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In this edition of the
Brew Crew Corner, we take a closer look at your first round pick.
What is the likelihood of your first pick finishing in the top 10? It is hard for anyone to predict how much production each player will have let alone finishing in the top 10 overall. Many factors contribute to the success and failure of each player. Injuries, team performance and opportunities are some of the biggest factors to a player’s statistics.
We look at the average draft position of the top 12 players selected in redraft leagues according to myfantasyleagues.com ADP over the past 5 season.
Looking at the 2003 draft, here is the ADP of the top 12 players.
2003
Drafted in Top 12
Finished Overall
1
Ladainian Tomlinson
2
2
Ricky Williams
10
3
Clinton
Portis
8
4
Marshall Faulk
31
5
Priest Holmes
1
6
Deuce McAllister
5
7
Shaun Alexander
7
8
Edgerrin James
12
9
Marvin Harrison
19
10
Green, Ahman
3
11
Travis Henry
14
12
Donovan McNabb
35
From the top 12 players drafted in 2003, the average finish for a first round player was 12th overall. Seven players finished in the top 10.
Looking at the 2004 draft, here is the ADP of the top 12 players.
2004
Drafted in Top 12
Finished Overall
1
Priest Holmes
45
2
Ladainian Tomlinson
3
3
Ahman Green
28
4
Clinton
Portis
16
5
Deuce McAllister
37
6
Shaun Alexander
4
7
Jamal Lewis
79
8
Edgerrin James
8
9
Randy Moss
80
10
Peyton Manning
7
11
Daunte Culpepper
1
12
Marvin Harrison
20
From the top 12 players drafted in 2004, the average finish for a first round player was 27th overall. Only five players finished in the top 10.
Looking at the 2005 draft, here is the ADP of the top 12 players.
2005
Drafted in Top 12
Finished Overall
1
Ladainian Tomlinson
4
2
Shaun Alexander
1
3
Peyton Manning
22
4
Priest Holmes
141
5
Edgerrin James
5
6
Willis McGahee
29
7
Daunte Culpepper
210
8
Deuce McAllister
231
9
Randy Moss
63
10
Domanick Davis
37
11
Jamal Lewis
67
12
Corey Dillon
49
From the top 12 players drafted in 2005, the average finish for a first round player was 72nd overall. Only three players finished in the top 10.
Looking at the 2006 draft, here is the ADP of the top 12 players.
2006
Drafted in Top 12
Finished Overall
1
Ladainian Tomlinson
1
2
Larry Johnson
3
3
Shaun Alexander
82
4
Tiki Barber
6
5
Peyton Manning
8
6
Steven Jackson
2
7
Rudi Johnson
12
8
Edgerrin James
28
9
Ronnie Brown
46
10
Clinton
Portis
144
11
Carnell Williams
116
12
Lamont Jordan
232
From the top 12 players drafted in 2006, the average finish for a first round player was 57th overall. Only five players finished in the top 10.
Looking at the 2007 draft, here is the ADP of the top 12 players.
2007
Drafted in Top 12
Finished Overall
1
Ladainian Tomlinson
2
2
Steven Jackson
39
3
Larry Johnson
127
4
Frank Gore
21
5
Joseph Addai
7
6
Peyton Manning
14
7
Shaun Alexander
134
8
Brian Westbrook
1
9
Willie Parker
49
10
Reggie Bush
45
11
Rudi Johnson
198
12
Laurence Maroney
114
From the top 12 players drafted last year, the average finish for a first round player was 63rd overall. Only thee players finished in the top 10.
In conclusion, we always go into a new season with a list of players everyone feels is worthy of a 1st round pick After looking at the numbers, it shows that over the past five season, only 38% of the players selected in the first round actually finish in the top 10. You are basically taking 4 players drafted in the first round and tossing the rest. The most consistent player over the past 5 years has been
Ladainian Tomlinson
. He has only finished outside of the top 3 once over that span and is averaging a 2.4 overall finish.
When making your list of 1st round players or drafting anywhere in the first round, keep this tidbit in the back of your notes. This year’s first round comes with plenty of question marks up and down the list so proceed with caution.
Thanks for reading.
