident in Miami. Talks of Braylon Edwards being traded this offseason have also surfaced which means the offense is a mess and should be avoided this season in drafts. It doesn’t help that they face the ninth-hardest run schedule with teams ranking 15.6 in run defense with 114.6 RuYDs allowed and 15.4 RuTDs. Also keep in mind that they had just six RuTDs on the season, the lowest total in the league, tied with
I agree 100% the Browns offense took a big step backward last season, and I see no real improvements so far in the off season to convince me their offense will return to 2007 form this upcoming season. Brady Quinn is going to start (unless he’s traded as some rumors have suggested) and the RB situation just isn’t very attractive. Lewis has a lot of miles on him and I am not sure how much of a workload Jerome Harrison is ready to handle. Factor in the difficult schedule the Browns face and all signs point to avoiding the RB situation in
The Rams are a team in rebuilding, make no mistake about that. With Torry Holt moving on, the team is left with Donnie Avery as their top WR. Steven Jackson has the potential to be a top-tier stud but injuries over the last two seasons have limited him from having the kind of season he had back in 2006. Still he ended the season on a high note and the GM has pledge to build the team around him. The Rams face the eighth-hardest run schedule as teams rank 15.6 in run defense with 112.8 RuYDs and 15.3 RuTDs. If anyone has the potential to overcome a difficult schedule, it would be
Many teams that struggled last season such as the Lions, Rams and Chiefs will look to rebound like the Dolphins did in 2008.
The Giants were the league’s best rushing team last year as they ran for 157.4 RuYDs and added 19 RuTDs. This is a run-first team and ran well against a very tough schedule in 2008. The team re-signed Brandon Jacobs who rushed for 1,089 RuYDs and 15 RuTDs. The team let go of Derrick Ward, who ran for 1,025 RuYDs but Ahmad Bradshaw should pick up the slack. Don’t wait to long to take Bradshaw as your handcuff because Jacobs will miss time to injury due to his running style. Danny Ware should pick up the role as the third RB. It won’t be easy for the Giants in 2009 as they face the sixth-toughest run schedule in the league. Teams they face ranked 15.3 in overall run defense with 114.2 RuYDs and 13.8 RuTDs. The Giants have one of the best lines in the league and enough talent to perform as they did in 2008.
I was kind of surprised when the Giants let Ward go. He complemented Jacobs quite nicely. But, this is Jacobs’s show. Barring injury I expect another solid season from Jacobs. And, you should feel pretty good if you land him as your RB No. 2. Jacobs will continue to run behind a great o-line and get all the goal-line work. I expect Bradshaw to handle third down and passing situation duties. The Giants face a tough schedule, but, their o-line, and running game is too good to let Jacobs slide in your draft. I agree if you draft Jacobs don’t wait too long to lock up Bradshaw.
Joseph Addai was on my list of most disappointing fantasy players last season. Drafted on average fourth overall, he finished 37th in Shark leagues as he ran for just 544 RuYDs and five RuTDs. I wouldn’t spend a first-round pick on Addai as he could disappoint again. We will have to monitor the teams approach as the Colts enter the Post-Dungy era. They let Dominic Rhodes go this offseason who led the team with six RuTDs on 538 RuYDs. The Colts were 31st in rushing in 2008 with only 79.6 RuYDs and 13 RuTDs. They face the fifth-toughest run schedule as teams ranked 15.25 overall against the run with 111.9 RuYDs and 14.4 RuTDs.
Addai was considered a bust by many fantasy owners last season. For a Top 5 pick, he was truly disappointing. That said, I think Addai can bounce back nicely this season. He’s still young, the Colts o-line is still pretty decent, and let’s face it, they still have Peyton Manning. Addai may go late in the first round of fantasy drafts, but, if you can land him as your RB No. 2, I feel that will be very good value. Sure, their schedule is tough, and Tony Dungy has retired. But, I still expect the Colts to be the same Colts we have seen the last few years. As of now,
The Packers had an inconsistent season but finished in the middle of the league in run offense. They ranked 17th in the league with 112.8 RuYDs and 11 RuTDs. Ryan Grant lead the way with 1,203 uninspiring RuYDs and only four RuTDs. Grant posted four games with 100+ yards. He had the bulk of the carries as Brandon Jackson had just 45 carries for 248 RuYDs and one RuTD. The Packers will struggle this year as they face the fourth-toughest run schedule as teams ranked 14.8 against the run with 114.7 RuYDs and 15.1 RuTDs.
Grant had a very average season after he burst on to the scene in 2007. This season, I expect more of the same from 2008. They have a tough schedule, and
The Panthers are a good running team. They finished third in the league with 152.3 RuYDs and lead the league with 30 RuTDs, six more than
I don’t expect Williams to have a season like last. But, I could be wrong. He was a steal for fantasy owners last season. But, as said above
The always rebuilding Detroit Lions. If they won twice as many games this season, would they still be 0-16? The fact is they have nowhere else to go but up. The run game has been a problem for this team and they ranked last season 30th in the league with just 83.2 RuYDs and 10 RuTDs. Kevin Smith led the way and posted decent 976 RuTDs and eight RuTDs. Good player to have off the bench in your leagues as he can catch the ball out the backfield. He might be drafted too early in drafts because he is the started but the team still has a long way to go in rebuilding and face the second-worst run schedule in the league. They will be facing teams ranked 13.7 with 108.8 RuYDs and 14.1 RuTDs. The will also be playing seven games against Top 10 run defenses as they go up against the Vikings (first) twice, the Steelers (second), the Ravens (third), the Bears (fifth) twice and the Redskins (eighth). That schedule alone should make you think twice about taking Smith in the early rounds.
The Lions? Well, they’ll always have 0-16, right? Smith is a pretty good RB. He put up decent numbers as a rookie on the worst team in football. He’s a solid flex option and possibly RB No. 2 , but, I wouldn’t trust him for much more then that. I agree that Smith will probably go too early in drafts this summer. I’d rather take a stud WR (like teammate Calvin Johnson) over Smith.
The Falcons overcame plenty of adversity to make the playoffs behind rookie QB Matt Ryan. That success was due to the running game which
The Burner was a beast for the Falcons last year and fantasy owners alike. Turner will undoubtedly go in the Top 5 in most fantasy drafts this year. But, there are a couple causes for concern here. One is the obvious difficult schedule, second is the Falcons aren’t going to surprise anyone this year, and lastly Turner took on a big workload last season, and there is the possibility of it catching up with him this season, or possible getting injured. On the bright side, Ryan is only going to get better so defenses can’t stack the box against the running game. Turner is a workhorse RB, and you can feel confident with him as your RB No. 1 as long as you know the small risks involved.
I hope that everyone is doing well with their brackets. I still have my final four alive in two of my brackets, so we will see what the Sweet 16 will bring. Continue to enjoy your off season and get ready for the 2009 draft season.
Thanks again to Allan King for his assistance with this article and thank you for reading.
Below is the complete RB Strength of Schedule for all 32 teams.
|
||||
Rank
|
NFL Team
|
Run Rank
|
RYA
|
RTDs
|
1
|
Baltimore
|
19.00
|
123.52
|
16.50
|
2
|
Jacksonville
|
18.38
|
119.08
|
15.63
|
3
|
NY Jets
|
18.31
|
116.93
|
14.19
|
4
|
Washington
|
18.19
|
122.96
|
16.19
|
5
|
Minnesota
|
17.81
|
120.86
|
16.88
|
6
|
Pittsburgh
|
17.69
|
121.46
|
15.94
|
7
|
San Diego
|
17.44
|
121.76
|
16.06
|
8
|
San Francisco
|
17.44
|
118.80
|
16.81
|
9
|
Arizona
|
17.44
|
118.50
|
17.06
|
10
|
Chicago
|
17.31
|
119.08
|
15.88
|
11
|
Seattle
|
17.31
|
118.07
|
16.50
|
12
|
New Orleans
|
17.25
|
117.16
|
14.13
|
13
|
Denver
|
16.88
|
118.53
|
14.38
|
14
|
Buffalo
|
16.81
|
115.53
|
13.38
|
15
|
Dallas
|
16.63
|
116.78
|
14.81
|
16
|
Tennessee
|
16.44
|
112.69
|
14.44
|
17
|
Kansas City
|
16.25
|
116.80
|
14.88
|
18
|
Houston
|
16.25
|
114.06
|
14.38
|
19
|
Cincinnati
|
16.19
|
117.87
|
15.25
|
20
|
Philadelphia
|
16.00
|
115.45
|
15.13
|
21
|
Tampa
|
15.94
|
112.25
|
13.38
|
22
|
New England
|
15.94
|
112.07
|
13.94
|
23
|
Oakland
|
15.81
|
116.02
|
14.88
|
24
|
Cleveland
|
15.63
|
114.58
|
15.38
|
25
|
St. Louis
|
15.56
|
112.81
|
15.31
|
26
|
Miami
|
15.50
|
110.08
|
12.81
|
27
|
NY Giants
|
15.31
|
114.18
|
13.81
|
28
|
Indianapolis
|
15.25
|
111.86
|
14.44
|
29
|
Green Bay
|
14.81
|
114.65
|
15.06
|
30
|
Carolina
|
14.13
|
108.21
|
12.00
|
31
|
Detroit
|
13.69
|
108.83
|
14.13
|
32
|
Atlanta
|
13.56
|
107.99
|
12.06
|
|