First Round Picks Finishing in the Top 10

 

 

In this edition of the

Brew Crew Corner, we take a closer look at your first round pick.

 

What is the likelihood of your first pick finishing in the top 10? It is hard for anyone to predict how much production each player will have let alone finishing in the top 10 overall. Many factors contribute to the success and failure of each player. Injuries, team performance and opportunities are some of the biggest factors to a player’s statistics.

 

We look at the average draft position of the top 12 players selected in redraft leagues according to myfantasyleagues.com ADP over the past 5 season.

 

Looking at the 2003 draft, here is the ADP of the top 12 players.

 

2003

   Drafted in Top 12

                 Finished Overall

1

       

Ladainian Tomlinson

         2

2

       

Ricky Williams

       

          10

3

       

Clinton

Portis

           

            8

4

       

Marshall Faulk

       

          31

5

       

Priest Holmes

        

          1

6

       

Deuce McAllister

    

          5

7

       

Shaun Alexander

   

          7

8

       

Edgerrin James

     

          12

9

       

Marvin Harrison

     

          19

10

     

Green, Ahman

       

          3

11

     

Travis Henry

                   14

12

     

Donovan McNabb

   

          35

 

From the top 12 players drafted in 2003, the average finish for a first round player was 12th overall. Seven players finished in the top 10.

 

Looking at the 2004 draft, here is the ADP of the top 12 players.

 

2004

   Drafted in Top 12

                 Finished Overall

1

       

Priest Holmes

         

         45

2

       

Ladainian Tomlinson

         3

3

       

Ahman Green

            

         28

4

       

Clinton

Portis

                   16

5

       

Deuce McAllister

              37

6

       

Shaun Alexander

              4

7

       

Jamal Lewis

 

                   79

8

       

Edgerrin James

     

          8

9

       

Randy Moss

 

                   80

10

     

Peyton Manning

      

          7

11

     

Daunte Culpepper

  

          1

12

     

Marvin Harrison

     

          20

 

From the top 12 players drafted in 2004, the average finish for a first round player was 27th overall. Only five players finished in the top 10.

 

Looking at the 2005 draft, here is the ADP of the top 12 players.

 

2005

   Drafted in Top 12

                 Finished Overall

1

       

Ladainian Tomlinson

         4

2

       

Shaun Alexander

   

          1

3

       

Peyton Manning

     

          22

4

       

Priest Holmes

          

          141

5

       

Edgerrin James

     

          5

6

       

Willis McGahee

      

          29

7

       

Daunte Culpepper

  

          210

8

       

Deuce McAllister

    

          231

9

       

Randy Moss

                     63

10

     

Domanick Davis

     

          37

11

     

Jamal Lewis

 

                   67

12

     

Corey Dillon

                     49

 

From the top 12 players drafted in 2005, the average finish for a first round player was 72nd overall. Only three players finished in the top 10.

 

Looking at the 2006 draft, here is the ADP of the top 12 players.

 

2006

   Drafted in Top 12

    

            Finished Overall

1

       

Ladainian Tomlinson

           1

2

       

Larry Johnson

          

          3

3

       

Shaun Alexander

   

          82

4

       

Tiki Barber

   

                   6

5

       

Peyton Manning

      

          8

6

       

Steven Jackson

     

          2

7

       

Rudi Johnson

                   12

8

       

Edgerrin James

     

          28

9

       

Ronnie Brown

        

          46

10

     

Clinton

Portis

        

          144

11

     

Carnell Williams

               116

12

     

Lamont Jordan

      

          232

 

From the top 12 players drafted in 2006, the average finish for a first round player was 57th overall. Only five players finished in the top 10.

 

Looking at the 2007 draft, here is the ADP of the top 12 players.

 

2007

   Drafted in Top 12

    

            Finished Overall

1

       

Ladainian Tomlinson

         2

2

       

Steven Jackson

     

          39

3

       

Larry Johnson

       

          127

4

       

Frank Gore

  

                   21

5

       

Joseph Addai

         

          7

6

       

Peyton Manning

     

          14

7

       

Shaun Alexander

   

          134

8

       

Brian Westbrook

    

          1

9

       

Willie Parker

                     49

10

     

Reggie Bush

 

                    45

11

     

Rudi Johnson

         

          198

12

     

Laurence Maroney

 

          114

 

From the top 12 players drafted last year, the average finish for a first round player was 63rd overall. Only thee players finished in the top 10.

 

In conclusion, we always go into a new season with a list of players everyone feels is worthy of a 1^st round pick After looking at the numbers, it shows that over the past five season, only 38% of the players selected in the first round actually finish in the top 10. You are basically taking 4 players drafted in the first round and tossing the rest. The most consistent player over the past 5 years has been

Ladainian Tomlinson

. He has only finished outside of the top 3 once over that span and is averaging a 2.4 overall finish.

 

When making your list of 1^st round players or drafting anywhere in the first round, keep this tidbit in the back of your notes. This year’s first round comes with plenty of question marks up and down the list so proceed with caution.

 

Thanks for reading.