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First Look: 2013 First Round

We’re only now about 250 days away from when most fantasy drafts will start in 2013.  It’s just around the corner, so now might be a good time to take a look at next year’s draft, specifically the first round.  This is just a snapshot of what it might look like and certainly a lot can and will change between now and August. 

Bearing that in mind, and based on everything we’ve seen thus far, here’s how the 2013 first round is shaping up to me.

1) Adrian Peterson

I just don’t understand the argument that would put Arian Foster over A.P.  I don’t get it.  I don’t even think it’s close.  It’s not like last year with Ray Rice and Arian Foster, where you’re basically right if you pick either one first overall.  If you pick Foster over A.P. you’re wrong.  You picked the wrong player. 

Anyone who has been watching football this year knows A.P. is the best running back in the NFL.  He has close to 400 more rushing yards than Foster and he’s also got more receiving yards.  While Foster has more touchdowns (16-10), A.P. has been more consistent, rushing for over 100 yards in seven straight games.  Foster has rushed for over 100 yards once in his last four games.  Peterson has been dominant in the last part of the season while Foster has 84 rushing yards, combined, over his last two games.

Peterson is the clear Number 1 pick.  As I said before, I don’t think it’s close.

2)  Arian Foster

To be clear, it’s not that I don’t like Arian Foster.  I just don’t think he’s the top pick in next year’s draft.  He is, however, the solid as a rock second overall pick.  His 16 touchdowns leads all running backs and he’s third in rushing yards among running backs.  He’s had three straight fantastic seasons and he’s earned owners’ trust. 

3)  Ray Rice

Ray Rice, Marshawn Lynch and Doug Martin are all pretty close in value.  For my money, Peterson and Foster are the clear-cut Number 1 and 2 and after them we go to the 2nd tier.  I’m giving Rice the edge because I trust him more than Lynch and Martin.  As Lynch gets older, he’s become a mainstay on the weekly Seahawks’ injury report.  He’s still managed to play and have another dominant season but since his stats are comparable to Rice’s, I have to look at Lynch as a higher injury risk and that’s how I give Rice the edge.

As far as Doug Martin goes, his rookie season was sensational, but Rice has been doing this for years, while we only have one season of Martin to look at.  The first round is not the place to be ballsy.  This is the safe round and I think that Rice, with his four straight stud seasons, is the safest and best pick at this point.

4)  Marshawn Lynch

Marshawn Lynch is having the best season of his career.  On pace for 1,500 rushing yards, he’s had seven 100+ rushing yard games with nine touchdowns.  No matter the matchup, Lynch has been one of the most reliable players in fantasy football this year.  He’s been bothered by back spasms but has still managed to post gaudy numbers.  With an improving offense, led by rookie sensation Russell Wilson, Lynch is poised to have another great season in 2013.

5)  Doug Martin

Second in scoring among running backs this year, Doug Martin has been nothing short of dynamic.  Since rushing for 251 yards and four touchdowns in Week 9, Martin has been one of the best players in fantasy football.  He plays in a vastly improved offense in Tampa Bay and in most years he’d be the NFL Rookie of the Year.  It’s hard for me to put a second year player in the first round, let alone above proven studs, and that’s why I have Martin at the five spot.  If he can repeat this year’s success, he has a chance to be in the Top 3 in 2014.

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